NBA Basketball Over/Under Betting: Key Factors to Consider
Analytics have come roaring into the NBA the last few years especially when it comes to betting on the NBA. Points per game have been replaced by efficiency, net rating, pace and a handful of other non-box score numbers that become much better indicators of a team’s offensive worth.
In this full break down of key factors to consider when Over/Under betting on basketball, and the NBA specifically, we’ll get to explanations on all of that, and why it will help when deciding where to place your money on over-unders.
Pay Attention to Pace of Game
True, every game is 48 minutes (assuming no overtime). But the number of possessions a team has in a given game can change drastically based on opponent. A simple look at points per game, or how many points a team has allowed during a recent stretch, can help. But pace is critical.
During the 2016-17 NBA season, the Brooklyn Nets averaged 103.58 possessions per game. That same year the Utah Jazz averaged 93.62 possessions. Brooklyn played at a pace of nearly 10 possessions faster, the greatest discrepancy between the fastest and slowest teams in a single season since 2010. Pace matters. Every team is playing faster these days – average league paced topped 97.0 in 2018 for the first time since 1991. But, by definition, half the league will play below league average.
It’s important not only to look at points per game and points allowed. Understand the styles of play each team likes to implement. Yes, the top oddsmakers likely have taken that into account when setting the over-under. But it can be even more pronounced than what it looks on the surface, all because of pace. A slower team is more likely to speed up against a fast-paced team than vice versa. Take into account how fast (or slow) a game will be played when considering the point total.
Take Rest Days into Account
NBA players are creature of habit. If the NBA scheduling messes with routine, there are ripple effects. Teams play a majority of their games on one day of rest. In 2018, teams played 1,463 of 2,460 games with one day off in between, or just under 60 percent. So it isn’t surprising that teams on one day of rest averaged more points per game (106.5) than they did on zero days of rest (104.3) or two days rest (106.2).
One key takeaway is that teams struggled to score on zero days of rest. In 2018, half of the teams in the league had their lowest scoring output in games without any rest by more than two points. And if you take out a massive outlier in the 2018 Warriors, who averaged 117.3 points on no days rest, the league average falls to 103.8 points.
The same is true for zero rest days defensively, but it’s not as pronounced. In 2018, teams with zero days rest allowed an average of 106.9 points, compared to 106.0 on one day of rest and 106.2 on two days’ rest. As a whole, teams playing on zero days rest had games that averaged 211.2 total points, lower than one day rest (212.5) and 2 days of rest (212.4). It’s just a single point, but it’s a trend that shows offenses struggle in back-to-back settings. It’s something to consider.
High Scoring Teams Go Over
Let’s not overthink this one. From 2011 to 2018, of the 15 teams each year whose games went over the most (120 total teams), 78 of them finished the year ranked in the top half in the NBA in points per game. That’s 65 percent of the highest “over” totals teams being among the top half of the league’s highest-scoring offenses.
While oddsmakers certainly will take into consideration these high-scoring teams when setting their totals, the best offenses in the league have a tendency to take off and score at will…even higher than where lines are set.
Points per game have gone up in the NBA each of the last seven seasons, and average efficiency has reached 108.6 or better for a second straight year, the first time that’s happened since 1992 and 1993. It’s tough for sportsbooks to keep up with the growing trend of offensive output. So chances are if you’ve got a high scoring team involved in a game, it’s going over.
Check Out: Legal Ontario Sports Betting sites and major sports to bet on.
Referee Statistics are a Thing
There isn’t another sport affected more on a game-by-game basis than basketball. And just as it’s important to take player and team statistics into account when considering an over-under, looking at which referees are officiating the game also matters. In 2017-18, 35 officials refereed 50 or more games.
The amount of personal fouls called by those referees ranged from 37.9 to 42.5. The total points per game in those officials’ games ranged from 206.9 to 222.1.
Oddsmakers will factor this in to their decision-making, but it’s safe for a better to also add (or subtract) a point or two based on which three-man crew is officiating the game. The discrepancies can be significant and, as all gamblers understand, fouls and free throws can and will make or break an over-under bet.
Recommended Betting Sites
- Our Top Pick118+. T&C Apply
- 218+. T&C Apply
- 318+ Play Safe. New customers using Promo code BB40 only. Min €10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 4 x €10, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 7 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. See full terms below. gamblingtherapy.org
- 418+. T&C Apply
- 5New customers online only. Place your first bet on racing pools and if you lose, we’ll match your stake up to €/£10 in Tote Credit + 50 Free Spins on a selected game within 48 hours of qualifying bet settlement. Max Tote Credit is €/£10. Tote Credit cannot be withdrawn, exchanged, or substituted and expires after 7 days. Qualifying bet is the first racing pool bet added to the bet-slip. Totewin will be the qualifying bet when a Totewin and a Toteplace bet are struck at the same time. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware®: Gambling Help & Gambling Addiction .
- 618+. T&C Apply. Promo code: PRIBET100
- 718+. T&C's apply
- 818+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply
- 918+. T&C Apply
- 1018+. Min deposit €10 • A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least €10 • Min odds 1/2 (1.50) • Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days • Free Bet stakes not included in returns • Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days and expires after 14 days • Bonus valid on selected Casino games only • Bonus wins capped at €500, excluding Jackpot wins • You must wager Bonus amount x40 – this requirement varies by game T&Cs apply.
- 1118+. New Depositors Only. Min. Dep: €10. Max Bonus €100 + 10 Spins on Book of Dead. The welcome offer requires 1 deposit. Welcome bonus must be used within 14 days or it expires. spins expire after 24h. Bonus subject to 9x wagering with min. Odds 2.00 per single bet or 1.40 per combo bet selection. Spins subject to 35x wagering
- 1218+ T&C's Apply
- 13IRE/NI new customers only. Min Deposit €/£10. Min stake €/£10. Min odds Evs. Free Bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. Free Bets expire in 7 days. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP address only. Account & Payment method restrictions. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. 30 days to qualify. 18+. T&Cs apply.
- 1418+. T&C Apply
- 1518+ New Customers opt in, deposit and bet up to €100 at odds of 2.00 or greater within 7 days of registration, excludes deposits via PayPal & excludes cashed out bets. Matched bonus paid in free bets; 7 day expiry. Geo Restrictions. T&Cs Apply See Below. Please Gamble Responsibly.
- 1618+. T&C's Apply.
- 1718+. New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of $/€10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: $/€200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests voids all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill deposits. Full Terms Apply.
- 1818+. New customers only. Min deposit €10, maximum bonus that can be awarded in this promotion is €100. T&C's apply.
- 1918+. T&C Apply
- 2018+. New Customers only, Min deposit €20. min odds 1.5. T &Cs apply.
- 2118+. T&C Apply
- 2218+ T&C's Apply
- 2318+ T&C's Apply
- 2418+ New Players only. Bonus Code: PLAY10. Gamble responsibly. www.begambleaware.org
- 2518+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. Full T&Cs Apply.
- 2618+ New UK+IRE Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first €5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x €5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply.
- 2718+. New Players Only. Min £10 qualifying bets stake not returned. Free bet - one-time stake of £10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply.
- 2818+. Promo Code: ZB100S. T&C's Apply.
- 2918+. T&C Apply
- 3018+. T&C Apply
- 3118+. T&C Apply
- 3218+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: €10, max €10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply
- 3318+, New Customers Only, Play Responsibly, T&C Apply.
- 34Welcome Bonus Bet - Bet €10 Get €15 terms. This offer is for new sports customers only and is available once per household. Max. Bonus Bet amount €15. Minimum wagering on the sport to activate the Bonus Bet is €10 (which can be achieved from a Min deposit of €10). Offer valid only to customers wagering on sport €10 or more and make a qualifying bet in accordance with the Bonus Bet Specific Terms and Conditions below. 1st Place Prize: €1000. Prizes granted up to 48h after the tournament ends. Bonus Bet does not contribute towards the leaderboard. Click to see full T&Cs
- 3518+ New customers only. Opt in & bet up to €50 (min. €20) on any sports at 2.00+ odds within 7 days. No Cash out. Get up to 2x €25 in free bets. Bonuses expire in 7 days. Card payments & Apple Pay only. T&Cs apply. BeGambleAware.org | Please gamble responsibly.
- 3618+. T&C Apply
- 37Min. bet €10 to receive €20 Free Bet (placed 10 days from registration). Min. odds of 1.6. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 10 days.
- 3818+. T&C Apply
- 3918+, New Customers Only, Play Responsibly, T&C Apply.
- 4018+. T&C Apply
- 4118+ New players only. Opt-in Required. Min stake £/€/$ 10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wagering the winnings from the free bet. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £/€/$ 200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Excluded Skrill deposits. Withdrawal requests voids all active/pending bonuses. Full Terms Apply.
- 4218+. T&C's apply
- 4318+ Ts&Cs Apply
- 4419+. New Customers only. Minimum deposit €20 & minimum odds 1.50. T&C's apply.
- 4518+ | ΙΕ new customers only | Max €100 free bet | Min bet €30 | Min odds 7/10 (1.70) | Bonus Code: BET30GET100 | Free bet stake is not returned | Offer valid until 31.12.2024 | Free bet valid for 7 days | T&Cs Apply
- 4618+. T&C Apply
- 4718+. T&C Apply
- 48NEW CUSTOMERS ONLY. MAX ONE €10 FREE BETS. QUALIFYING BETS MUST BE PLACED AT ODDS OF 1/1 OR GREATER. PAID AS BONUS TOKEN WITH MIN 4/5 ODDS REQ. SKRILL, NETELLER & PAYPAL NOT ELIGIBLE T&CS APPLY. 18+
- 4918+. T&C's apply.
- 50New ROI customers only. Min Deposit: €5. Maximum Free Bet: €50. Overall odds: 1.50 (1/2) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. 50 Bonus Spins credited on placement of qualifying bet. 50x bonus wagering applies as do weighting requirements. Bonus Spins only available on selected games. Debit card deposits only. Offer is valid for 7 days from your new account being registered. 18+ GamblingCare.ie.
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.