Prediction Market Volume Hits Record In October
Prediction markets had their busiest month yet in October. Average daily volume across the yes-or-no exchanges tracked by Jefferies climbed 55% to a record $4.13 billion, according to Predictable, which reported on analyst Daniel Fannon's note. Open interest rose 45% from September to $3.27 billion, also a record.
Fannon linked part of the jump to the college football and NFL seasons, with the start of the 2026-27 NBA season adding to sports trading.
The figures show how quickly the category is growing at a time when regulators are still debating it, as seen in our report on how prediction markets face a global squeeze.
Sports Still Lead
Sports contracts generated about $2.98 billion of average daily volume, up 55% from September, and made up 78% of the total, unchanged on the previous month. Their share of open interest was even higher, at 83% in October against 73% in September.
Fannon said weekend growth in combination contracts, or parlays, was consistent with their use for NFL and college football activity, and that DraftKings' DKeX benefited from that pattern.
Non-sports contracts grew at the same 55% rate, reaching $843 million of average daily volume.
Platform Breakdown
Polymarket recorded $655 million of average daily volume, up 50% on the month and 395% on a year earlier, holding a 17% share of the platforms Jefferies tracks. Other tracked platforms saw $309 million, up 56% month on month and 710% year on year, with a share of about 7%.
Our coverage of Kalshi and Polymarket gives more context on how the two leaders are expanding into new contract types.
Rothera, the exchange launched in June by Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group, recorded $49 million of average daily volume. That was 55% higher than September, but its share of industry volume slipped to 1.2% from 1.5%.
Reading The Numbers With Care
Independent research points the same way on sports. A Pew Research Center analysis found combined monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from $26 billion in May to $53 billion in July, largely on sports. Pew counts volume as notional taker volume, with each contract valued at its $1 face value rather than the price it traded at, so its figures are not directly comparable with the Jefferies daily averages.
The growth has also raised questions about the quality of some reported activity. CNBC reported in September that outside observers had flagged unusual trading patterns on Kalshi and Polymarket and raised the possibility of wash trading, which both companies denied. A Columbia University study cited by CNBC found its indicators of such activity had fallen to negligible levels by April.
The Jefferies report itself is a client note and is not published, so the numbers here are as relayed by Predictable. With sports taking such a large share, volume is likely to stay tied to the fixture calendar, and the new records reflect a heavy stretch of football and the start of basketball.
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