Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2024?
Last Updated: 1 Nov 2023
Betting sites have made Jude Bellingham the firm favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or after Lionel Messi scooped the award this year for what is likely to be the last time.
Real Madrid’s Bellingham was named the world's best young player at the 2023 Ballon d’Or awards and received the Kopa Trophy at the ceremony in Paris.
“To win this trophy means a lot,” said Bellingham. "But for me the important thing is team trophies and the important thing for me is to kick on and help Real Madrid and England win trophies for many years.”
Bookmakers reckon he is in pole position to go one step further next year and win the main gong that Messi claimed for an eighth time in his career in 2023.
But there is fierce competition for the 2024 Ballon d’Or with both Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo now expected to drop out of the top three after a period of dominance that has lasted almost two decades.
Bet365 were first out the blocks to release their 2024 Ballon d’Or betting markets and Bellingham isn’t the only Englishman seemingly in the running.
Jude Bellingham Ballon d’Or Odds
Bellingham came second in the race for the 2021 Kopa Trophy when at Borussia Dortmund and was overlooked for the gong last year.
In 2023, however, Bellingham secured his £88.5m transfer to Real Madrid and the versatile midfielder has not looked back.
At the time the 2024 Ballon d’Or betting market opened, Bellingham already had 14 goals in 16 appearances for club and country this season.
He scored on his Real debut and boasted five goals from four games before the first international break of the campaign.
More goals are to come and he also found the net for the Three Lions in their 3-1 win over Scotland.
Bellingham’s rise has been projected ever since he came through the academy ranks at Birmingham. However, to be favourite for the Ballon d’Or at just 20 years old is remarkable.
His 4.0 odds carry a 25% implied probability that would have put him ahead of everyone bar Messi in last season’s market.
Being at Real certainly helps his chances. Not only is he on course to score 30+ goals this season and challenge for the Champions League and La Liga trophies, he’s also tipped to be the key man for England at Euro 2024 next summer.
To win the Ballon d’Or you need to win trophies. That’s what always set Messi and Ronaldo apart from the rest.
If Bellingham can deliver for Real and potentially steer England to a first men’s trophy since 1966 then this gong is his.
Mbappe Ballon d’Or Odds Hold Firm
Kylian Mbappe is Bellingham’s closest rival for the Ballon d’Or in 2024 and it’s not hard to see why.
There is no Neymar or Messi in the PSG squad now and the Champions League remains the club’s ultimate ambition.
Mbappe has already won the World Cup with France, but that triumph earned him the 2018 Kopa Trophy.
Had France beaten Argentina in the 2022 final last December then he would surely have won the Ballon d’Or ahead of Messi.
At 24 and with the previous generation of big guns now out of the way, the path looked smooth for Mbappe to finally win this gong. But then Bellingham came along.
Mbappe cannot outshine the Englishman for prowess on the domestic front as winning La Liga is considered a bigger achievement than steamrolling Ligue 1 once again.
But football betting sites have Mbappe smartly priced at 5.0 and realistically this is a toss-up between Mbappe’s France and Bellingham’s England, and how their countries fare at Euro 2024.
Haaland Odds Reflect Voting Issues
Erling Haaland is, by most people’s reckoning, the most fearsome footballer on the planet right now. He is a deadly finisher, can lead the line on his own, and is a terror for defenders.
He has never won the Ballon d’Or and hasn’t even come close to winning the Kopa Trophy.
There are a few reasons for this. The first is that he will almost certainly never achieve the international success that Messi, Ronaldo and previous winners like Fabio Cannavaro and Luis Figo enjoyed in their careers.
Haaland isn’t winning a World Cup, European Championship or Nations League with Norway.
The second is he’s at Manchester City. The vote of 170 journalists (now cut to 100) usually focuses more on the continent. City aren’t looked upon favourably elsewhere in Europe purely because of their financial clout.
Haaland won the treble last season and still didn’t pick up the 2023 award because Messi won the World Cup.
Another treble this term - and that’s not out of the question - would surely reduce Haaland’s current odds of 5.5.
However, that might not be enough if a rival wins the European Championships for their country.
Kane Finally Has A Chance At Ballon d’Or
It was commendable that Harry Kane stayed at Tottenham as long as he did but the voting process for the Ballon d’Or used to heavily favour trophies, and still does to a big extent.
Now at Bayern Munich, Kane has the chance to win the Bundesliga title and the Champions League, before captaining England at the Euros.
Should he enjoy a dominant domestic season and deliver for the Three Lions then Kane’s odds of 7.0 with Bet365 will almost certainly drop.
He never once got into the top three of the Ballon d’Or votes while at Spurs but 2024 could be his year.
Best Of The Rest
It would be a big surprise if Messi (8.0) won this trophy once more in his career but there’s a slim chance of that happening in 2024.
After all, Argentina compete in the Copa America in the US next summer, and he shone at Inter Miami in the latter stages of the 2023 MLS season.
Get off to a good start with Miami and win the Copa America, and there will be chatter about a ninth Ballon d’Or.
In reality he might just sneak into the top three, assuming the European Championships don’t go to France or England.
Elsewhere, City’s Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne carry the same weight as Haaland when it comes to convincing journalists they are worthy of votes. De Bruyne was third in 2022 but an impressive Euro 2024 could push him up the odds.
Real Madrid’s Vinicius Jr is a good outside bet at 21.0 with betting apps when you consider he may be the star of the 2024 Copa America.
However, the Brazilian might end up in Bellingham’s shadow should Real storm to Champions League and La Liga success this term.
Mohamed Salah, at 26.0, is a big long-shot when you consider Liverpool are unlikely to beat City - let alone Spurs and Arsenal - to the Premier League title.
Ronaldo, meanwhile, would need a sensational Euro 2024 to even be considered in the top three here following his move to Saudi Arabia.
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