Basketball Betting Strategy: Points Markets
![Basketball Betting Strategy: Points Markets Basketball Betting Strategy: Points Markets](https://gambling.com/cdn-cgi/image/w=1200,h=675,format=auto,fit=cover/https://objects.kaxmedia.com/auto/o/2029/aa86072b3d.jpeg)
Basketball beginners shouldn't let the large-looking scores put them off. There are plenty of trends to be exploited in the points markets, and surprising ways to customise your strategies.
Average Points Betting
To put sceptics' minds at rest, it's worth emphasising immediately how close NBA teams' average points hauls are. During the 2012/13 regular season, the lowest points average was 93.2 (Charlotte). In comparison, but hardly in contrast, top scorers Denver averaged 106.2. That's a range of just 13 points. Not a big gap for teams with respective win percentages of 69.5% and 25.6%.
Points For and Against Betting
Perhaps even more informative is the average difference between points for and against, that is, the winning/losing margin. Top team Oklahoma were at +9.2, while bottom team Charlotte were -9.3. And to show just how even the distribution is, Utah, who placed 15th out of the 30 teams, were at -0.1.
Total Points Betting
But what does this mean for the casual punter? First off it makes the total points market a reliable source of income when you're starting out. Predicting mismatches is the easiest way to get going here. For example, LA at Memphis (21/02/14), where the Grizzlies were favourites, exceeded Bet365 Sports’ over/under market to land at 10/11. Closer games like New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Bobcats (21/02/14) will usually be cagier and land under in the total points markets for the same price.
Betting regular stakes using this kind of approach is a great way to get a feel for the market and monitor the success of your strategy. And, when you feel more confident, it's worth considering whether to hedge your bets, or increase your exposure and potential winnings, by entering the team totals markets.
Understanding Team Tendencies
For those seeking an even more complex strategy, finding teams that perform particularly well either defensively or offensively, or that display particularly high scoring performances at home, for example, can help improve predictions. For example, Miami Heat averaged an impressive 104.4 points in the season to 21st February 2014; but in a four game spell on the road in January, they averaged just 97.8.
Check Out: Legal Alberta Sports Betting sites and major sports to bet on.
Winning Margin Betting
Closer trend analysis also opens up the lucrative winning margin market. Two teams with similar scoring stats make a fertile starting point here, as they reduce the likelihood of big results. Let’s return to the New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Bobcats (21/02/14). During the season so far, their points margins were -1.6 and -1.8 respectively, and points per game (for and against) were 200.6 and 192.4. Factor in a home advantage, and Charlotte looked an interesting prospect in a close game.
Betting on Charlotte to win by 1-2 points at Bet365 Sports offered odds of 9/1, a 3-6 point victory was 9/2 and 7-9 was 15/2. Based on the current averages, betting on a 1-2 point victory was worth a try but, as the result (89-92 to the Bobcats) showed, hedging is an even more important strategy in the winning margin market. The Pelicans/Bobcats game could have been profitably hedged by betting on a Charlotte 3-4 point victory too. And even pricing in the cost of the hedge, the profits would still exceed single bets on the total points market.
There are plenty more points markets over at Bet365 Sports, which can all be used to fine-tune a strategy. Simply observe the trends and apply your system rigorously to work out its effectiveness.
Recommended Betting Sites
- 118+. T&C Apply
- 218+. T&C Apply
- 318+. T&C Apply. Promo code: PRIBET100
- 418+ T&C's Apply
- 18+, New Customers Only, Play Responsibly, T&C Apply.
- 6*New members. Min €10 deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtual), placed & settled within 14 days of sign-up. Min odds EVS; win part e/w bet only. Free Bets: valid 7 days on sportsbook. Stakes not returned. T&Cs apply. Click here for full T&Cs. Bet Responsibly. Gamblingcare.ie. 18+
- 718+. New customers only. Min deposit €10, maximum bonus that can be awarded in this promotion is €100. T&C's apply.
- 818+ | New customers only | No deposit required | Promo code: EUROFREE70 | Max €70 free bet | Valid Until 15.07.24 | No rollover requirements apply to free bet winnings
- New customers online only. Eligibility restrictions apply. Only valid with code B10G30PLUS50FS on registration. £/€10 min qualifying bet at 1/1 (2.0) odds or greater across sports or racing (if EW then min £10 Win + £/€10 Place). Receive £/€10 Tote Credit, £/€20 Free Sports Bet and 50 Free Spins on Big Bass Bonanza within 48 hours of qualifying bet settlement. 7-day expiry on free bets & Tote Credit. Your first bet will be your qualifying bet. One per customer. UK & ROI customers only. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. Dunleway.orgFull T&Cs apply.
- 18+ Play Safe. New customers using Promo code BB40 only. Min €10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 4 x €10, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 7 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. See full terms below. gamblingtherapy.org
- 1118+. T&C Apply
- 1218+, New Customers Only, Play Responsibly, T&C Apply.
- 18+. T&C's apply
- 1418+. T&C Apply
- 1518+. T&C's Apply.
- 1618+. T&C Apply
- 1718+. T&C Apply
- 1818+ T&C's Apply
- 18+ New customers only. Opt in, place your first bet of €10 or more on any sports market. Get up to a €60 match in Free Bets. Offer available until 23:59 IST on 31.12.2024. Free bets expire after 7 days. Debit Card/Apple Pay payments only. T&Cs apply, see below. gamblingcare.ie | Please gamble responsibly
- 2018+. T&C Apply
- 2118+ T&C's Apply
- 2218+. New Depositors Only. Min. Dep: €10. Max Bonus €100 + 10 Spins on Book of Dead. The welcome offer requires 1 deposit. Welcome bonus must be used within 14 days or it expires. spins expire after 24h. Bonus subject to 9x wagering with min. Odds 2.00 per single bet or 1.40 per combo bet selection. Spins subject to 35x wagering
- 18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply
- 2418+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: €10, max €10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply
- 18+. T&C Apply
- 2618+. New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of $/€10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: $/€200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests voids all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill deposits. Full Terms Apply.
- 2718+. T&C Apply
- 28New bettors; Code SPORT; Wager deposit & bonus 8x; Max qualifying bet stake=initial bonus; Valid 60 days; Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply; T&C apply; 18+
- 2918+ New UK+IRE Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first €5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x €5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply.
- IRE/NI new customers only. Min Deposit €/£10. Min stake €/£10. Min odds Evs. Free Bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. Free Bets expire in 7 days. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP address only. Account & Payment method restrictions. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. 30 days to qualify. 18+. T&Cs apply.
- 3118+. T&C Apply
- 18+. T&C Apply
- 3318+. T&C Apply
- 3418+. New Customers only, Min deposit €20. min odds 1.5. T &Cs apply.
- 3518+. Promo Code: ZB100S. T&C's Apply.
- 3618+. T&C Apply
- 37Min. bet €10 to receive €20 Free Bet (placed 10 days from registration). Min. odds of 1.6. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 10 days.
- 3818+ T&C's Apply
- 39Welcome Bonus Bet - Bet €10 Get €15 terms. This offer is for new sports customers only and is available once per household. Max. Bonus Bet amount €15. Minimum wagering on the sport to activate the Bonus Bet is €10 (which can be achieved from a Min deposit of €10). Offer valid only to customers wagering on sport €10 or more and make a qualifying bet in accordance with the Bonus Bet Specific Terms and Conditions below. 1st Place Prize: €1000. Prizes granted up to 48h after the tournament ends. Bonus Bet does not contribute towards the leaderboard. Click to see full T&Cs
- 4018+. T&C Apply
- 4118+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. Full T&Cs Apply.
- 4218+ Ts&Cs Apply
- 4318+. T&C Apply
- 4418+. T&C's apply
- 4518+ New customers only. Opt in & bet up to €50 (min. €20) on any sports at 2.00+ odds within 7 days. No Cash out. Get up to 2x €25 in free bets. Bonuses expire in 7 days. Card payments & Apple Pay only. T&Cs apply. http://gamblingcare.ie | Please gamble responsibly
- 4618+. T&C Apply
- 4718+. T&C Apply
- 4818+, New Customers Only, Play Responsibly, T&C Apply.
- 4918+. T&C Apply
- 18+. New Players Only. Min £10 qualifying bets stake not returned. Free bet - one-time stake of £10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply.
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.