NHL Picks: How Optimistic Are We on the Maple Leafs, Senators and Oilers?
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For our Canadian Sports Bettors, on behalf of Gambling.com. Happy Thanksgiving! It's a long weekend, a time for turkey and all the trimmings. Naturally, this is the week that the NHL season starts.
As for Ontario Sports Betting, this is again the time of perpetual hope for the Toronto Maple Leafs and even the Ottawa Senators. The 2022-23 NHL season expects to be quite a year full of ups and downs.
Our goal is to give a Canadian-style preview for every team north of the 49th parallel. The preview will be short and sweet. Do not worry. Why? That is simple. Here on the site, there will be Canadian betting previews at least several days a week and a “What Have We Learned” column every Monday.
Anyway, let’s get started. Our beginning teams include the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators, naturally. Also, all numbers are via Sports Interaction.
Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Preview
Again, the Toronto Maple Leafs are among the few teams near the top of the Stanley Cup ladder in terms of odds. Yes, Toronto again comes in second at 9.27 in terms of winning the silver chalice in 2022-23. For a team that has not advanced to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2004. Pat Quinn was the coach then.
This is despite a ton of regular-season success. Toronto is expected to top 100 points yet again. The question becomes can they find a way to advance to Round 2? Something always tends to go wrong with Toronto in the playoffs. Last year it was, ironically, depth scoring that failed them. That may be the most commonplace problem.
The prudent betting for Ontario Sports Bettors is to avoid any Stanley Cup Futures for Toronto. Frankly, for almost every Canadian team, aside from maybe two, that can be said confidently.
Leaning on the Maple Leafs regarding the regular season is a wise choice. Auston Matthews at 2.98 to win the Rocket Richard Trophy even has decent value. He scored 60 last season, and there is little reason to believe he won’t score 50-60, barring injury this season. If that number creeps anywhere north of 3, pounce on it.
Player props like shots on goal are a frequent target with players like Matthews. It will be a number to pick on early in the season as Toronto expects to benefit from favourable matchups. What else are we looking at for the Toronto Maple Leafs?
Sheldon Keefe for the Jack Adams Award is a bit shocking at 10.79. Yes, that tops the list at the bottom regarding value. Betting this now carries a negative weight. These are cases where a hyper-focus on Toronto is borderline predatory. Even the Atlantic Division odds at 3.04 are not juicy enough of a number yet.
What is enticing? There are props to look at. Expecting Matt Murray to produce a save percentage of .909 or worse is at 1.79. Ilya Samsonov could be the more effective goaltender.
If one wants to take a risk or two, look at Mitch Marner’s Under of 31.5 goals at 1.91. He has only scored more than 30 goals once. If he is asked to play a bit more defence, look out! William Nylander’s at the same number. He has a better chance of going Over here.
Matthews Over 105.5 points is a good prop at an even 1.85. He scored 106 points in 73 games and the young forward may crack the 110-point mark in 2022-23. This is a prop that could tilt negatively.
Anyway, to sum things up, lean the following:
- Auston Matthews for Rocket Richard at 2.98
- Mitch Marner Under 31.5 goals at 1.91
- Matt Murray Under .9095 save percentage at 1.79
- Auston Matthews Over 105.5 points at 1.85
That is just the tip of the iceberg. Next up is the Ottawa Senators.
Ottawa Senators Betting Preview
Again, being concise is vital here. The Senators carry some potential value with several traps on the horizon and uncertainty. That is what makes betting fun, right?
Then, of course, injury strikes the team already. Cam Talbot will be out for at least a month with an injury. Keep an eye out to see what his actual healing time becomes. Anton Forsberg and Ottawa do not have many back-to-backs between now and Christmas. Taxing one goalie even early is never good, but a spread-out schedule makes this less of an issue than usual.
Additional uncertainty involves players like Alex Formenton and Drew Batherson. Their role in a Hockey Canada sex scandal has yet to be determined. The reality is this will impact them as well as the Senators. It will follow Ottawa until its eventual resolution. What will happen as a result is unknown.
Those who are sports betting in Ontario should look at different angles when focusing on Ottawa. The Over on Tkachuk goals is 31.5 at 1.85 is one to pick. DeBrincat at over 72.5 points and Over 37.5 goals are both 1.85.
Some Canadian Sports Bettors inquired about Ottawa’s playoff chances. The lean here would be on NO (1.40) but wait a bit before wagering. One could get a little value if Ottawa gets off to a hot start. Use common sense.
Player props to consider would be:
- Alex DeBrincat Over 37.5 goals and Over 72.5 points at 1.85
- Brady Tkachuk Over 31.5 goals at 1.85
Edmonton Oilers Betting Outlook
Focusing on the high-profile teams first is by design here at Gambling.com. The goal is to have a little fun here and opine on what the Oilers could do this season. They will be the team with the most potential to advance deep into the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Edmonton carries the third-best odds to win the Stanley Cup among Canadian teams at 16.13.
There is a risk with the goaltending, no doubt about it, but Jay Woodcroft is a coach not afraid to make adjustments. At 14.70, do not bet him for the Jack Adams, however. That number needs to lengthen a little before considering the Oilers’ bench boss.
Calgary won the division last year, and the prevailing thought is that Edmonton might sneak this one. At 3.58, the Oilers are the second choice to win the Pacific Division. That number is going to fluctuate back and forth all season.
Then, there is Connor McDavid. Simply, he led the NHL with 123 points last season. The expectation is that it will happen again in 2022-23. McDavid, at 3.77, might be one of the better numbers to win the Hart Trophy all season. He was not happy losing to Auston Matthews last season.
Keeping things simple is vital. Therefore, bet with your head and not your heart.
Some Edmonton angles to bet on:
- Connor McDavid to win the Hart Trophy at 3.77
- Edmonton Oilers to win the Stanley Cup at 16.13
- Edmonton Oilers to win the Pacific Division at 3.58
- Connor McDavid Over 124.5 points at 1.85
We'll break down the rest of the Canadian teams in Part 2. This should get you off to a good start.
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