NFL 2026 Season Week 3: One Bet From Every Game
We're at Week 3 alright and eight teams have a perfect 2-0 record, while eight teams remain winless after their opening two games.
The Colts host the Texans in the only game this week between two 0-2 teams, for whom a loss is not an option. Teams rarely make the play-offs after starting a season with three straight defeats.
Chicago hosts Monday Night Football where the Bears take on the Philadelphia Eagles, who start as favourites on betting apps.
Check out our one bet from each game below.
Thursday Night Football
Falcons (0-2) @ Packers (1-1)
Packers Defense 3+ Sacks
Atlanta's offensive line has given up seven sacks and thrown five interceptions, the worst passing profile in the tracker at 123 yards a game with one touchdown in two outings.
Green Bay's defense have seven sacks and should be playing ahead as six-point favourites.
Two cautions: Green Bay have conceded 28 points a game and 12.5 in fourth quarters, and Atlanta run for 138 a game, so a run-first script would reduce the pass-rush snaps.
Sunday Games
Chargers (0-2) @ Bills (2-0)
Josh Allen (BUF) 1+ Rushing TD
Seven sacks in two games for Buffalo's defense against a Chargers offensive line that has shipped three in each, and Justin Herbert has thrown three interceptions under that pressure.
The trailing script helps too: trailing in both games, the Chargers have had to throw.
Buffalo's defence is otherwise leaky, conceding 273 passing yards and 25 first downs a game, so this is a pass-rush angle rather than a wider read on their back seven. Josh Allen has ran for a pair of touchdowns in both games this season.
Panthers (1-1) @ Browns (1-1)
Panthers To Score 17+ Points
Carolina have scored 37 and 34 with nine touchdowns and average 312 passing yards a game, and Cleveland have conceded 34 and 19 while managing three first-half points across two games.
Cleveland's seven sacks allowed and 10 first-quarter points given up point to early deficits again.
Carolina's defense is the catch - 224 rushing yards conceded a game, the worst in the tracker - but Cleveland only run for 65, so the leak may not matter here.
Jets (1-1) @ Lions (1-1)
Geno Smith (NYJ) 200+ Passing Yards
The Jets have been remarkably consistent through the air - 215 then 218 yards - and Detroit are bleeding 310 passing yards and 31.5 first downs a game.
The Jets are 2-0 against the spread with a defense allowing only 65 rushing and 131 passing yards, so they can stay in this.
Their problem is finishing: four touchdowns in two games and just 20 points scored per game, against a Detroit side that has scored 31 twice.
Texans (0-2) @ Colts (0-2)
CJ Stroud (HOU) 250+ Passing Yards
Indianapolis are giving up 337 passing yards a game, comfortably the worst in the tracker, and Houston have cleared 250 twice while averaging 92 yards on the ground.
The pass-heavy identity is fixed. Houston's issue is that volume has not become points - six last week, 18.5 a game, with seven sacks allowed.
Indianapolis score 26.5 a game and have scored first in both, so Houston, who have conceded first both times, should be throwing from behind again.
Chiefs (2-0) @ Dolphins (0-2)
Chiefs To Score 27+ Points
Kansas City run for 186 yards a game and have scored 31 and 33, while Miami have conceded 27 and 35, taking nine sacks and recording none of their own - the only side in the league without a sack.
Miami's attack cannot lengthen the game either: 13 points and 13 first downs in both outings, two touchdowns scored all season.
Kansas City's own defense gave up 30 points to Indianapolis, so the total is the softer side.
Titans (0-2) @ Giants (1-1)
Titans Defense 2+ Sacks
Jaxson Dart was sacked twice in the Giants' opener before he was knocked out of Monday's loss at the Rams early in the game, and Jameis Winston went down twice more in relief on Monday behind a line that has shipped eight quarterback hits.
Tennessee's own record is the weak half - nothing against the Jets, then three against Philadelphia.
The case is the quarterback change: Winston holds the ball and lacks Dart's escapability, and Tennessee's front found something last week.
Bengals (2-0) @ Steelers (1-1)
Bengals Defense 2+ Sacks
Cincinnati's defense have four sacks in each game, are perfect on six field goals and concede 16.5 points a game, so they can win this ugly.
Pittsburgh's offense have given up six sacks and scored three points against New England, with 3.5 second-half points a game across the season.
Pittsburgh's defensive front has seven sacks and allows 154 passing yards, so this stays low - Cincinnati's soft spot is 253 passing yards conceded a game.
Seahawks (2-0) @ Commanders (0-2)
Seahawks Defense 1+ INTs
Seattle have four interceptions, the most in the league, and have thrown none. Washington's side is where the sheet stops helping: no picks thrown in two games.
However, the angle rests on the quarterback change, with Jayden Daniels out after dislocating his elbow in Dallas and Marcus Mariota - seven interceptions in 11 games last season - is expected to start for Washington.
Seattle concede 8.5 points and 124 passing yards a game, so Washington could be throwing from behind.
Patriots (1-1) @ Jaguars (1-1)
Jaguars Defense 1+ INT
Jacksonville have taken an interception in both games and New England have thrown four, the most in the league.
The Jaguars also score an average 17 first-half points a game, so they should be ahead and forcing throws. Their weakness is glaring - outscored 21-0 in fourth quarters and 6.5 second-half points a game.
New England concede only eight points a game, so the game state could flip before the turnover arrives.
Cardinals (1-1) @ 49ers (2-0)
Cardinals Defense 1+ Sack
Arizona's side holds in terms of getting to the quarterback - three sacks against Justin Herbert, then one against Seattle. San Francisco's does not: they are the only team yet to concede a sack, so this fades the pattern rather than following it.
The case is volume. San Francisco threw for 287 yards last week and lean pass-first as leads build, which is when a clean pocket eventually cracks.
Arizona's risk is the game state after their 81-yard passing collapse last week.
Vikings (2-0) @ Buccaneers (0-2)
Vikings Defense 3+ Sacks
Minnesota have four sacks in each game, eight in total, and concede 12.5 points while not allowing their opponents to score in the fourth quarter.
Tampa Bay have shipped seven sacks and are 0-2 against the spread.
Minnesota's own attack is the reason to be careful: 129 passing yards a game and nine points scored in the Chicago rain last week, so if Tampa Bay lead they can run the clock and the pass-rush opportunities thin out.
Ravens (1-1) @ Cowboys (1-1)
Ravens 100+ Rushing Yards
Thanks to Derrick Henry, Baltimore run for 155 yards a game and score an average 22.5 in the first half, so they tend to build the kind of lead that turns into more carries.
Dallas give up 173 rushing yards and 26.5 first downs a game, the softest combination in this pairing.
Baltimore's weakness is holding on - 6.5 second-half points a game and 11 conceded in fourth quarters - and Dallas have the attack, 37 points scored last week, to make this a shootout.
Raiders (2-0) @ Saints (1-1)
Saints Under 7.5 Q1 Points
All four opening quarters have finished at seven points or fewer.
New Orleans have yet to score one at all in the first 15 minutes, with just three first-half points across two games, and Las Vegas have conceded nothing in the first quarter twice.
The cushion is the catch - three of those four quarters landed exactly on seven, half a point under the line. New Orleans' 42 second-half points show the scoring arrives, just later in games.
Rams (1-1) @ Broncos (1-1)
Both Defenses 1+ INTs
The tidiest symmetry in the tracker: both defences have one pick in each game, and both offences have thrown exactly one interception.
The Rams run for 142 yards a game and have conceded a single sack, so they can dictate; Denver concede 157 on the ground and have scored an average five first-half points a game.
Monday Night Football
Eagles (2-0) @ Bears (1-1)
Bears Over 100+ Rushing Yards
Chicago carry the ball 35 times a game, the heaviest ground volume in the tracker, and Philadelphia have given up 132 and 122 on the floor. Both ends hold especially with the Bears quarterback Caleb Williams sidelined with a hamstring injury.
The worry is Chicago's collapse from 59 points in Week 1 to nine points against Minnesota last week, when six sacks wrecked their down-and-distance and the carries dried up.
Philadelphia's own attack has managed 24 points twice but nothing at all in the first quarter, which should keep Chicago ahead of schedule early.
