South Australia Election Odds: Landslide Predicted For Labor's Malinauskas
Betting sites expect Labor to steamroll to victory in the 2026 South Australia election, after polls suggested liberal parties could be effectively wiped from the state.
Premier Peter Malinauskas is seeking to retain power in the 47-seat South Australian House of Assembly and boasts a commanding poll lead over his adversary, Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia.
South Australians have voted Labor into power in all but one election stretching back to 2002.
It appears the 2026 election will be no different, with polls suggesting Labor could deliver the “most decisive electoral victory in the state’s history”.
The collapse in Liberal support means the Greens stand an outside chance of becoming the second biggest party in the state legislature.
This has caused political betting sites to cut their odds, despite months of campaigning still to come.
South Australia Election Odds
It looks as though the South Australia election has a winner as Bet365 recently slashed its odds on a Labor win to 1/16.
To put that into context, that is significantly shorter than any political party competing in a state or federal election in Australia since the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Labor odds suggest a 94.1% probability that Malinauskas’ party wins the most seats in South Australia’s House Assembly.
They appear almost certain to nail the 24 required for a majority.
Meanwhile, Tarzia's Liberals are out at 8/1 - and those odds are creeping up.
Tarzia took over the state’s party in 2024, but has overseen a significant decline in support, especially among young voters.
He commands just 14% of the Preferred Premier poll, with Malinauskas sitting pretty on 72%.
No wonder the odds are only backing one party to secure a majority next year.
Who Will Win The South Australia Election?
One glance at the odds and latest polls reveals Labor should have South Australia in the bag.
The Liberals have lost around one third of their voters in the state since the May 2025 federal election.
Around 20% of Liberal voters now back Labor, with 9% shifting to One Nation.
Amazingly, only 14% of those aged 18-24 in the state back the conservative party.
This data is not unexpected. South Australia set the tone for Labor victories in 2022 when backing Malinauskas into power.
That year, Anthony Albanese became prime minister and Labor also won the Victoria state election.
There was a point in 2023 when all but one state or territory (Tasmania) was Labor.
That has since changed, but South Australia appears ready to back the left-leaning party even more heavily this time around.
Polling suggests 11 of the 13 current Liberal MPs would lose their seat, including Tarzia.
That could open the door for the Greens or One Nation to potentially become the second largest party in the state parliament.
Bookmakers are unlikely to change their odds between now and the day of the election (March 21, 2026) unless something dramatic happens to Labor.
Malinauskas’ star would have to spectacularly fall for that to occur, with polling data revealing a 70% net satisfaction score.
The Liberals really do have no chance in this election.
