World Series Betting Tips: Avoid Backing the Favourites

Date IconLast Updated: 2022 Dec 14
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World Series Betting Tips: Avoid Backing the Favourites

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Let’s preface this by acknowledging that of course each MLB season is its own entity, that the past does not always portend the future. However, savvy bettors know to look for trends, and here’s one we spotted:

This decade only two teams that were World Series betting favourites in their league on Sept. 1 made it to the Fall Classic, let alone won it (that would be your 2016 Chicago Cubs). The other team was the 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers.

So what does this mean for bettors? There are great opportunities in the baseball markets to wager on potential World Series matchups.

Breaking Down World Series Matchups Since 2010

In the eight World Series so far this decade, 37.5 percent of the participants (6 of 16) were the third choice in their league on Sept. 1 to win the World Series: Cleveland Indians (2016), New York Mets (2015), St. Louis Cardinals (2013), San Francisco Giants (2012), Detroit Tigers (2012) and Texas Rangers (2010).

That’s double the amount of teams that were the second choice to win the World Series in their league (Houston Astros, 2017; Kansas City Royals, 2015; Boston Red Sox, 2013).

Nearly as stunning: 31.3 percent of the teams were the fifth (Giants, 2014; Royals, 2014; Rangers, 2011) or sixth (Cardinals, 2011; Giants, 2010) betting choice in their league on Sept. 1. In 2014, the top 2 choices in each league didn’t even make the League Championship Series.

 

Do Favourites At Playoff Time Prevail?

Come the start of the playoffs, oddsmakers should have a pretty good handle on who is playing the best baseball. However, in a short five-game or seven-game series, funny things can happen.

Once again, looking at the data, the favourite from each league to win the title was not the most likely representative in the World Series. Only three made it to the World Series, with the 2013 Red Sox joining the aforementioned Cubs and Dodgers teams.

Far more common – and nearly 50 percent of the time (7 of 16 teams) were the second choice. Three times the third betting choice emerged and three times the longest shot in the field for each league made it to the World Series – including both 2014 participants.

So what does this mean? Well, if you want to stall and see how the teams look down the stretch, your odds will shrink and you are better off looking at the second choice of each league.

What Does This Mean for 2018 World Series Matchup Odds?

The Red Sox are the slight favourite in the American League at +350 on LINK Karamba, just ahead of the Astros at +400. They have been the best team in baseball and have an absolutely ruthless lineup, thanks to J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts and a cast of many. They can just destroy mediocre pitching, even good pitching.

The problem is, they’ll see some great pitching in the playoffs. And with Chris Sale’s shoulder a concern and David Price – unproven in October as it is – with a bruised hand, there are concerns that stretch beyond a bullpen that has struggled at times this season.

 

We’d look to the second choice Astros and the third-choice Yankees as the teams with the most value. The defending champions have played great baseball of late and are, well, the defending champs. The Bronx Bombers have battled injuries all season, and the bullpen took a hit with closer Aroldis Chapman’s right knee tendinitis.

Still, the Yankees almost made it to the World Series and have added Giancarlo Stanton, Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Andrew McCutchen and Gleyber Torres to that crew.

The NL favourites are the Cubs, who have some proven pitching in Jon Lester and Cole Hamels, plus Kyle Hendricks. They get timely hitting and could emerge with an easier path to the Series.

But if we’re looking for non-favourites, the Dodgers (+800), Diamondbacks (+1200) and Braves (+1400) should draw your attention. As of August 31, sportsbooks aren’t offering an Astros-Braves World Series matchup, and all the pity. We would through a few dollars in that direction. So keep an eye out in the coming days to see if that changes.


For latest sports odds and offers check out: 888 Sportsbook Bonus.


Who's Worth Backing in 2018 Considering These Trends?

Could we see a rematch of last year? The Dodgers relievers struggled with Kelsey Jansen on the DL and he’s struggled since returning. But they are still in the picture and you’d be betting they figure things out and return to form. They have the talent.

Bet on Astros-Dodgers at +1600 or Yankees-Dodgers at +2500 at Karamba.

The Diamondbacks have a nifty 1-2 offensive punch with Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta and have the second-best pitching in the NL behind the Dodgers.

Bet Astros-Diamondbacks at +3300 or Yankees-Diamondbacks at +4000.

If you are looking for a real flier, look at the sizzling St. Louis Cardinals and bet them at +5000 at MansionBet to face the Astros.

If you are sold on a favourite getting through, you could look to bet Red Sox-Dodgers (+1000), Yankees-Cubs (+2200) or Astros-Cubs (+1400) at Karamba. And for those hoping for a Red Sox-Cubs World Series, you can get +900 and bet on this season being different than recent history.

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    'Wager Wars' Leaderboard & Cash Prizes
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    17
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Monster Casino Sportsbook is the new sports betting offering from this long established casino brand, with a small but select selection of sports to bet on.
  31. 40
    Stake.com Betting
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Betting Partner of UFC, Everton, & Watford FC
    Vast range of sports and markets on offer
    UEFA Champions League and More Live Streaming
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    100
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    38
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    The world's leading crypto sports betting site - Buy and bet with 19 different cryptocurrencies.
  32. 41
    Nine Sports
    Established 2021
    More Details
    Licensed Bookie With Top-Tier Security Protocol
    Tournaments for New and Returning Bettors
    Prompt Payouts Across All Payment Methods
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    16
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    NineCasinos Sportsbook is a fairly new bookmaker that covers dozens of betting markets and various sports events. It allows live sports betting, and offers a generous prize for sports tournaments.
  33. 42
    BetItOn Sportsbook
    Established 2020
    More Details
    Rising Star Operator of the Year' 2021
    Single or Acca Bets Cashout
    ‘BoostItOn’ Accumulator Boosts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    12
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    BetItOn have ex-Liverpool striker and Champions League winner Djibril Cissé as their brand ambassador and resident football expert
  34. Mega Win When Bettors Combine Selections
    Comprehensive Collection of Sports, Including Esports
    Esports Video Streams
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    18
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Neo.Bet is a sportsbook that attracts users with its competitive odds and unique features. Personal bet configurator is one of them. The platform runs smoothly on devices with screens of all sizes.
  35. 44
    Parimatch Sports
    Established 1994
    More Details
    Big Selection of Live Betting Markets
    Clean Interface
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    23
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Casino players are not the only ones spoilt for choice with Parimatch, sports lovers are too. The betting platform features competitive odds on a big selection of sports.
  36. 45
    mr.play Sports
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Distinctive ‘Moustache’ Branding
    ‘PlayBoost’ Accumulator Boosts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    32
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Mr.Play Sports has a fun style of its very own, with a memorable handlebar 'tache wherever you look, but it boasts a serious amount of betting markets, plus Premier League & 'Euro Elite' betting battle tournaments.
  37. 46
    Sportaza Sports
    Established 2021
    More Details
    96% Payout Rate On Top Leagues
    Bitcoin And Other Crypto Payments Available
    Higher Odds Than Other Betting Site Options
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    30
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    -
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Unlike other betting companies, Sportaza appeals to a new generation of customer by gamifying its offering. This means every week, the online bookmaker will host challenges and tournaments where bettors earn points to improve their VIP rank.
  38. 47
    Spinzwin Sport
    Established 2017
    More Details
    Abundance of sports betting markets
    Licensed by UKGC and MGA
    Availability of partial cashouts
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    21
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    SpinzWin definitely knows how to cut through the noise. The site’s operator has been in business for over a decade, which says a lot.
  39. 48
    Palm Slots Sports
    Established 2022
    More Details
    Crypto-Friendly - Including Bitcoin
    Integrated Casino Wallet
    Leading Esports Betting Provider
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    PALMBET100
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    21
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    A new sportsbook to Canada, PalmSlots is operated by NewEra B.V, a trusted brand responsible for Pribet, Cashalot, and FaroUK.
  40. 49
    Mr Mega Sports
    Established 2021
    More Details
    Accumulator Boosts of up to 77%
    Extensive Range of Football Markets
    Dual Sportsbook & Casino Platform
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    15
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    No
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    8
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    No
    Mr Mega Sports boasts an impressive and easy to use online betting interface, with markets on all major sports and events, plus a wide range of Esports betting markets.
  41. 50
    Betway Sports
    Established 2006
    More Details
    Esports Operator of the Year' 2019
    Rewarding Parlay Club
    Exclusive Esports Club
    Promo Code
    Tooltip The code required to claim a sign-up bonus (if any)
    not required
    Min Deposit
    10
    Acca Insurance
    Tooltip Refund or free bet when one selection in an accumulator lets the bet down
    No
    Live Streaming
    Tooltip Is there live streaming of sporting events?
    Yes
    In-Play Betting
    Tooltip The number of sports with in-play betting available
    28
    Bet Builder
    Tooltip Can you create your own personalised bets?
    Yes
    Betway was founded back in 2006, making it one of the experienced brands in the market today. Aside from having a massive selection of sports, the brand excels with esports betting odds.