Royal Ascot Tips: Best Racing Tips for Day 4
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Friday's Horse Racing Tips
- 14:30 Ascot – Persian Dreamer – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (4 places) with BetVictor
- 15:05 Ascot – Noble Style – 1pt @ 16/1 with Coral
- 15:40 Ascot – Global Heat – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (5 places) with Ladbrokes
- 17:00 Ascot – Breege – 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (6 places) with bet365
- 18:10 Ascot – Kerdos – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (6 places) with bet365
For Friday's horse racing tips, our analyst James Boyle looks at the flat racing action at Royal Ascot, with five selections now online.
As always, you’ll find the most up-to-date odds at the best horse racing betting sites, but don’t sleep on our tipster’s predictions as those odds could soon be gobbled up by the betting public. Odds stated are correct at the time of publishing.
14:30 Ascot – Persian Dreamer – 1pt e/w @ 25/1
There are a few really interesting fillies in this. Carla’s Way heads the market at the time of writing and was most impressive on her debut despite running her race the wrong way around, pulling fiercely early doors. Once she relaxed into a rhythm, we got to see a potentially high-class performer in action and the visuals were backed up by the clock, so it’s not hard to figure out why she’s so strongly fancied.
On the other hand, she was a breeze-up graduate and major improvement from first run to second is not a certainty. If she pulls for her head like that again, she won’t be getting home against this lot. Navassa Island was another expensive breeze-up purchase and got pitched into a Group 3 for her debut, which she almost won without things going exactly to plan in the middle of the race.
Posting a three-figure performance on debut is no mean feat, one that isn’t achieved very often, and a replication alone – without any step forward – would put her into the first four in any renewal of this race over the last decade. At 5/1, she does look on the underrated side of things and places second on my shortlist at the prices. I just wonder whether she’ll travel well enough to be comfortable.
Persian Dreamer is the most appealing play at 25/1. I was against her at York last time out as I thought she was too short on faster ground at a speed track and so it played out, as she could never make proper inroads into the pace after suffering interference upon leaving the stalls. It wasn’t an awful run by any means but would have been close to a stone regression from what she did at Newmarket.
Most of my betting is framed around forgiving, forgetting and trying to find reasons for better being forthcoming, and the step up to 6f on a stiffer track might put her on the path to glory again. It’s hard to forget the impression she created on debut when routing Dorothy Lawrence (second in the York race) and although it was far from a strong contest, the timefigure was superb for a debutante.
Her cruising speed is clearly top-notch and being out of a Galileo mare, who herself was a sister to a Melbourne Cup runner-up, a more demanding test of stamina should not be a problem whatsoever. The trainer has said she wouldn’t want the ground too fast and that is a worry, but I didn’t think it was solely the underfoot conditions that yielded the York run. Regardless, the price accounts for the risk.
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15:05 Ascot – Noble Style – 1pt @ 16/1
Taking on a supremely talented Aidan O’Brien trained runner is often a waste of your time and it’s possible that Little Big Bear will enhance his sprinting record. He has at least 10lbs in hand on the official ratings and if the handicappers are right, odds-against quotes are generous! It’s rarely that simple, however, and his rating was achieved last August in a five-runner Group 1 in Ireland.
Noble Style could be cooked in terms of reaching Group 1 level if this season’s performances are anything to go by but he did not stay in the Guineas and then last time he returned to a sprinting trip at Newbury. That was a funny race where they didn’t go that hard up front and the reopposing Shaquille made the running at a very comfortable pace, ultimately proving impossible to catch.
The runner-up, Desert Cop, was also up there, whereas Noble Style had been anchored at the back. It wasn’t the only reason he was so below his juvenile peak but the speed horses can often be tough to catch on that track and I’m inclined to forgive. It could end up bringing him forward anyway as he had spent time being trained for a mile and the run came just a couple of weeks after his Guineas exertions.
Ascot’s track offers a more favourable test, he has had five weeks off to come to hand at home and cheekpieces are in use for the first time, which may eke out some more. He’ll love the ground and made a super impressive debut at this track last year (over 5f). Expecting him to get up to Little Big Bear’s level could be folly but at 16/1, I’m happy to take a chance as he has got a lot of raw talent.
15:40 Ascot – Global Heat – 1pt e/w @ 20/1
No horse has defied a single-figured draw in this race over the last decade and five of the last eight have won from stall 18 or higher. It’s an odd one considering low numbers are closer to the rail but that clearly isn’t the place to be. All could change in an instant, of course, and you’re either handicapped to win or you’re not, but I don’t want to side with anything that’s positioned down low.
Maksud is interesting for Hughie Morrison, who has a great record in the race, but he has been smashed in the early markets and is generally a 6/1 poke now. He was 25’s not long ago! Al Nafir has to overcome a break since October but could be well-handicapped. He’ll probably drift out a few points (also 6/1 currently) if the exchange is anything to go by and would be more interesting at 10/1+.
Global Heat has been nibbled into 20/1 but I think there’s still some juice in that. He has the dreaded Timeform squiggle and it’s for good reason, as he has a terrible head carriage. Nobody likes to see that and it’ll put off plenty from backing him, but he has more talent than his 3-31 record would suggest and there’s enough in the locker to give him a live chance of troubling all of these from stall 17.
He was beaten less than a few lengths at Haydock a couple of weeks ago and that wasn’t a bad run considering the lack of race-pace on very fast ground. He stays further than a mile-and-a-half so wouldn’t have appreciated how it all panned out and I have little doubt that he’ll face a more suitable test this time. It also rated as a career-high figure (by a solitary pound!) with Timeform as well.
Another angle I like is the change of headgear, a visor replacing cheekpieces. When the visor was in use for the first time in Meydan, he won a steadily run 1m 6f Listed race and wasn’t disgraced on another few occasions. Taking it off to put it back on again for the big day can often have a positive effect and if it elicits a minor improvement, he’s capable of being bang in the mix here.
17:00 Ascot – Breege – 1pt e/w @ 33/1
Breege shouldn’t be able to beat Jackie Oh based on their running in the Irish 1000 Guineas, with the Aidan O’Brien runner finishing around five-lengths ahead on that day. However, there’s a 2lb swing now that they’re dropping back into a handicap and the selection didn’t have the benefit of any racecourse outings this season, so there’s a possibility she’ll be much fitter for that Curragh spin.
She didn’t get the most optimal of runs either, locked in amongst horses whilst Jackie Oh headed for the outside channel for a clear shot at things. This track could be more suitable as well and she has previous here as a juvenile having finished third to Lezoo over 6f in the Princess Margaret, looking every inch a candidate to do better once she stepped up to face a stiffer test of stamina.
John Quinn sent her over 7f next time in another Group 3 at Goodwood and she ran a cracker in second to Fairy Cross, that despite not settling off a sedate gallop. A first tilt at a mile, and a Group 1, followed in the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp and although no match for the easy winner, she was little more than a length behind the second and hit the line well on what was testing ground.
This is such a vicious handicap that even placing from a mark of 100 will be tough, with plenty of others in the field likely to have more hidden away from the handicapper. I just think we haven’t seen her max out over a mile yet and on what she has shown us, 33/1 massively underrates her true chance of getting involved. She’ll enjoy a hard pace and cover, and the straight mile may be perfect.
18:10 Ascot – Kerdos – 1pt e/w @ 20/1
I’m going to keep this short as I’m all typed out. Kerdos is my fancy and although he’s rated 94, he has loads of scope to improve beyond that. The heavy ground he faced at Chester last time would not have been his bag and certainly didn’t look to be at the time, as he was outpaced early from a terrible draw and going nowhere. But they went hard up top and he flew up the home straight for third.
There was an element of picking up cheap lengths after the pacesetters dramatically overdid it, but it was still impressive to see him finish like that on his first start over 5f and he’ll find it a lot easier to get into a proper rhythm on a straight track. Faster ground will help and he’s closely matched with the current favourite for the race from their meeting on the All-Weather at Lingfield in March. 20/1 is big.
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