Oscars Betting 2022: Who's Favourite in the Main Categories?

Oscars Betting 2022: Who's Favourite in the Main Categories?
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Oscars Betting Tip:


The 94th Academy Awards, celebrating the best films released between March 1 and December 31, 2021, are scheduled to take place in Los Angeles on March 27.

Voting nominations for the coveted prizes closed on January 27 and the nominations were confirmed on February 8, though we already had a good idea who would be in contention for the Oscars.

That's because the Golden Globes gave its usual strong form indicator for the destination of the so-called ‘Big Five’ Academy Awards: The Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Screenplay.

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The Globes were awarded on January 9 in a muted ceremony due to criticism and controversy over a lack of diversity among its membership, but despite the bad press it remains the best source of information when it comes to Oscars betting.

Oscars Betting Odds Taking Shape

Betting sites have had their Oscars odds open for months and, such is the faith in the Golden Globe form, winners of the key Globes are favourites in the equivalent Academy Award markets.

One of the shortest-priced of all contenders is Will Smith in the Oscar Best Actor betting with virtually all betting apps going odds-on. It took Smith 19 years and six nominations to win his first Best Actor accolade at the Golden Globes – and that came this year for his role in King Richard.

The original Fresh Prince of Bel-Air has only had two previous nominations for Best Actor at the Academy Awards but in 2022, rated a 4/11 shot with even the most generous betting sites, he should finally get his hands on an overdue Oscar.

His potential Oscar-winning role came in the Reinaldo Marcus Green-directed King Richard, a movie where he plays the lead character – the father of tennis stars Serena and Venus Williams. The critically-acclaimed film has a 98% audience score on renowned entertainment review website Rotten Tomatoes.


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Oscar Betting Predictions: Stats Go Against Belfast

Remarkably, given Smith’s prohibitive short price, King Richard is given little chance in the Best Picture award. It is as long as 28/1 with Bet365 in a field where three movies are in with a realistic chance: The Power of the Dog, Belfast and West Side Story.

The Power of the Dog won the Best Motion Picture Drama film at the 2022 Golden Globes ahead of Belfast. West Side Story, a Steven Spielberg adaptation of the famous 1957 stage musical, landed the Best Motion Picture in the Musical or Comedy section on the same night.

At the Oscars, both winning films will meet head-on in one award. The Power of the Dog, a western-style suspense film shot in New Zealand, is the clear favourite at 1/2 with most NZ betting sites.

Belfast – a Kenneth Branagh directed film depicting his childhood in his troubled hometown during the 1960s – is currently 3/1 second favourite with West Side Story drifting out to 6/1.

Best Picture Oscar Odds

MovieOddsBookmaker
The Power of the Dog1/2Bet365
Belfast3/1Betway
West Side Story6/1BetVictor
Licorice Pizza16/1Betway
King Richard28/1Bet365

Worryingly for Belfast backers, the black and white movie collected just one award at the Golden Globes despite having seven nominations. West Side Story had four Globe nominations and collected three.

Since 2001, A Beautiful Mind (2001), Chicago (2002), The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), The Artist (2011), Argo (2012), 12 Years a Slave (2013), Moonlight (2016), Greenbook (2018) and Nomadland (2020) have all won a Best Picture Globe and then doubled up in the Best Picture category at the Academy Awards.

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Being even more objective, if Belfast was unable to collect a single award from the 11 nominations it received at the British Independent Film Awards, what chance will it have in Hollywood?

Campion Odds-On in Best Director Betting

The shortest ante-post betting favourite of all is Jane Campion in the Best Director category. The New Zealander only used a small cast and limited locations in The Power of the Dog, but critics love her work.

She is as short as 1/7 to collect a second Oscar – to accompany the one she received in 1994 for The Piano in the Best Original Screenplay section.

It’s one of the best Oscars bets if you’re looking for a near-certain winner, but few punters will be excited by the potential return on those odds.

Latest Odds: Academy Award For Best Actress

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Like the Best Actor category, the market principles in the Best Actress Academy Award market do not hail from a film in contention for Best Movie. The destination of this award appears a straightforward match between Nicole Kidman – for her role as Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos – and Kristen Stewart, who depicts Diana, Princess of Wales in Spencer.

Kidman did win the Golden Globe for the Best Performance in a Motion Picture (Drama section). It should make her the clear favourite, but that is the only award she has received for the film to date.

On the other hand, Kristen Stewart has had dozens of nominations for her role in Spencer from various film critic societies and is already in double figures for awards won.

The opinions of the Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association, Chicago Film Critics Association, Southeastern Film Critics Association and many other such organisations should be taken very seriously, and they suggest the 31-year-old is on track to collect her first Oscar.

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How To Bet on The Oscars

Each year, a number of novice punters are left wondering can you bet on the Oscars and the answer is yes. However, it may depend on your location.

If you’re in New Zealand you can simply check out our list of the best specials and entertainment betting sites and select the bookmaker that offers most appeal to you.

In most cases you’ll need to deposit funds to your new account and verify your age, but so long as you don’t leave things to the last minute you should have plenty of time to place a bet on the Oscars, which take place on March 27, 2022.

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