UK General Election Odds: Labour’s Re-Election Chances Hugely Underestimated

Earlier this year on these pages, we have assessed that Reform have peaked and were deeply vulnerable to tactical voting. 

A dual bet on betting sites on Labour and the Conservatives to win most seats at the next election was recommended, following Keir Starmer’s replacement by Andy Burnham. 

Reform did perform very well in May's local elections - lower turnout, multi-party affairs where tactical voting is miniscule - but have repeatedly lost bigger elections and constituency races which, more or less, evolve into binary choices.

Burnham’s Bounce Looks Solid For Now 

The news for Burnham heading into the party conference is positive. Under his leadership, Labour have consistently overtaken Reform in the polls. Now, following a quartet of MRP surveys from credible polling firms, our earlier assessment looks vindicated.

All four project Labour to be the largest party, by a margin beyond 100 seats. Two have the Conservatives beating Reform into third place. These models barely, if at all, factor in tactical voting, which will further hurt Reform.

Yet the combined best odds about Labour/Conservative has barely risen. Labour are 7/4 on betting apps and the Tories are 7/2. That equates to around 59% compared to 53% when advised earlier. Should we stick or twist?

As those MRPs imply, Labour look particularly solid value. To understand why, we need to understand how what has become a fragmented, multi-party electoral system can ultimately be broken down into two ‘right’ and ‘left’ blocs. 

Left Bloc Is Well-Placed To Re-Create Their Tactical Coalition

On the left side, Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. Their combined average poll share since September 1st is 47.2%. In Scotland and Wales, SNP and Plaid Cymru can broadly be defined on the left (especially the Welsh nationalists). Add them and the average combined share is 51%.

In the right bloc, Conservatives, Reform and Restore are on 47.4% combined. So the two blocs are virtually tied, but there is a fundamental difference regarding ideological and tactical alignment. The left bloc is experienced in tactical voting. It has been common between these parties since the 2016 Brexit referendum, and they perfected it in 2024. 

Consequently, Labour won 411 seats and the Lib Dems won 72 on 47% combined vote share. In England, almost all the gains came at the expense of the Conservatives. At the next election, the two parties will focus their targeting efforts on the same seats, almost completely avoiding each other.

Likewise, the Green vote has a history of switching tactically to Labour in seats where they are uncompetitive. Moreover, Burnham is already eating into the vote share which peaked earlier this year.

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Brexit Reversal Unites The Left But Divides The Right

All these parties agree on the need for a much closer relationship with the EU, electoral reform and passionate opposition to the far-right. It will not be hard for Burnham to take the steps or send the vibes required to marshall this coalition.

Consequently, the Lib Dems will retain strong hopes of holding their seats, and Labour will be the natural choice of this bloc in most of the 411 seats where they are the incumbent. Bar a few inner city or university seats where they will face off against the Greens.

In theory, the right bloc could do the same. In practice, however, it will be devilishly hard in the current climate.

For these three parties are far from ideologically united. Brexit is now deeply unpopular, except among Reform/Restore voters. It seems certain that Burnham will make reversing or undoing it a central part of his pitch.

Divisions Over Race And Identity Plague The Right

Worse are the divisions over race, immigration and identity. An argument is raging on the right over whether a non-white person such as Rishi Sunak, or even a person without full English heritage, such as King Charles can be English.

Ethnonationalism, and remigration, are becoming core parts of the Restore agenda. Such voters are unlikely to support Kemi Badenoch or a Reform including Zia Yusuf, Nadhim Zahawi and Suella Braverman.

Reform understand the threat from their right, and are responding by echoing it. See this from longtime Farage ally Raheem Kassam.

This is going to make it harder, perhaps impossible, for the Tories to do any deals with them. Moreover, it will encourage some Tory voters to side tactically with Labour against Reform or Restore. That once unthinkable tactic has occurred in some by-elections.

Can anything change? Well, were Reform to implode and Farage forced out as leader, the Tories would pick up many of their voters. Enough to compete with Labour, although polls have shown similar numbers of their would-be defectors preferring to switch to Restore. 

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Some commentators, such as Dan Hodges from the Tory-supporting Daily Mail, understand the dynamics and believe Burnham will call an early election to capitalise.

Whenever that election is, and we remain sceptical, the probable effect is that Labour and the Lib Dems will be defending their 483 constituencies against a usually divided right. 

Based on the current numbers, 7/4 about Labour is way too generous and there is little to suggest their opponents are prepared for the battles ahead.

Recommended Bet

Back Labour to win most seats at next UK general election @ 7/4.

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