Great Christmas Bake Off Odds: Who Will Win This Year's Festive Show?
The Great Christmas Bake Off 2025 is a Peep Show special this year, and there's not much between the co-stars at the top of the outright market on betting sites.
Actors David Mitchell, Olivia Colman, Isy Suttie, Matt King and Sophie Winkleman will take part in their first reunion since the iconic comedy show wrapped in 2015, but they will have their work cut out in the famous tent on Christmas Day.
Judges Dame Prue Leith and Paul Hollywood will task the quintet with making Christmas tree decoration biscuits for their Signature, followed by a turkey pie in their Technical task.
For the Showstopper, the stars must recreate their favourite Peep Show moment in cake form.
Hosts Noel Fielding and Alison Hammond will be on hand to inject additional festive laughs to the ones provided by the Peep Show actors, but judge Prue wasn't aware of their former programme.
She said: "I’d never even heard of Peep Show - please don’t tell them. To be honest, I’m normally bluffing my head off with the celebrities because I don’t watch any telly."
Many Bake Off enthusiasts will have at least heard of, if not watched, Peep Show back in the day, and they will be delighted with this reunion.
Judge Paul admitted the five actors were "pretty good" in the tent and got "quite competitive" with one another.
Bake Off King Matt?
Matt King is the 5/4 favourite on betting apps to win this year's Great Christmas Bake Off 2025.
King, who is best known for playing Super Hans in Peep Show, certainly knows his way around a kitchen workstation, having previously worked as a professional chef in Australia before embarking on a comedy career. But can he turn his hands to baking?
All that past cooking experience must count for something, and he's unlikely to be flustered in the Bake Off tent.
If he does make a mistake, Olivia Colman (7/4) could be waiting to pounce on the Star Baker title.
In addition to winning an Oscar for her portrayal of Queen Anne in the 2018 movie The Favourite, the star has also appeared in the American show The Bear, where she played a top chef, and portrayed a restaurateur in the recent movie The Roses.
During the promo for The Roses, Olivia's co-star Benedict Cumberbatch revealed she is a fan of baking.
He told The New York Times newspaper: "We both like baking, I’ve learned. Your tarte Tatin is apparently a winner."
The Great Christmas Bake Off 2025 Winner Odds
Contestant | Odds | Probability |
Matt King | 5/4 | 44.4% |
Olivia Colman | 7/4 | 36.4% |
David Mitchell | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Sophie Winkleman | 5/2 | 28.6% |
Isy Suttie | 3/1 | 25%% |
Olivia also admitted she is able to follow a recipe in real life, and said her favourite dish to cook is a Sunday roast.
She added, "I do like to cook. I can follow a recipe."
Whether she picked up any further baking skills from her portrayals in The Bear and The Roses remains to be seen, but she certainly impressed host Alison, who admitted she was left "starstruck" by Colman.
David's Bake Off Form
One of this year's star-studded field has past experience on the show.
David Mitchell appeared in a 2015 episode of The Great Comic Relief Bake Off, but not everything quite went to plan.
For the Showstopper, the comedian served up a grey, sludge-like pavlova.
While it didn't look appetising, Paul and then-judge Dame Mary Berry largely enjoyed the dish's taste.
However, his sludge-like creation wasn't enough to earn him the Star Baker title, which went to Welsh actor Michael Sheen instead.
While David has past Bake Off experience heading into the tent this year, he clearly doesn't do much baking away from the show.
In the upcoming episode, he says: "I’ve made four cakes in my life, two of which have been televised."
David is 2/1 to bake to victory in this year's Christmas series.
Isy's Bake Off Tips
Isy Suttie is propping up the Star Baker market at 3/1, just behind Sophie Winkleman.
Suttie previously appeared on the Off Menu podcast, during which she admitted to lacking confidence when it came to cooking.
Whether that also applies to baking remains to be seen, but she may have picked up some Bake Off tips in recent years.
In 2023, Isy interviewed former Bake Off winner Nadiya Hussain on The Penguin Podcast, and it wouldn't be a surprise if she had reconnected with her recently for some advice.
While judge Prue is considered Bake Off royalty, Sophie - who is The Traitors host Claudia's half-sister - literally is royalty.
She is known as Lady Frederick Windsor after marrying Prince Michael of Kent's son, Lord Frederick Windsor.
However, that won't help her much in the Bake Off tent.
At one stage during the Christmas Day episode, she describes her pies as "poor things".
Sophie heads into the festive special as a 5/2 chance to be this year's Star Baker.
* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.
Who will win this year's Christmas special? Leave us your thoughts in the comments below!
