NFL Betting Analysis and Predictions: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills will host the New England Patriots for the second time this season and will be the third meeting between these AFC East rivals when they square off Saturday at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. The Bills have turned the tables on the perennial AFC East Champion Patriots with four wins in the past five games.
How New England and Buffalo Enter the Playoffs
The Patriots finished with a 10-7 record and closed the regular season by losing four of their last five games. They were also 10-7 against the spread (ATS).
The Bills won their last three games and covered the spread in all three.
So, these rivals come into the Wild Card Round going in opposite directions. Initially laying 4.5 or even 6.5 points on the Bills is the automatic knee-jerk reaction. However, upon further review, the Bills might not be a lock here.
The Patriots might be limping into Buffalo, but road teams that ended their season losers of three of the last four games are 5-6 straight-up, a highly profitable 8-2 ATS for 80%, and the under is an amazing 10-1.
Teams like the Bills on a winning streak of four games or more and facing a divisional foe are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS since 2007. That works against Buffalo in this Wild Card matchup.
Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points coming off two or more consecutive games averaging seven or more yards per pass, and facing an opponent that allowed 5.5 or fewer yards per pass on their last game, has produced a highly profitable 40-10-2 ATS record for 80% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons.
Mac Jones vs. the Bills' Defense
The Patriots sport the sixth-best offense averaging 27.2 points per game during the regular season. That offense is led by their rookie quarterback Mac Jones, who is playing better than his rookie status.
Over the years, betting on first-time playoff quarterbacks has been a significant losing proposition, but I make Jones the exception. He is a smart player who learned the Patriots playbook in seemingly half the time it took Tom Brady and Jones is going through his progressions like a highly experienced veteran.
Jones is going up against the NFL’s best scoring defense. The Bills, who have allowed an average of 17 PPG on the season. The Bills' defense ranks first with a 0.285 points per play ratio and first with a 30.8% allowed third-down conversion.
The Pick in New England at Buffalo Game
The Patriots rank No. 2 in points per game allowed with 17.8 and second on points-per-play allowed ratio at 0.292. The Patriots' red zone defense also ranks second. The Bills rank sixth.
I am on the Patriots plus 4.5 points.
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