Three Reasons to Take the Bills Against the Jets
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The Buffalo Bills sit at 9-3, are the leader in the AFC East and and moved back up to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, after beating the New England Patriots 24-10 a week ago at Gillette Stadium. That’s three wins away from home in 12 days.
To get you ready for your NFL betting, let's look at Sunday's game against the New York Jets.
That meant that in their bye week, it was a time to rest and heal, before coming back to work Monday. Then, of course, the news hit this week that All-Pro edge rusher Von Miller actually tore his ACL in that Thanksgiving Day game against the Detroit Lions — it wasn’t just meniscus damage — and he is out for the season.
That’s a mammoth hit on the defensive side of the ball. The Hall of Famer lock was leading the team in sacks with eight.
This weekend they face off again against the New York Jets, at 1 p.m. at Highmark Stadium, an opportunity to wipe away perhaps this season’s biggest stain, that 20-17 loss in New York in Week 9.
“We are a better team when (Miller) is playing, no doubt about that,” quarterback Josh Allen said this week. “But when guys go down, we have guys who can step and be productive football players. So we will be playing determined football.”
This morning at DraftKings, the Bills are big favorites: -10 on the Spread, -460 on the Moneyline (getting 83 per cent of the handle).
Here are three reasons to take the Bills to cover:
Mike White Will Have a Tough Time Against the Bills' Defense
That brings us back to the rush defence and the loss of Miller. Last week against the Patriots, without Miller, they held Rhamondre Stevenson to 54 yards on 10 carries, 4.3 yards overall. The Bills' defense is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (1,222).
This week they’re up against Breece Hall (463 yards in rushing and a 5.8-yard average) and Michael Carter (370 yards, 3.7-yard average). The Jets are 20th in the league in rushing (115.1 yards per game).
On pass defence, they held Mac Jones to under 200 yards. Mike White is in at quarterback for the Jets as Zach Wilson is a healthy scratch. In two games, White is 53-of-85, and a 62.4 per cent completion percentage, 684 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Last week in their loss to the Vikings, he had zero TDs.
That combination of the Bills' pass defense (17th best in yards allowed per game, at 218.3) and the weather will be too much for White. Keep in mind the Bills didn’t have All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White and All-Pro safety Jordan Poyer in Week 9. They didn’t have LB Matt Milano in the lineup that game either.
The weather for Buffalo on Sunday says 90 per cent chance of snow before the game, then rain and snow after 2 p.m., with six- to eight-mile-per-hour winds.
Bills' Establishing the Run Game
A revelation this season has been the Bills establishing a run game to complement Allen’s passing attack (third-best in the league).
We always thought they needed more of a bruising fullback for those tough Buffalo weather conditions, but 5-foot-11, 190-pound rookie James Cook (323 yards, 5.4 average yards per carry) has complemented Devin Singletary quite nicely.
The Bills’ rushing attack is eighth in the NFL (136.3 yards per game).
Josh Allen is on a Mission
Allen finished that last Jets game 18-for-34, 205 yards, but two interceptions. Yes, he rushed for 86 and two touchdowns, but those two picks stood out. He also took five sacks that game – a sign of just how good the Jets' defense is.
“Obviously last game (against the Jets), I didn't feel like I played very well,” Allen said this week. “I made some boneheaded decisions but learning from those and just trying to make good decisions, and end every drive in a kick, whether it be a punt, field goal, or a PAT.”
Allen was ranked among the league leaders in interceptions back around that Jets game, but he’s brought that back to earth – currently tied for 31st in the NFL with 11 picks, and a 75.1 QBR. Remember that last Jets game was when Allen hurt his elbow, smashing it against a defender’s helmet on a follow-through, and it’s debatable whether he has been the same since. He was certainly more than fine against the Patriots – 223 yards, two touchdowns, 106.0 QB rating.
We’re betting on Allen using his legs more against the Jets Sunday, to help overcome the New York pass rush (two sacks and nine QB hits against Kirk Cousins last week in their loss to the Vikings) plus he’ll keep pushing that shorter pass game (just one pass against the Patriots went for more than 20 yards), propelling his team to a win.
“We have been in different situations and seen different defenses,” Allen said. “Establishing that run game has been very beneficial, keeping those defenses in check. We are better equipped now to adapt.”
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