Underdog Adds Live NFL Drive Prediction Markets
Underdog is offering live, drive-by-drive NFL prediction markets covering the outcome of an offensive possession and whether a listed player catches a pass.
Director of product Harry Raymond demonstrated the product in a post dated November 10, 2026.
The addition brings a shorter-duration format to the company's prediction markets offering. Its Next Drive rules specify singles-only entries, no cash-out option and a trading cut-off at the first offensive play.
In his announcement on X, Raymond described Underdog as the first provider of live drive-by-drive predictions "to my knowledge". That is his qualified claim, rather than an independently established industry first.
What The Contracts Cover
Underdog's Next Drive help page lists four drive-result categories: touchdown, field goal attempt, punt and Turnover + Others. The touchdown outcome requires an offensive touchdown by the selected team.
A field goal attempt counts whether the kick is made, missed or blocked. An executed punt also counts if blocked, while the turnover category includes interceptions, lost fumbles, turnovers on downs and safeties, subject to the listed contract rules.
There is also a To Catch A Pass market for listed players. These are Yes-only selections: the reception must count on that drive, and a selection is incorrect if the player does not record a catch during it.
Markets Close Before The Offensive Play
During live play, the markets are concerned about the offensive drive about to start, not the one already underway.
Underdog says a qualifying drive needs at least one offensive scrimmage snap; kickoffs, returns and extra points do not count as offensive drives.
Markets can remain available during a kick, return or break while a price is offered, but trading closes at the first offensive play.
New drives update automatically, while coverage determines whether markets are available at half-time or in overtime.
The rules also allow for pregame markets on each team's first drive. A paused, unpriced or closed market cannot accept a new entry, so availability is tied to the specific team and drive rather than the game alone.
Settlement Rules And Product Limits
Next Drive and To Catch A Pass contracts cannot be combined with other prediction or fantasy selections.
Underdog also rules out cashing out either type of position, distinguishing these markets from products where an early exit may be available.
Settlement can wait for the designated results source or a play review. Penalties and reviews are applied first, and a same-team fumble recovery or the end of the first or third quarter does not by itself end a drive.
The company also specifies that an executed kick remains the relevant result even if a later recovery or score follows. A fake without a kick is graded on the resulting play.
Those distinctions make the published contract rules, rather than the eventual score alone, central to how the new markets settle.
Refer to Cashback Terms & Conditions for full program terms.
