PGA Championship 2023 Picks: Top Canadian Players Betting Advice and Analysis
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The Wanamaker Trophy is up for grabs this weekend as golf’s second major, the 105th PGA Championship, gets going, this year at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y. The first tee time is 7 a.m. Thursday.
The club’s East Course, which has been rebuilt (including all the bunkers), toughened up, including made 231 yards longer, will test the world’s top golfers – including the ones toiling over on the LIV tour, with its meager television ratings, compared to the PGA. It will be nice to see big names like Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, and Dustin Johnson again.
The top PGA betting sites have their work cut out for them this week.
Who Are the Favourites at the PGA Championship?
PGAer Justin Thomas is defending his title, which he won last year at Southern Hills in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and current odds for him, according to BetMGM sportsbook, are 23.0 (odds opened with Thomas near the top, at 15.0).
The PGA versus LIV dynamic is an ongoing, interesting storyline – last month at the Masters it was PGAer Jon Rahm who took the Green Jacket, but tied for second, four strokes behind Rahm, were Koepka and Mickelson.
Rahm is on a real winning streak now – he and fellow PGAer Scottie Scheffler have won six of the 18 PGA Tour events in 2023. Scheffler won The Players, the other big tournament so far.
That’s why BetMGM has them on top of the betting board – current odds have them tied at 8.5. Rory McIlroy is at 13.0, followed by Koepka, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, all at 21.0.
Where are the Canadians, though? Current Canucks on the PGA Tour are Corey Conners, Michael Gligic, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, Taylor Pendrith, Adam Svensson and Nick Taylor. Gligic isn’t playing in this weekend’s tournament.
Odds for Canadians at the PGA Championship
Corey Conners, 81.0
The 31-year-old from Listowel, Ont., is currently ranked No. 29 in the world, the highest among Canadians.
He has a win this year at the Valero Texas Open, but what’s significant going into this weekend is his accuracy – Conners is 10th on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation (70.29 per cent).
That stat will play this week, avoiding the deep East Course bunkers – each was either removed, restored, or restored. The greens are firmer, faster, truer, more consistent.
Adam Hadwin, 201.0
Opening at BetMGM at 151, Hadwin, 35, is the veteran among the Canadian crew and is currently ranked 71st in the world. There’s just one PGA Tour win to his name – Valspar Championship in 2017. But the 35-year-old has had 36 Top 10 finishes out of 234 events played.
Hadwin is accurate and putts well – sixth on the PGA Tour in putting from inside 10 feet, 61st in GIR percentage.
Not at Conners’ level, but still good, and necessary at Oak Hill, to stay out of the thick rough and deeper bunkers.
Mackenzie Hughes, 251
Like Hadwin, a solid pick looking over some of the different betting markets, with two PGA Tour wins, 105/181 cuts made, and 18 Top 10 finishes since joining the tour in 2017.
Hughes is from Hamilton – not too far from Rochester, so he is familiar with the weather conditions and how the course will play based on the time of the year.
Hughes sits 34th on the tour in putts per round (28.25) and fifth in par 3 scoring average.
Adam Svensson, 251
The 29-year-old from Surrey, B.C., joined the tour in 2019 and has one career win – RSM Classic last November. He doesn’t particularly drive the ball that far – 289.8 in driving distance, 170th on the tour – so he won’t be able to out-drive a lot of the obstacles.
It's just his second major, but he is currently the second-highest-ranked Canadian in the world, behind Conners, at 58. He is also ranked sixth on tour in terms of lowest round – a 62 in the third round of The RSM Classic.
Nick Taylor, 251
Another vet, at 35, joined the tour in 2015. The native of Winnipeg has two PGA tour wins, is 151/243 in cuts made, and has 17 Top 10 finishes.
The scrambling from the rough percentage stat is interesting, considering how thick and gnarly the rough will be at Oak Hill. That percentage highlights how many times the player scores par or better after missing the green in regulation. And Taylor ranks 14th on the PGA Tour in that (65.09 per cent). He also ranks sixth in putting average – 1.698.
The best finish for him in the PGA Championship was a T68 in 2015.
Taylor Pendrith, 401
Pendrith can hammer the ball off the tee – his current average distance is 32nd on the PGA Tour. The course length at Oak Hill for the pros is 7,390 yards. So that plays into Pendrith’s strength.
These are for outright wins, according to BetMGM. A lot has to go right for any of the Canadians, including Conners – who has three Top-10 Masters finishes – to win this thing.
Picks: What the Markets Say About Canadian Players at the PGA
Have a look around at some of the other markets.
NorthStar Bets has Conners at 3.5 to finish Top 20, Hadwin at 5.0, Hughes at 7.0 (they also have Mickelson at 7.0).
Proline has Hadwin at 1.75 to miss the cut, Conners at 2.37. PointsBet Canada has a Top Canadian market, with Conners at 3.0, Hadwin at 5.0. Pendrith is last out of the six at 7.5.
My best bet is Conners for a Top 20 finish – BetRivers has that at 3.5.
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