How to Bet on Underdogs: 4 Reasons to Back the Underdog
In sports betting, favorites get all the love. But underdogs? That’s where the real value can live—if you know what to look for.
Here are four reasons why betting on an outsider might not be a bad idea.
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No. 1: Underdogs Fly Under the Radar
Sports betting is often just one big popularity contest. A named favorite, whether in boxing, football, or horse racing, will always get more publicity and hype than their competitor.
For this reason, it's easy for bookmakers—and the betting public—to ignore the underdog.
Suppose a well-respected pundit tells the public that a particular team or horse will win, and the public follows this advice. In that case, the odds will probably be quite short, even if their form is comparable to its competitor's. Spotting when this happens can help you identify a good underdog bet.
No. 2: Overconfidence Benefits the Underdog
A successful football (or soccer) team, a seeded tennis player, and a Formula 1 race driver on a winning streak will often get overconfident, which makes the underdog perfectly placed to deliver an upset.
The FA Cup is famous for this because the games are (for the most part) one-off fixtures that will never be repeated. A club from the lower divisions being drawn against Premier League opposition is never expected to win. Because of this, there is no pressure or expectations on the underdog; therefore, they have nothing to lose.
Betting sites will always decide odds on stats, facts, and form. Magic, chance, serendipity, and, most importantly, the psychological arrogance of the favorite have nothing to do with deciding odds, but sometimes it has much to do with a result.
No. 3: Psychology Can Work in Your Favor
Researching the psychological aspects of a sporting event and its statistical parameters will help identify a good underdog bet. Knowing the head-to-head history of two competitors can give you an edge in identifying a possible upset scenario.
No. 4: In-Play Betting Helps You Hedge Bets
In-play (live) betting makes your bet more exciting. It can also help you salvage a bad underdog bet or exploit a slip-up by a favorite.
The key to “safe” underdog in-play betting is timing. Knowing when to make a second wager against your original bet to cover your original outlay is vital, especially should your underdog forget to bite.
