Wolves Win Buys Ten Hag More Time, But Is It Time To Go?
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A 4-3 win at Wolves has eased the pressure on Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag. But is the victory simply papering over the cracks?
United led 3-1 with five minutes to play, but were pegged back to 3-3 before Kobbie Mainoo calmly slotted home a dramatic 97th winner at Molineux.
On a night when United could have dropped to 10th in the table, they ended it seventh, 16 points behind leaders Liverpool.
The pressure will be back on Ten Hag if his side lose at home to West Ham on Sunday.
It's been a classic case of second season syndrome for Ten Hag this season. Their 14 league and cup defeats by the end of December was the most at that stage of any United season in 92 years.
United were expected to kick on from last season, when they finished third in the Premier League, won the League Cup and reached the FA Cup final. They were among the favourites with the leading football betting sites to finish in the top four this season.
But instead of building on that platform, Ten Hag's side are struggling in the Premier League and they are out of the Champions League and League Cup. The FA Cup remains their only hope of silverware.
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Ten Hag recently held ‘positive’ talks with with Sir Jim Radcliffe, after Radcliffe’s INEOS group bought a 25% stake in United with the intention of running the football side of the club.
But any support the Dutchman has from the new part owner will quickly disappear if United’s form does not improve quickly.
Before United travel to City for the second derby of the season on Saturday, March 2, the Red Devils have four league games they will be confident of winning.
However, they would have been confident of winning at home to Bournemouth and away at Nottingham Forest, but they lost both those league games in December.
At Gambling.com, we’ve crunched the numbers and the data does not paint a promising picture for Ten Hag.
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League Position Is Damning Enough
Ten Hag has taken a team that finished third last season to seventh in the table, 16 points behind leaders Liverpool.
Check out the latest odds on the candidates most likely to replace Ten Hag as United's next permanent manager.
David Moyes and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer were both sacked midway through the season with the Red Devils seventh in the standings.
Moyes' United were 23 points behind the leaders with four games of the 2013/14 remaining, while Solskjaer’s side were 12 points off the leaders when he was sacked in November 2021.
United's goals this season will be to win the FA Cup and to finish in the top four to secure Champions League football next season.
United, who are eight points behind fourth placed Tottenham, can be backed at 13/1 with UK betting sites to qualify for next season's Champions League.
There are still 51 points to play for, enough for a possible new manager to come in and steer the club towards a place in Europe's elite club competition next season.
No Fear Or Flair Anymore
There used to be a time when going to Old Trafford was a daunting prospect for any side. Not just in England, but in Europe too.
But those days are gone. Visiting teams go to the Theatre of Dreams knowing they can add to United’s nightmares if they take the game to United. That’s what Bournemouth did in their 3-0 win last month.
United’s points per game and goals per game are not great, and another reason why Ten Hag is the current favourite to be the next Premier League manager to be sacked.
This season, the Red Devils are averaging 1.59 points per game, which is only slightly better than some of the previous managers in their final season since Sir Alex Ferguson retired at the end of the 2012/13 season.
Defeat at home to West Ham and Ten Hag will slip back to fifth with 1.52 points per game.
United’s projected points total is currently 60. Before winning at Wolves, their projected total was 58, which would be the joint worst since the 1989/90 season when they finished 13th, but won the FA Cup in Ferguson’s third season in charge.
The Scot, who won 13 Premier League titles, was given time to develop the team, a commodity not afforded to managers these days. Ferguson knew how he wanted his side to play.
But there is no identity to United’s play this season. Fans may be prepared to forgive Ten Hag if they were at least giving it a go, but that’s not the case.
Goals are hard to come by this campaign. Marcus Rashford, Rasmus Hojlund and Anthony Martial have combined to score just nine goals in 51 league games between them.
United have averaged just 1.27 goals in 22 league games so far this season, which is the lowest of any manager in their final season since Sir Alex Ferguson.
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Ten Hag’s Predecessors Fared Better
Ten Hag knows he has to do better. He only has to look at how his predecessors were treated before him.
Some were sacked and others didn’t have their contracts renewed, but those decisions were made based on form.
Louis van Gaal won seven of his last 10 games in all competitions, including the FA Cup final in his final game, but that didn’t keep him in a job at Old Trafford.
In their last 10 games in charge, the five permanent managers had a combined winning percentage of 42%. Ten Hag’s is currently 40%, after Thursday's 4-3 league win at Wolves.
The next month will make or break Ten Hag’s time at Old Trafford.
Methodology
To put together this article, we gathered data in four categories. The first was the league position of the five permanent Manchester United managers between Sir Alex Ferguson and Erik ten Hag, when they were sacked or were not kept on.
We also calculated the points and goals per game average of each in these managers in their final season in charge of the Red Devils prior to their departure.
The fourth and final data point, was the winning percentage of the managers in their final 10 league and cup games in charge.
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