BAFTA Film Awards 2025 Odds: The Brutalist And Conclave Go Head-To-Head

The BAFTA Film Awards nominations have been announced ahead of the February ceremony, and there looks set to be a closely-fought battle for the main prize of the night.
Conclave leads the 2025 nominations with 12 nods, but one of the movie's main rivals, The Brutalist, isn't far behind with nine nominations.
The pair will do battle for the Best Film accolade and The Brutalist is the early 11/8 favourite on betting sites to take home the crown just ahead of 6/4 chance Conclave.
BAFTA Film Awards 2025 Odds: Best Movie
Film | Odds | Probability |
The Brutalist | 11/8 | 42.1% |
Conclave | 6/4 | 40% |
Emilia Perez | 3/1 | 25% |
Anora | 6/1 | 14.3% |
A Complete Unknown | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Brody And Brady To Benefit At BAFTAs
If The Brutalist, which tells of a visionary architect witnessing the birth of modern America, triumphs in the biggest category of the night on February 16, then early indications are it won't be the movie's only prize of the evening.
Adrien Brody is the Evens favourite to land the Leading Actor award, but he will face stiff competition from Conclave's Ralph Fiennes.
BAFTA Film Awards 2025 Odds: Leading Actor
Actor (Film) | Odds | Probability |
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) | Evens | 50% |
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) | 6/4 | 40% |
Timothee Chalamat (A Complete Unknown) | 5/2 | 28.6% |
Hugh Grant (Heretic) | 4/1 | 20% |
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) | 12/1 | 7.7% |
In Conclave, Fiennes stars as Catholic clergyman Cardinal Lawrence, who is responsible for selecting the next Pope, but he discovers shocking secrets and scandals about the candidates.
While Fiennes' fine acting ability is no secret, the 6/4 chance may be tipped to the Leading Actor prize by The Brutalist's Brody.
BAFTA Film Awards 2025 Odds: Best Director
Director (Film) | Odds | Probability |
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) | 4/6 | 60% |
Sean Baker (Anora) | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) | 3/1 | 25% |
Edward Berger (Conclave) | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Conclave could see a similar result in the Best Director market, which is headed up by The Brutalist's Brady Corbet at 4/6.
Edward Berger, who directed Fiennes in Conclave, is 5/1 fourth favourite to scoop the gong, below both Emilia Pérez's Jacques Audiard (3/1) and Anora's Sean Baker, who is the 2/1 second favourite.
Moore To Pip Anora Star To BAFTA
Anora could also narrowly miss out in the Leading Actress category, too.
If the market remains the same, the movie's Mikey Madison will head to the BAFTA Film Awards as the 13/8 second favourite to take home the Leading Actress prize, but she might find one too good in experienced star Demi Moore.
Moore is the 10/11 frontrunner thanks to her standout role in body-horror movie The Substance.
In the film, she stars as fading celebrity Elisabeth Sparkle, who uses a black market drug to create a younger version of herself, who portrayed by Margaret Qualley. But there are severe side effects.
BAFTA Film Awards 2025 Odds: Leading Actress
Actress (Film) | Odds | Probability |
Demi Moore (The Substance) | 10/11 | 52.4% |
Mikey Madison (Anora) | 13/8 | 38.1% |
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) | 3/1 | 25% |
Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) | 6/1 | 14.3% |
Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) | 10/1 | 9.1% |
The movie itself only received five nominations, after a shock snub for Qualley in the Supporting Actress category, but Moore's performance may have done enough to secure one of the main BAFTA gongs.
Moore has never won a BAFTA Film Award before, but neither have her fellow nominees.
If Madison doesn't cause an upset, then Hard Truths star Marianne Jean-Baptiste (3/1), Emilia Perez's Karla Sofia Gascon (6/1) or The Outrun actress Saoirse Ronan (8/1) could.
Wicked's Cynthia Erivo was also recognised with a Leading Actress nomination, but she is propping up the market at 10/1.
Saldana's Wicked Competition
But Erivo's Wicked co-star Ariana Grande may get some joy for the motion picture in the Supporting Actress category.
The singer and actress is 5/2 second favourite on betting apps to win the prize for her role as Glinda the Good in one of 2024's most talked-about movies.
However, it will be a tough task to overcome favourite Zoe Saldana.
She is just 1/3 to win the Supporting Actress accolade for her role as lawyer Rita Mora Castro in French Spanish-language musical crime comedy film Emilia Pérez, and there is plenty of buzz about the movie.
Emilia Pérez, which is 3/1 to win Best Film, has received 11 BAFTA nods in total, including a second nomination in the Best Supporting Actress category.
BAFTA Film Awards 2025 Odds: Supporting Actress
Actress (Film) | Odds | Probability |
Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) | 1/3 | 75% |
Ariana Grande (Wicked) | 5/2 | 28.6% |
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl) | 4/1 | 20% |
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez) | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Selena Gomez has also been recognised and is a 12/1 outsider for glory, meaning Saldana is the film's main hope in the category.
And with two chances of victory, this could be the movie's best hope of taking home one of the big prizes on the night.
The Brutalist's Felicity Jones is a 10/1 outsider, and the motion picture could also miss out on a Supporting Actor award.
BAFTA Film Awards 2025 Odds: Supporting Actor
Actor (Film) | Odds | Probability |
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) | 1/2 | 66.7% |
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) | 3/1 | 20% |
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Yura Borisov (Anora) | 7/1 | 12.5% |
Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Guy Pearce has a nod, but he is 3/1 second favourite behind odds-on A Real Pain star Kieran Culkin (1/2).
He plays Benji Kaplan, who, along with his cousin David Kaplan (Jesse Eisenberg), travels to Poland to honour their late grandmother.
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