US Midterm Election Odds 2026: Could The Democrats Blow A Golden Opportunity?

We are now deep into the closing stretch of the primaries for November's mid-term elections. 

Six states hold primaries this week, whether that be a full slate (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Vermont, Connecticut), run-offs (Alabama) or South Carolina's special Republican primary to replace the late Lindsey Graham as their Senate candidate.

So far, three trends have been particularly noteworthy and have had a significant influence on the latest odds across various betting sites.

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Multiple Signals Of A Blue Wave 

First, that enthusiasm and turnout are much higher on the Democrat side.

This is to be expected given they are in opposition, especially up against a polarising, ever more toxic Trump. 

Coupled with their lead in the generic ballot and their horrific approval ratings, including on key issues such as the economy and the war in Iran, it is no surprise they are 1/5 favourites with William Hill to win the House of Representatives. 

In the 40 closest House races, they start as favourites across the board.

House of Representatives Most Seats Odds:

Trump Endorsements Could Backfire Again

Second, Trump retains a vice-like control over his party, debunking the idea that 'MAGA' is divided or dead. Very few Republicans win primaries without his endorsement. 

That may prove ruinous. At the 2022 midterms, a spate of extreme, Trump-endorsed candidates lost key Senate and Governor races that Republicans were entitled to win, given the national picture at the time.

Set against a much worse backdrop now, the result could be the previously unthinkable loss of usually, reliably red states and districts.

Nowhere more so than Texas. Had incumbent John Cornyn been the Republican candidate, Texas would have been well down the Democrat target list. 

Texas Senate Odds:

They need to gain four seats to control the Senate and deal a mortal blow to Trump's agenda. 

Instead, Trump endorsed the bitterly divisive, largely discredited attorney general Ken Paxton, who is now trailing rising Democrat star James Talarico. 

Based on betting odds, Texas is now their fifth most likely gain and a genuine toss-up.

Senate Control Odds:

So far, so promising for the Democrats. But could the third trend ruin everything?

Israel Divisions Haunt The Democrats

The party is increasingly divided, particularly over Israel, between candidates backed by either the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) or the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

This is a battle for the party's future. In addition to these elections, it is a pointer to the 2028 presidential primaries. 

The leading lights of DSA are Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani. The latter's endorsements were particularly successful in New York.

If DSA are the insurgents, the problem for the 'establishment' is a lack of leadership.

If it's Congressional leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, they seem sure to lose. If it's Kamala Harris, she is already shifting left and building bridges with these candidates. 

In reality, the real party leaders are still the Obamas.

Last week's victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan primary has escalated matters. 

A staunch critic of Israel who has shared platforms with the far-left influencer Hasan Piker, AES is opposed by many prominent Jewish Democrats. 

The Republicans smell blood, have a barrage of negative ads lined up and are closing in on betting apps.

Divisions Could Cost Democrats This Critically Important State

Michigan is currently held by the Democrats, so if El-Sayed loses, they would need to gain five other states.

Even if they hold it, they can hardly afford to alienate the wider pool of Jewish voters, who voted 79-21 in favour of Harris over Trump. 

To be fair to El-Sayed, he constantly says he loves the Jewish faith and people and contrasts that with the Israeli government. 

Nevertheless, such nuanced messaging is a tough sell.

Probable Wisconsin Candidate Is A Gift To Trump

An even more problematic candidate is set to become their candidate for Wisconsin Governor. 

Francesca Hong is rated over 90% to win the Democratic primary. In the past, Hong has suggested cancelling Thanksgiving, calling it a ‘coloniser holiday’, and defunding the police. 

Retiring Democrat Governor Tony Ivers has said he thinks she will lose the general election. 

She hasn’t even secured the endorsements of Sanders and AOC yet, but is sure to be a central focus of Republican attacks between now and November 3.

Such candidates play into Trump's hands. His narrative that the Democrats are far-left extremists and inevitably targeting a Muslim candidate has plenty of mileage in socially conservative states. 

The median voter in Iowa, Ohio or Texas is a world away from New York City, Detroit or Madison.

DSA have already produced one disastrous candidate. We warned about Graham Platner previously on these pages, and he has since been forced to withdraw after another scandal emerged.

Democratic primaries are dominated by highly educated, ultra-engaged types, whose politics are more left-wing than their working-class base.

DSA do not play so well with black voters, who are absolutely fundamental to any Democratic election campaign. 

It is no surprise to learn that Republican donors are helping fund them.

Perhaps anti-Trump sentiment will carry them over the line, but it is hard to recommend backing Democrats for the Senate against this backdrop.

Instead, back a divided Congress (Democrat House, Republican Senate) at 6/4 with Betfred.

Recommended Bets

Democrat House/Republican Senate @ 6/4 in Balance of Power with Betfred

Republicans to win Wisconsin Governor @ 5/6 with Betfred

*Odds correct at time of publication