Sports Betting Strategy: Betting On the Underdog

Date IconLast Updated: 2022 Sep 28
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Sports Betting Strategy: Betting On the Underdog

In online sports betting, a considerable amount of punters look to favourites when placing their bets. Betting on underdogs can be considered something only novices indulge in - a short, sharp thrill that rarely yields results, because "underdogs don't win". Or do they?

Here are four reasons why betting on an outsider might not be such a bad punt, if properly thought out of course.

Underdogs Fly Below the Radar

Sports betting is often just one big popularity contest. A named favourite, whether it's in boxing, football or horse racing, will always get more publicity and hype than their competitor.

For this reason, it's easy for bookmakers – and the betting public – to ignore the underdog. If a well respected pundit tells the public that a certain team or horse is going to win, and the public follow this advice - the odds will be quite short, even if their form is comparable to their competitor. Spotting when this happens can help you identify a good underdog bet.

This can be very prevalent in horse racing, especially when a horse hails from a powerful yard such as the all-conquering Willie Mullins stable. Another horse might have very good form to his/her name, but because that individual is trained by a "smaller" stable, the odds can be more generous.

Gavin Cromwell's Espoir D'allen is an example of this - as despite winning nine of his ten races, he went off 16/1 when winning the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle in 2019.

In hindsight he was a crazy price, especially when you consider Laurina, trained by the aforementioned Willie Mullins, was a 5/2 shot, despite this only being her 7th race in the UK or Ireland and her first time taking on male horses.

In this instance, taking on the more known trainer paid dividends. It pays to look a bit deeper sometimes, albeit it's not recommended to take on Willie Mullins too often!


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Arrogance Aids the Underdog

A successful football team, a seeded tennis player, a Formula 1 race driver on a winning streak: they will all often get over-confident, which makes the underdog perfectly placed to deliver an upset. In Football, the FA Cup is famous for this, because the games are (for the most part) one-off fixtures that will never be repeated.

A club from the lower divisions being drawn against Premier League opposition is never expected to win. Because of this, there is no pressure on the underdog, no expectation and therefore they have nothing to lose.

Bookmakers will always decide odds on stats, facts and form. Magic, chance, serendipity and, most importantly, the psychological arrogance of the favourite have nothing to do with deciding odds, but everything to do with a result.

In 2013, Manchester City were red hot odds-on favourites to win the FA Cup when they met with Wigan, a team who would be relegated that same season from the Premier League. The Latics pulled off the shock of shocks however, with a 1-0 victory, thanks to a stoppage-time strike from substitute Ben Watson who’d come on in the 81st minute.

The same can of course be said for Leicester City in the 2015/16 Premier League season when they shocked the world to take the league title. Odds of up to 5000/1 were offered on them to do the impossible, and their fearlessness lead to them holding on, as the favourites floundered up the run in.

At times, fortune definitely favours the brave!

Psychology Can Work For You

Researching the psychological, as well as statistical parameters of a sporting event, will help identify a good underdog bet. Knowing the head-to-head history of two competitors can give you an edge in identifying a possible upset scenario.

For instance, in football betting, if Manchester City were travelling to Molineux to take on Wolves in the Premier League, the odds would naturally favour Man City.

However, Wolves in the 2018/19 season won two and drew three of their seven league matches against the top six sides in the league, including a draw against the aforementioned Man City in October. They would naturally be outsiders, but this hasn't held them back psychologically at all, making them an underdog to take note of in these matches.


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In-Play Betting Helps You Hedge

Live in-play betting makes your bet more exciting. It can also help you salvage a bad underdog bet, or exploit a slip-up by a favourite. For example, in tennis betting, Novak Djokovic might start a US Open match with Marin Čilić as 1/2 favourite, with Čilić at 4/1.

The bettor places £10 on a Čilić win, knowing Čilić has beaten Djokovic before. Čilić breaks Djokovic early, and Djokovic's odds go out to 6/4.

The bettor then places a £10 back bet on Djokovic, to back up his initial underdog bet. So, if Čilić goes on to win, the punter's profit is £30, but if Djokovic turns things around and wins, the punter still profits by £5, thus covering both bets.

The key to 'safe' underdog in-play betting is timing, knowing when to back against your original bet to cover your original outlay is vital, especially should your underdog forget to bite.

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    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    32
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Guts is a great platform where sports betting enthusiasts will find everything they need. Plus, they can play casino games and poker if they like to.
  31. Mega Win When Bettors Combine Selections
    Comprehensive Collection of Sports, Including Esports
    Esports Video Streams
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    18
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Neo.Bet is a sportsbook that attracts users with its competitive odds and unique features. Personal bet configurator is one of them. The platform runs smoothly on devices with screens of all sizes.
  32. 39
    Spinzwin Sport
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Abundance of sports betting markets
    Licensed by UKGC and MGA
    Availability of partial cashouts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    21
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    SpinzWin definitely knows how to cut through the noise. The site’s operator has been in business for over a decade, which says a lot.
  33. 40
    Monster Casino Sports
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    10% Cashback on Sports Betting Losses
    'Wager Wars' Leaderboard & Cash Prizes
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    17
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Monster Casino Sportsbook is the new sports betting offering from this long established casino brand, with a small but select selection of sports to bet on.
  34. 41
    Karamba Sports
    Established 2005
    More Details
    Regular Money-Back Special Offers
    Karamba Battle' Betting Tournaments
    ‘Karamboost’ Accumulator Boosts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    29
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Karamba is a dual sportsbook and casino operator who offer a decent range of sports markets, plus live betting and cashout options and a 'Karambot' odds calculator.
  35. 42
    Palm Slots Sports
    Established 2022
    More Details
    Crypto-Friendly - Including Bitcoin
    Integrated Casino Wallet
    Leading Esports Betting Provider
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    PALMBET100
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    21
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    A new sportsbook to Canada, PalmSlots is operated by NewEra B.V, a trusted brand responsible for Pribet, Cashalot, and FaroUK.
  36. 43
    Luckster Sports
    Established 2022
    More Details
    Well Designed & Easy To Use Interface
    ‘Boost Up’ Accumulator Boosts
    Live Betting & Cash-Out Options
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    9
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Luckster is a dual sportsbook and casino platform with a vaguely Irish theme, including the inevitable leprechaun logo and shamrock imagery.
  37. Simple & Easy to Navigate Betting Lobby
    'Wager Wars' Leaderboard & Cash Prizes
    10% Cashback on Sports Betting Losses
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    29
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    The Online Casino, as its name clearly indicates, is a casino first operator with an added sportsbook if you also fancy some sports wagers.
  38. 45
    mr.play Sports
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Distinctive ‘Moustache’ Branding
    ‘PlayBoost’ Accumulator Boosts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    32
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Mr.Play Sports has a fun style of its very own, with a memorable handlebar 'tache wherever you look, but it boasts a serious amount of betting markets, plus Premier League & 'Euro Elite' betting battle tournaments.
  39. 47
    BetItOn Sportsbook
    Established 2020
    More Details
    Rising Star Operator of the Year' 2021
    Single or Acca Bets Cashout
    ‘BoostItOn’ Accumulator Boosts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    12
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    BetItOn have ex-Liverpool striker and Champions League winner Djibril Cissé as their brand ambassador and resident football expert
  40. 48
    Vegasland Sports
    Established 2022
    More Details
    Operated by Marketplay Ltd & Aspire Global Ltd
    Bet Builder available for most popular sports
    Excellent Basketball Odds
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    8
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    VegasLand sports betting has a huge variety of markets with top licensing from Malta. Obscure, hard-to-find leagues are available here. Free bets and excellent odds on your favourite sports can be found.
  41. Official Partner of Reading FC
    Ultra-Fast & Easy To Use Interface
    Daily Odds Boosts & Special Offers
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    20
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    35
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Casumo is one of the most distinctive and innovative online sportsbook (and casino) operators in Europe. They like to keep things as simple as possible, with a savvy sports betting user interface.
  42. 50
    Betway Sports
    Established 2006
    More Details
    Esports Operator of the Year' 2019
    Rewarding Parlay Club
    Exclusive Esports Club
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    28
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Betway was founded back in 2006, making it one of the experienced brands in the market today. Aside from having a massive selection of sports, the brand excels with esports betting odds.