Betting Analysis and Predictions: Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers
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The Philadelphia Flyers have been arguably the worst team in the NHL over the past six weeks.
In their previous game, the first of a three-game home stand, the Flyers ended a franchise worst 0-10-3 losing skid by defeating the Los Angeles Kings 4-3 in overtime as +150 moneyline home underdogs.
The Jets have also struggled of late. They ended a six-game winless streak Saturday with a 4-1 road win over the St. Louis Blues as +175 underdogs.
The two teams play at 7 p.m. ET today at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.
How This Game Shapes Up
The Flyers are seventh in the Metropolitan Division with a 14-22-8 record overall, just 36 points earned, and are 7-10-4 in home games for the season.
The Jets sit in the sixth position with an 18-16-7 record, earning 43 points, and are a decent 8-8-6 in road games on the season.
The Flyers rank 27th in the NHL, scoring an average of 2.50 goals per game. They are 19th by averaging 30.50 shots per game, 28th scoring on 15.4% of their power play opportunities, and 24th, allowing an average of 3.34 goals per game.
The Jets rank 18th by scoring an average of 2.88 goals per game, 10th averaging 33.37 shots per game, 12th scoring on 20.9% of their power play opportunities, and 18th allowing an average of 2.95 goals per game.
The Jets team leaders start with Kyle Connor, who has 44 points on 184 shots, Brendan Dillan posting a plus/minus rating of 12, Pierre-Luc Dubois with 52 penalty minutes, Connor Hellebuyck with 14 wins, and Eric Comrie allowing 2.34 goals per game.
The Flyers are led by Claud Giroux with 35 points, Cam Atkinson with a plus/minus 10 rating and taking 142 shots, Zack MacEwen with 51 penalty minutes, and Carter Hart with eight wins and allowing 2.87 goals per game.
These team leading statistics clearly show that the Jets are top to bottom the better team. But how should you spend your NHL betting money?
What are the Betting Lines for This Matchup?
The market for this NHL matchup opened with the Jets priced as a -130 moneyline road favourite and the Flyers priced as a +110-moneyline home underdog.
The total opened at 5.5 goals laying -120 vig meaning you must wager $120 to win $100 if betting on the over.
The market is beginning to show a few total prices at 6, but if you are interested in the under, you must lay -120 to bet under six goals.
The puck line opened with the Jets -1.5 goals +175 vig and the Flyers +1.5 goals and -210 vig. The market has seen a steady movement reflecting action on the Jets and is now priced at the Jets -1.5 goals and +165 at BetMGM.
What Are the Analytics Suggesting as a Possible Best Bet?
The Flyers allowed two third-period goals that forced overtime and survived with a rare win.
That win was hardly a confidence booster, and now the Jets come into the Wells Fargo Center on two days' rest.
Betting on road teams using the moneyline that are playing with two days of rest and are coming off a solid win over a divisional foe have produced a 95-65 record for 59% winning bets, averaging a +115-moneyline wager, and making the $100 bettor a $4,450 profit over the past five seasons.
I like the Jets in this matchup.
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