Manchester City Odds: Appeal, Sanctions And Relegation Risk

The Manchester City saga continues to rumble on, and the future of the club now rests with two panels rather than on the pitch.

It is hard to escape the furore around one of the biggest stories in football history, and the fallout reaches well beyond the Etihad. 

Title rivals and relegated sides spent the nine seasons in question playing against a club the commission has found was breaking the rules, and every one of them has a stake in how this ends.

Here is a look at what the commission found, when we could get answers and the latest Man City odds on betting sites.

City were found guilty of all the Premier League’s financial charges on September 29, and they lodged their appeal on October 1. 

Now they are waiting to find out what sanction they face, and the betting tells the story. Despite sitting top of the table with a 100% record, City are 8/5 with BetMGM to be relegated, and a points deduction next season is rated at 11/8.

This is a market about the verdict rather than the football.

What Did The Commission Find?

The charges covered nine seasons, from 2009/10 to 2017/18. The independent commission found City guilty of all the financial charges and the majority of the charges for failing to co-operate with the investigation. 

The outcome has been widely reported as 114 of the 115 charges.

It found City arranged "sham" contracts with commercial partners as part of a disguised funding scheme, with the owner, Abu Dhabi United Group, covering part of the sponsorship fees. 

It also found City filed misstated accounts and breached both Premier League and UEFA spending limits.

Chief executive Richard Masters said it showed City "systematically broke Premier League rules for nearly a decade". 

City deny any wrongdoing and say the opinion contains errors of law, principle and fact.

What Could The Sanctions Be?

When it comes to possible sanctions for the club, options such as an unlimited fine, a transfer ban, a points deduction, stripped titles and expulsion have all been touted as possibilities.

Finance expert Kieran Maguire has suggested City could lose between 40 and 60 points. 

For comparison, the Premier League argued for a 10-point deduction for Everton in 2023 over a single breach, but they ended up with six after an appeal.

Everton lost a further two points in April 2024, taking their total to eight, while Nottingham Forest were deducted four points that March.

Outside the top flight, Derby County were docked 21 points in 2021/22, 12 for entering administration and nine for accounting irregularities. 

Luton Town started 2008/09 on minus 30, the biggest deduction in English Football League history, for transfer irregularities and the way they left administration.

In Italy, Juventus were docked 15 points in January 2023 for false accounting over their transfer dealings. The penalty was overturned, then replaced by a 10-point deduction in May. 

The closest precedent for stripping titles came in 2006 when Juventus were relegated to Serie B, and Inter were awarded the title in their place.

When Will We Know?

The appeal must be completed within 12 weeks of being lodged, which is around Christmas, and the panel then has 30 days to deliver its verdict. 

It is generally expected that a decision will be made between January and March of next year.

Sanctions are a separate process with no official timeframe, and they could land before or after the appeal outcome.

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Manchester City Relegation Odds

After the charges were confirmed, the betting markets have moved sharply. BoyleSports had City at 14/1 before the verdict and cut them to 3/1 in the aftermath.

The same bookmaker now has them at a best price of 13/8.

City can only go down if the sanctions are strong enough. It would take a significant points deduction, and with City on 18 points after six games, it would have to be heavy enough to drag them into the bottom three by May.

The club won three Premier League titles during the period covered by the charges (2011/12, 2013/14 and 2017/18), which is why the stripped-titles market exists.

*Odds correct at 10:45 on Wednesday, October 14.

In this season's title race, Arsenal are favourites at 8/15 despite currently sitting three points behind City, who are 4/1 after their perfect start.

Until the panels rule, these prices are less a bet on City’s football than on the outcome of the case. City host Ipswich on Saturday, but the next real catalyst will be a date for the appeal and sanctions hearings.

What punishment do you think Man City should receive? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.