UK General Election Odds: How Far Can The Green Party Go Under Zack Polanski?

A substantial gamble is gathering steam on politics betting sites, across multiple markets, involving the Green Party. 

Since they were recommended on these pages at 6/4 to win the Gorton and Denton by-election, Zack Polanski’s party have been cut to 1/2 generally and look set to go even shorter as the February 26 poll nears.

Furthermore, the best odds on the Greens winning the most seats at the next general election are now just 20/1 with BetMGM, having started out around 200/1 - an extraordinary development for a party with only four MPs, who have never gone close to topping a nationwide opinion poll. 

Are we witnessing the start of a political revolution?

Gorton And Denton By-Election Odds:

The Old Parties Seem In Terminal Decline

Evidently, the old order in UK politics is collapsing. The Conservatives suffered their worst ever result at the last election, and their tally of MPs is dwindling further with defections to Reform.

Labour have never consistently polled worse than in recent months and are lurching from one crisis or scandal to another.

The latter’s demise is particularly relevant. Whereas Reform’s lack of historical baggage and ability to distance themselves from failures in government is helping them usurp the Tories on the right, so Polanski’s untainted, clearer brand is hoovering up disaffected Labour voters.

The polling picture is mixed. FindOutNow and YouGov polls tend to record the Greens higher than the rest, with numbers ranging between 10-19% during 2026. 

It isn’t clear which firms have superior methodology but the difference is likely explained by measuring the youth vote. Legislation is being introduced to give 16 year-olds the vote at the next election and that surely favours the Greens.

Can Polanski Succeed Where Corbyn Failed?

The future certainly looks bright. Green politics has a much stronger appeal among younger voters. 

Combined with Polanski’s unapologetically progressive rhetoric, their offer is unique among the current parties.

It taps into the mindset that temporarily enabled Labour to surge under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, without the historical baggage and leadership shortcomings which ultimately wrecked that agenda. 

Polanski’s comms are outstanding.

With the UK electorate increasingly split between two blocs, the Greens have rapidly improving claims to lead the left bloc and thus become the tactical choice in hundreds of constituencies. 

If the betting signals from Gorton and Denton are correct, that is precisely what is happening.

UK General Election Odds:

(Odds correct at the time of publishing: 3.30pm - 12/02/2026)

The Case Against: Early Hype Will Meet Electoral Reality 

The Corbyn example is instructive. Regardless of his personal qualities or failures, his tenure was marked by voter re-alignment based on demographics. 

By his second general election in 2019, the support base for this form of unapologetically left-wing politics was inefficiently concentrated in particular types of constituency.

Gorton and Denton is precisely such a constituency. Much younger than average, with a large Muslim population and a much higher share of graduates and students than average. 

It is very different from the median British constituency - which is essential to win power. Reform are highly unlikely to win in these places. If the Greens win them, it will almost always be at Labour’s expense.

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Furthermore, if the Greens take centre stage, their position will be exposed to the wider electorate and prompt a backlash. 

Britain’s infamously right-wing press will destroy Polanski. Whilst his agenda will indeed attract left-wing voters, it will alienate plenty of ex-Tory voters who have been partly responsible for their recent improvement.

As Zia Yusuf’s debate challenge to Polanski makes clear, Reform are itching for a fight with the Greens over immigration, defence and drugs policy.

What Happens Next?

If the Greens win the by-election, their publicity is sure to explode. Polanski is also pressing hard for a debate with Reform, but against Nigel Farage rather than Yusuf. It should happen.

With news, politics and information so fragmented nowadays, such publicity surges can be transformational. There are millions of voters who might consider voting Green who just aren’t thinking about it right now. 

Expect a poll surge and further excellent results in May’s elections, particularly in English councils.

That 20/1 on betting apps about them winning most seats at the next election won’t last long. 

Whether or not it is a realistic target over the long-term, they haven’t peaked yet. The dominant narrative moving forward, and for the next general election, may very well be Reform vs Green.

How will the Greens perform in Gorton and Denton, and at the next general election? Let us know your thoughts in the comment box below or vote in our poll above!