UK General Election Odds: Tactical Voting Could Kill Reform's Electoral Dream

Recent by-elections have provided a bonanza for Gambling.com readers. 

Particularly when the 11/1 pick for Labour leader, Andy Burnham, became a certainty on betting sites by winning Makerfield, on the same night as the Conservatives landed an upset victory in Aberdeen South.

The duopoly, which has dominated UK politics for a century, struck back, following reports of its demise.

No doubt, UK party politics has become more fragmented than ever. In almost every national opinion poll, five different UK-wide parties score double figures.

Next UK General Election Odds - Most Seats

Elsewhere in Scotland and Wales, nationalists are dominant.

The five by-elections for Westminster since the last general election were all won by different parties. 

Make that six if counting the Caerphilly by-election for the Welsh Senedd. Four out of six, however, boiled down to a two-horse race.

In Makerfield, Labour and Reform won 89% combined. In Aberdeen South, Conservatives and SNP won 78%. In Caerphilly, Plaid Cymru and Reform won 83%, while in Runcorn and Helsby, Reform and Labour won 77%.

Gorton and Denton, where the Greens won a genuine three-way contest, was exceptional. Arbroath and Broughty Ferry wasn't competitive, with SNP dominating.

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An Anti-Reform Coalition Is Building

Following Caerphilly, we noted on these pages how Plaid Cymru had upset the odds on most betting apps by building a tactical coalition against Reform during the campaign, and that they may have peaked.

Whilst Reform did win the English local elections, that trend persists in higher turnout elections, where it seems possible to marshal a tactical 'Anyone But Reform' (ABR) coalition.

Despite recording some of the worst approval ratings on record, Keir Starmer was clearly preferred to Nigel Farage as prime minister. Burnham fared even better, as confirmed by More in Common.

Beware those projected seat totals, though, because at this stage they are built on fractured vote shares.

ABR coalesces closer to election day, when Reform's closest challenger becomes clear to voters.

At that stage, that party can signal its choice to non-Reform voters. For example, in Makerfield, Labour benefited from supporters of other left or centre parties - Lib Dems, Greens and, to some extent, Conservatives - collapsing in their favour.

Ditto Plaid Cymru in Wales, and, were the circumstances relevant, one would expect the SNP in Scotland.

In the latter case, though, tactics can differ, with support for independence or unionism as the key factor. 

That was likely part of the explanation behind the Tory win in Aberdeen South, along with oil and gas industry issues.

Tactical Voting Has Become The Norm

The last general election saw tactical voting on an unprecedented scale. 

Social media and microtargeting have made it easier for voters to game the first-past-the-post system and choose the best option to block a party, if desired.

In 2024, it was almost exclusively against the Conservatives in England and Wales. It resulted in Labour winning 411 seats with just 34% of the vote. 

By comparison, in 2017 they won 262 seats, representing 39%. Even more telling was the Lib Dem performance - 72 seats from a mere 12%.

Incumbency Is A Critical Factor

Bear in mind, as Burnham demonstrated in Makerfield, incumbency and local name recognition are hugely important. Therefore, most binary match-ups at the next election will involve the incumbent.

In many races, that will benefit the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and SNP, although they don't compete in, or have the resources to target, enough constituencies to win the most seats. 

Likewise, the Greens, whose chances lie almost exclusively in university towns or inner cities.

The target to win the most seats will be around 200. Labour, Reform and the Conservatives are the only parties with a realistic chance.

How The Next Election Could Play Out

As things stand, Labour v Reform will be the battle in the greatest number of constituencies. 

The Conservatives will start in second place to Labour in many, but to compete, they need Reform to fall back. The aforementioned evidence reads well for Labour in these seats.

The 72 Lib Dem defences are almost all against the Tories. To become the largest party, the Tories will need to win a large chunk of these back. 

Not easy, but not impossible. If the median public mood is for a right-wing government, the tactical coalition may unwind from 2024.

The Tories start in clear second place on 121 seats, making 200 a realistic target. In light of Aberdeen South, some recent defences in heartlands and Kemi Badenoch's respectable ratings, they have some cause for optimism.

Farage Looks Weaker By The Day

Another cause for Tory hope is Reform's problems. If they slip back, or even implode, they could well resume their former status as the dominant party on the right.

Could Reform implode? Their earlier momentum has stalled or even reversed. 

Their fortunes are unlikely to improve, and Restore Britain is splitting the far-right vote.

Furthermore, Nigel Farage may be in serious trouble over an undeclared £5million donation. 

There is an ongoing parliamentary standards inquiry, and he's enduring some very uncomfortable interviews on the subject.

Recommended Bets

Next UK General Election - Most Seats

The strong advice is to reinvest some of our recent profits on dutching the two parties which have dominated every UK general election in the modern era. 

Backing Labour at 7/4 and the Conservatives at 9/2 combines to around a 54% chance.

• Back Labour @ 7/4
• Back Conservatives @ 9/2

Who do you think will win the most seats at the next UK general election - and has the tactical voting picture changed your view? 

Let us know your thoughts in the comment box below.