The Players Championship Betting Tips: 6 Panel Picks From TPC Sawgrass
The build-up to the start of the majors increases with this week’s trip to the Pete Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship where Rory McIlroy is a doubt to defend his title.
The US Masters champion withdrew before the start of his third round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a lower back problem and he will delay his arrival until Wednesday to undergo treatment, which explains why he is 14/1 on betting sites as the big day approaches.
The iconic Stadium Course is a 7,352-yard par-72 with water hazards on all but one of the holes, one of which is the par 17th Island Green - one of the most famous holes in golf. The beauty of this course is that it suits all types of player - bombers and grinders alike.
Scottie Scheffler won the unofficial major in back-to-back years in 2023 and 2024, but last week he cut a disconsolate figure on what he described as the “dead greens” of Bay Hill where he finished outside the top 20 of a tournament for the first time in 13 months.
Nevertheless, with doubts surrounding McIlroy’s participation, Scheffler is the favourite, although, at 5/1, his price is longer than last week.
That, though, is a reflection of the quality of the field, which is the strongest outside of the majors.
Since The Players Championship in 2019, all six winners were inside the world’s top 10 at the time, so it would appear to make sense to look at the top end of the market.
However, with McIlroy doubtful and Scheffler not quite at his best, The Panel are looking elsewhere for their Players Championship betting tips.
Last week proved to be a profitable one for The Panel once again as Sahith Theegala returned a full each-way place at 80/1, following up last year’s winner Russell Henley (35/1) and Corey Conners (45/1 each-way first-round leader and 2/1 top 20).
Hopefully, the team have similar success with their selections which start with a player who looked on the money at Bay Hill.
The Players Championship Betting Tips: Aberg The Ace In The Pack
Ludvig Aberg had a frustrating start to the season at PGA West, another Dye design, where he was nine under heading into the third round of The American Express only to withdraw before the start of his third round with illness.
Since missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, the Ryder Cup star has gone from strength to strength, finishing T37 at Pebble Beach, T20 at Riviera and he shared third spot at Bay Hill last week.
The Swede was excellent from tee to green, yet, despite shooting a 77 on Saturday when he found water twice on the eighth, he still managed to finish just three shots behind Akshay Bhatia and Daniel Berger, who missed out on a wire-to-wire victory with a play-off defeat.
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After a closing 67, Aberg, a Ponte Vedra Beach resident, revealed how he plays Sawgrass “every now and then. It’s a great golf course tee to green – one of my favourites in the whole world”.
Although he missed the cut last year, Aberg had finished eighth 12 months earlier and on a course he knows inside out, The Panel expect him to go well at 22/1 with a couple of betting apps.
The Players Championship Betting Tips 1: Ludvig Aberg 22/1 (Each-Way) - With Betfred (Five Places)
The Players Championship Betting Tips:
- Ludvig Aberg 22/1 (Each-Way) - With Betfred (Five Places)
- Sepp Straka 45/1 (Each-Way) - With BetMGM (Seven Places)
- Aaron Rai 100/1 (Each-Way) - With BetMGM (Seven Places)
- Ryan Fox 160/1 (Each-Way) - With SpreadEx (Seven Places)
- Lucas Glover 13/2 Top 20 - With Bet365
- Min Woo Lee 50/1 First-Round Leader (Each-Way) - With Coral (Seven Places)
(Odds correct at the time of publishing: 2.30pm - 03/03/2026)
The Players Championship Tips: Back With Straka Again
Last year, The Panel made Sepp Straka their headline selection and he looked well placed in eighth heading into the final round, only to close with a 74.
That was still good enough for a top-15 spot and he will be encouraged by a decent four days at Bay Hill where he finished inside the top 20 for the third time in five outings this season.
A supreme ball-striker, Straka has posted three top 20s in his last four trips to TPC Sawgrass, so there is something about the Stadium Course that suits his game.
The Austrian, a four-time winner on the PGA Tour, was runner-up at Pebble Beach last month, just a shot behind winner Collin Morikawa, having played well at TPC Scottsdale in the previous week.
The signs are looking promising that another title is just around the corner and Straka gets the nod at 45/1 with BetMGM.
The Players Championship Betting Tips 2: Sepp Straka 45/1 (Each-Way) - With BetMGM (Seven Places)
The Players Championship Predictions: Rai Of Light
Aaron Rai is another player The Panel sided with last year and he catches the eye at 100/1 to win The Players Championship on a course where he usually performs well.
The 31-year-old from Wolverhampton has two top 20s from three visits, either side of finishing 35th a couple of years ago.
One of the most accurate players on the PGA Tour, Rai relishes the challenge posed by Sawgrass which is often referred to as a “plotter’s course”.
Rai has hardly been pulling up trees since the start of the year, but he produced back-to-back top 30s at Riviera and PGA National, so he is coming to the boil nicely.
He famously hit a hole-in-one at the notoriously difficult par-three 17th on his tournament debut in 2023.
As a Jacksonville resident, he regularly practises at Sawgrass and plays the Stadium Course on tournament-free weeks, so that kind of familiarity should be a big advantage this week.
The Players Championship Betting Tips 3: Aaron Rai 100/1 (Each-Way) - With BetMGM (Seven Places)
The Players Championship Outrights: Fox Ticks Sawgrass Box
One player who is flying under the radar this week is the long-hitting Ryan Fox, who in 2024 became the first player to hit back-to-back eagles at Sawgrass.
The Kiwi made a three at the par-five 16th and then aced the signature Island Green in his opening round, although he subsequently failed to make the cut.
That said, Fox finished inside the top 30 on his 2023 debut and was 20th last year, so his course form is acceptable.
Fox’s current form is also encouraging, posting four successive top-25s, including seventh at Riviera.
Describing Sawgrass as “one of the best tournament tests there is”, Fox could spring a surprise at 160/1 with SpreadEx which is offering seven places.
The Players Championship Betting Tips 4: Ryan Fox 160/1 (Each-Way) - With SpreadEx (Seven Places)
The Players Championship Top 20 Tips: Hand It To Glover
It was a toss-up between Bud Cauley and Lucas Glover for a top-20 finish, but The Panel eventually settled on the latter at the bigger price of 13/2.
Glover is the second most accurate player on the PGA Tour this season and he played consistently well at Bay Hill where a weekend 70-70 ensured a top-25 finish – his first since The Open.
Last year, Glover shared the first-round lead with an opening 66 and subsequent rounds of 70-71-71 secured third spot - bettering his previous best of sixth spot nine years ago.
A decent ball-striker, Glover should relish the test of the Stadium Course which requires accuracy off the tee and a decent iron game.
Last year, Glover was inside the top 25 for Strokes Gained: Approach and although he has not quite hit the heights this year, a top 20 does not look beyond the American following an excellent display 12 months ago.
The Players Championship Betting Tips 5: Lucas Glover 13/2 Top 20 - With Bet365
The Players Championship First-Round Leader Tips: Love Lee Opportunity
Min Woo Lee wraps up this week’s Players Championship betting tips to be first-round leader at 50/1 with Coral, which is offering seven places.
The long-hitting Aussie was just one shot off the lead after last year’s opening round, having been in a share of fifth two years earlier.
Lee has been bursting out of the blocks lately, shooting an opening 62 for a share of the lead at The American Express and he was ninth after day one at Bay Hill.
Having been inside the top 20 in six of his last seven tournaments at the end of Thursday’s play, Lee gets the nod for another fast start.
The Players Championship Betting Tips 6: Min Woo Lee 50/1 First-Round Leader (Each-Way) - With Coral (Seven Places)
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