NBA Betting Tips: How to Pick an MVP Award Winner

Date IconLast Updated: 2022 Sep 28
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NBA Betting Tips: How to Pick an MVP Award Winner

There isn’t a more individually-focused team game than NBA basketball. More times than not, the best player on the court’s team has the advantage, and it’s what makes the MVP race so thrilling every year for basketball betting enthusiasts.

When browsing the top bookmakers the usual suspects are in the running each year – it’s rare for a rising star to pop up that quickly into the MVP discussions – but there are a few trends and statistics to follow that will make your wager a smarter one.

Find a Winner

This may sound obvious, but it goes deeper than just finding a player on a winning team (which, thus, makes him more valuable). Consider that before 2018 over a span of 36 seasons, the MVP award winner’s team finished first in their conference a whopping 28 times. Six other MVPs finished second, one finished third (Michael Jordan, 1988) and one finished sixth (Russell Westbrook, 2017).

That means the average finish of the MVP award winner in his conference over the last four decades is 1.36, even with that Westbrook outlier (we’ll get to him later).

It’s not just that the MVP award winner is on a good team each year; he’s usually on a great team. If you’re searching for an MVP pick, consider the team that’s been built around him and whether they’re trending up enough to flirt with a top-3 standing in their conference.

There’s a difference between an MVP and a really good, even great, player. He’s got to make everyone else around him better, which means vaulting his team to a top spot in the conference and league.

A Storyline is Crucial

It’s important to remember exactly who’s voting for league MVP. It’s not the coaches or the players. It’s the media. And naturally, there’s nothing the media loves more than a good storyline. It’s simply not enough to post spectacular numbers or lead your team to the top of the standings – though both are required to be in the conversation.

More important is an angle and a storyline to attach to that player’s season. Consider the offseason the team had.

Did a fellow star leave in the offseason, leaving that player to carry the load? Did that player have success in the previous season’s playoffs and is ready to make the jump to super-stardom? Is the potential to break an NBA record in play? Could that player’s team be on the cusp of winning a conference title?

Finding a long-term, bigger-picture storyline to accompany the season you think that player will have goes a long way. The voters take it into consideration. Numbers are nice, but the story is what sells (and gets the vote). See the fourth bullet point for times when it’s mattered.

Find a Future Hall of Famer

The NBA is unique in the sense that winners of the MVP rarely come out of nowhere, and rarely are flashes in the pan. In the NFL a quarterback can catch fire and win the MVP and regress to the mean, and we’ve seen baseball players put together majestic seasons only to fade away.

The NBA is different. Since the award was first handed out 63 years ago in 1956 to Bob Petit, all but one player is either in the Hall of Fame or on pace to be inducted.

Thirty-two different players have won the award, and the 25 retired players are all in the Hall of Fame. Six active players who have won it (Nowitzki, LeBron, Durant, Curry, Westbrook, Harden) are all on pace.

The only non-future HOFer is Derrick Rose, who won in 2011 before crippling knee injuries halted his career trajectory. So when considering an MVP wager, ask yourself if this players is on his way to the Hall of Fame or might be in the early stages of a Hall of Fame career. In the NBA, sustained success matters when it comes to the MVP.


Check Out: Legal Ontario Sports Betting sites and major sports to bet on.


When in Doubt, Points Matter

There’s far more to basketball than scoring. We all know that. But it sure helps your MVP odds if, above all else, you can score. It almost always means you’re carrying the burden of leading your team each night, having the ball in your hands.

Four of the last five MVPs have led the league in scoring, and in the last 11 years only two MVPs have been outside the top five in points per game. But remember Step 2, about having a storyline?

The two outside the top five were Steph Curry in 2015, who set the NBA record for 3-pointers in a season. The other was Derrick Rose, who at 22 years old led the Bulls to an NBA-best 62 wins.

They had storylines attached to their names that made up for the lack of scoring. The offense in today’s NBA is as good as it’s ever been, meaning scorers are going to rack up the headlines. If all else fails, find yourself a scorer.

Now that you've got the basics down for betting the MVP market, lets check out the Rookie of the Year market.

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    Monster Casino Sportsbook is the new sports betting offering from this long established casino brand, with a small but select selection of sports to bet on.
  31. 40
    Stake.com Betting
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Betting Partner of UFC, Everton, & Watford FC
    Vast range of sports and markets on offer
    UEFA Champions League and More Live Streaming
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    100
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    38
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    The world's leading crypto sports betting site - Buy and bet with 19 different cryptocurrencies.
  32. 41
    Nine Sports
    Established 2021
    More Details
    Licensed Bookie With Top-Tier Security Protocol
    Tournaments for New and Returning Bettors
    Prompt Payouts Across All Payment Methods
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    16
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    NineCasinos Sportsbook is a fairly new bookmaker that covers dozens of betting markets and various sports events. It allows live sports betting, and offers a generous prize for sports tournaments.
  33. 42
    BetItOn Sportsbook
    Established 2020
    More Details
    Rising Star Operator of the Year' 2021
    Single or Acca Bets Cashout
    ‘BoostItOn’ Accumulator Boosts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    12
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    BetItOn have ex-Liverpool striker and Champions League winner Djibril Cissé as their brand ambassador and resident football expert
  34. Mega Win When Bettors Combine Selections
    Comprehensive Collection of Sports, Including Esports
    Esports Video Streams
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    18
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Neo.Bet is a sportsbook that attracts users with its competitive odds and unique features. Personal bet configurator is one of them. The platform runs smoothly on devices with screens of all sizes.
  35. 44
    Parimatch Sports
    Established 1994
    More Details
    Big Selection of Live Betting Markets
    Clean Interface
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    23
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Casino players are not the only ones spoilt for choice with Parimatch, sports lovers are too. The betting platform features competitive odds on a big selection of sports.
  36. 45
    mr.play Sports
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Distinctive ‘Moustache’ Branding
    ‘PlayBoost’ Accumulator Boosts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    32
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Mr.Play Sports has a fun style of its very own, with a memorable handlebar 'tache wherever you look, but it boasts a serious amount of betting markets, plus Premier League & 'Euro Elite' betting battle tournaments.
  37. 46
    Sportaza Sports
    Established 2021
    More Details
    96% Payout Rate On Top Leagues
    Bitcoin And Other Crypto Payments Available
    Higher Odds Than Other Betting Site Options
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    30
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    -
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Unlike other betting companies, Sportaza appeals to a new generation of customer by gamifying its offering. This means every week, the online bookmaker will host challenges and tournaments where bettors earn points to improve their VIP rank.
  38. 47
    Spinzwin Sport
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Abundance of sports betting markets
    Licensed by UKGC and MGA
    Availability of partial cashouts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    21
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    SpinzWin definitely knows how to cut through the noise. The site’s operator has been in business for over a decade, which says a lot.
  39. 48
    Palm Slots Sports
    Established 2022
    More Details
    Crypto-Friendly - Including Bitcoin
    Integrated Casino Wallet
    Leading Esports Betting Provider
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    PALMBET100
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    21
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    A new sportsbook to Canada, PalmSlots is operated by NewEra B.V, a trusted brand responsible for Pribet, Cashalot, and FaroUK.
  40. 49
    Mr Mega Sports
    Established 2021
    More Details
    Accumulator Boosts of up to 77%
    Extensive Range of Football Markets
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    15
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    8
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Mr Mega Sports boasts an impressive and easy to use online betting interface, with markets on all major sports and events, plus a wide range of Esports betting markets.
  41. 50
    Betway Sports
    Established 2006
    More Details
    Esports Operator of the Year' 2019
    Rewarding Parlay Club
    Exclusive Esports Club
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    28
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Betway was founded back in 2006, making it one of the experienced brands in the market today. Aside from having a massive selection of sports, the brand excels with esports betting odds.