Betting Analysis and Predictions: Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators
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When the Winnipeg Jets travel to Nashville to take on the Predators tonight, it will be a matchup of teams going in opposite directions, making it an interesting NHL betting play.
How Nashville and Winnipeg Enter the Game
The Predators allowed a pair of third-period goals during Tuesday's 3-1 home loss to Vancouver, extending their current losing streak to 0-3-1.
Before this slump, the Predators had outscored their opponents by 19 goals as they built a 12-1-1 win streak that began on Dec. 4.
During the hot win streak, the Predators scored 54 goals, for an average of 3.85 goals per game and allowed 34 goals for an average of 2.42 goals per game.
The four-game losing streak began with a truly terrible 4-1 loss to the Buffalo Sabers as –340 moneyline favorites.
Over this four-game losing stretch, the Predators have averaged 2.0 goals per game, scoring one goal in each of two games while their defensive efforts have allowed 16 goals and 4.0 goals per game. So, they are struggling at both ends of the rink.
The Jets have played five games over the past 30 days. In their previous game, they were coming off a five-day absence. They showed no signs of rust, getting out to an early 2-0 lead at Washington but couldn’t hold it, ultimately losing in overtime 4-3.
Still, the Jets are 4-1-1 over their past six games, a stretch that started Dec. 19.
Predators Come In As Favorites
The NHL betting markets opened with Nashville a –135 moneyline home favorite.
In early betting action, the money has been more on the underdog Jets, forcing the moneyline to –130.
The Circa Sportsbook has Nashville priced as a –128 money line favorite and is currently the lowest price available.
The Total opened at 5.5 goals and bets on the over are coming with a –120 vig.
So, my betting instincts tell me the total will move to six goals, giving bettors looking at the under a much better opportunity.
Stats to Look at In Predators vs. Jets Matchup
The Predators are the only NHL team not to have scored a short-handed goal this season. They rank 25th among the 32 teams in the NHL, with 26 short-handed goals allowed.
A metric commonly used by professional bettors is HDCF, which stands for the count of high danger scoring chances for that team. Similarly, HDCA represents the count of high danger scoring chances a team allows.
The Predators rank last with a 5.26% HDCF, and rank 24th, allowing 72 high danger goals.
They are also tied for last, scoring four goals considered a high danger for the opponent scoring opportunities. So, they are not generating enough high percentage scoring opportunities while allowing far too many outstanding scoring opportunities.
Jets at Predators Pick
I am leaning with the underdog Jets in this matchup.
Supporting this bet is a moneyline betting angle that has earned a 50-30 moneyline record, good for 63% winning bets and has made 32 units per unit wagered over the past five seasons.
Bet on road underdogs up to and including +150 using the moneyline that is playing only their third game in the past 10 days and are on a one or more-game losing streak.
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