Premier League Sack Race: Who Is Under Pressure Before A Ball Is Kicked?
The new Premier League season is fast approaching, and betting sites have already identified the managers who could be feeling the heat.
With the 2025/26 campaign just weeks away, there are still plenty of pre-season fixtures to play, and the transfer window remains in full swing.
Even so, bookmakers have been busy analysing the data ahead of the kick off.
One of the most talked-about markets is predicting which Premier League boss will be the first to lose their job once the action begins.
Newly-promoted clubs often act quickly if they struggle to adapt to life in the top flight, but it’s not unusual for a more established manager to be the first to go after an underwhelming start.
Here’s a look at the current market according to football betting sites.
Premier League Sack Race Odds
Manager | Club | Odds | Probality |
Daniel Farke | Leeds | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Keith Andrews | Brentford | 6/1 | 14.3% |
Regis Le Bris | Sunderland | 6/1 | 14.3% |
Scott Parker | Burnley | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Nuno Espirito Santo | Nottingham Forest | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Ruben Amorim | Manchester United | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Graham Potter | West Ham | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Vitor Pereira | Wolves | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Eddie Howe | Newcastle | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Andoni Iraola | Bournemouth | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Fabian Hurzeler | Brighton | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Enzo Maresca | Chesea | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Farke Favourite To Go First
Daniel Farke is the bookmakers’ early favourite to be the first Premier League manager sacked this season, despite leading Leeds back to the top flight from the Championship last season.
His achievement in securing promotion has earned him credit with supporters and backing from the board, but that goodwill may not last long if results don’t follow.
What's more, history isn’t on his side either.
During his previous spell in the Premier League with Norwich City, Farke managed just six wins from 49 matches – a record that still casts a shadow.
The top flight is notoriously ruthless, and Leeds will need to hit the ground running. With expectations high and little margin for error, even a short run of poor form could bring scrutiny.
With Leeds' owners sure to be craving success on their return to the big time, Farke is currently priced at 5/1 to be the first managerial departure of the 2025/26 season.
Heat On Andrews Early
Brentford’s appointment of Keith Andrews - who has jumped from set-piece coach to head coach with no senior managerial experience - represents a bold move.
The departure of key players over the summer has raised questions about squad depth, and the club’s self-sustaining model means results will need to arrive swiftly.
A shaky start in August or September could see the rookie boss under serious scrutiny, and if expectations aren’t met, he may be the first to go.
Andrews is second in the market at 6/1 with betting apps.
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Le Bris Needs A Fast Start
Sunderland boss Regis Le Bris turned heads after guiding the Black Cats from mid-table in the Championship to Premier League promotion.
But with limited financial backing, sustaining top-flight status is a formidable challenge.
Sunderland haven’t graced the Premier League in a long time, and early fixtures will be crucial in setting the tone.
A run of poor results against mid-table rivals could trigger nerves at the Stadium of Light — and place Le Bris firmly in the firing line at 6/1.
Could Parker Pay The Early Price Again?
Scott Parker led Burnley to promotion alongside Leeds with an impressive points tally, but he’s no stranger to top-flight turbulence.
His spells at Bournemouth and Club Brugge both ended abruptly following criticism and inconsistent performances.
Burnley will hope last season’s defensive solidity holds up, but any early injuries or tactical errors could see confidence evaporate.
At 8/1, Parker is considered another strong contender in the sack race.
Nuno Knows The Pressure Is On
Nuno Espirito Santo remains at the helm of Nottingham Forest after securing European qualification with a seventh-place finish last term.
A tactically astute manager, he also has a record of short-lived spells in the Premier League, including a brief tenure at Tottenham.
With Forest now facing a congested schedule across domestic and European fronts, a poor run in either could lead the hierarchy to act.
Nuno is 10/1 to be the first manager shown the door.
Amorim Not Out Of The Woods Yet
Ruben Amorim (12/1) begins the new campaign under intense scrutiny following a poor first season in charge of Manchester United.
This has been his first pre-season with his players, but the pressure is already mounting at Old Trafford, and a tricky run of early fixtures could prove pivotal in determining whether he is given time to turn things around.
Graham Potter (12/1), meanwhile, is preparing for his first full season in charge at West Ham after arriving in January.
While his initial impact was steady, expectations will now be higher, and there’s little room for error as he begins the campaign with a squad shaped in his image.
At Wolves, Vitor Pereira (12/1) faces the difficult task of rebuilding after a number of key departures over the summer.
A slow start could disrupt team cohesion and see questions asked of his suitability to steer the side through another demanding Premier League season.
Further down the market, Eddie Howe (16/1) remains popular among Newcastle fans, but early-season struggles have seen respected managers lose their jobs before.
Andoni Iraola, Fabian Hurzeler and Enzo Maresca are all priced at 20/1, and any hint of a bad start could see them quickly dragged into the sack race.
* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.
