Are Prediction Markets Legal In The UK?
Prediction markets, where people buy and sell contracts on the outcome of elections, sport and news events, have boomed in the United States, and their arrival has raised a simple question in Britain: are prediction markets legal in the UK?
The short answer from the regulator is that they are treated as gambling, not finance.
The Gambling Commission's Position
In a blog post published on February 4, 2026, the Gambling Commission set out its view that prediction-market products, depending on the business model, would appear to fall within the definition of a "betting intermediary" under the Gambling Act 2005.
In plain terms, an operator taking event-outcome positions from customers in Great Britain would need a Gambling Commission operating licence, and the Commission has warned unlicensed platforms not to target British consumers.
Why Polymarket And Kalshi Are Not Available
The two best-known prediction-market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, do not hold Gambling Commission licences, and both are unavailable to users in Great Britain.
Because their event contracts are treated as bets rather than financial instruments, they cannot rely on financial-services authorisation to operate here; they would need to be licensed as gambling operators instead. That is the core reason a product that trades freely in parts of the United States is off-limits in the UK.
The Difference Between Betting And Finance
The distinction matters because it decides which regulator is in charge. Financial products such as spread bets and contracts for difference are overseen by the Financial Conduct Authority, but the FCA has taken a hard line on speculative retail products of this kind.
It introduced a permanent ban on binary options for retail consumers, effective from April 2, 2019, precisely because they resembled gambling.
Prediction markets fall on the gambling side of that line, which is why the Gambling Commission, not the FCA, claims jurisdiction.
A Route To A Licensed Market
There is a legal path. A prediction-market style product can operate in Britain if it holds the right Gambling Commission licence, and licensed betting exchanges already offer comparable event markets.
Matchbook has been cited as an early mover among UK-licensed operators in this space, showing that the model is not banned outright, only that it must sit inside the gambling framework rather than outside it.
What It Means For UK Users
For UK users, the position is clear: mainstream prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi cannot legally take business from Great Britain, and using them is outside the regulated system.
The likeliest route to a British prediction market is through the existing gambling licence regime, not a financial one.
