AFL Betting Tips Round 5: Our 4 Best Bets For This Week’s Gather Round
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AFL Round 5 Predictions:
- North Melbourne +28.5 Points - 1.9 With BlueBet
- Melbourne HT/FT Win - 1.52 With Unibet
- Geelong vs West Coast Over 161.5 Total Points - 1.9 With Bet365
- GWS Giants By 1-39 Points - 2.1 With Unibet
Round 5 is already upon us, bringing with it the inaugural instance of what the AFL will be hoping is an annually anticipated and celebrated event.
The entire competition has moved to South Australia (this time not because of a pandemic) for the 2023 “Gather Round”, the AFL’s answer to rugby’s “Magic Round” that will see all nine fixtures played in Adelaide.
With two suburban venues set to make their AFL debuts, betting sites will have had a hard time crunching the numbers and pricing unfamiliar surroundings into some unexpected blockbuster matchups.
‘Gather Round’ as we take a look at this fascinating weekend and identify some key markets to keep an eye on.
Brisbane Lions v North Melbourne Kangaroos, Saturday, 1:10pm (AEST)
Chris Fagan’s Lions were almost back to their best when inflicting Collingwood’s first loss of 2023 upon them with 10 unanswered goals, continuing their strong long-term record at The Gabba that has propelled them into four consecutive finals appearances.
Despite remaining amongst the four most favoured Premiership contenders across most AFL betting sites, there are still questions to be unanswered after two miserable performances outside Queensland that saw them lose as favourites to both Port Adelaide (54 points) and the Western Bulldogs (14 points).
Under Alastair Clarkson, North Melbourne appeared a far more determined and competitive side than the one that lost by 108 points to the Lions in Brisbane in April last year, already securing one upset away to Fremantle despite a late scare.
Those taking Brisbane at the line (-28.5 points with most bookmakers) will be asking them to cover a margin they haven’t managed against North Melbourne away from The Gabba since 2004.
So, the neutral surroundings of the Mount Barker Football Club (who, ironically, use the ‘Roos’ moniker and the blue and white of North Melbourne) could inspire them to go five consecutive games without a 25-plus point loss.
The margin could be heavily influenced by the presence or otherwise of North forward Nick Larkey, who sustained an elbow to the hip last weekend and as of Thursday morning local time was “moving okay” according to Clarkson.
Having been their outright or joint top goalscorer in all four games already, his absence would be enough for us to reconsider this play on gameday.
Tip: North Melbourne +28.5 Points - 1.9 With BlueBet
Essendon Bombers v Melbourne Demons, Saturday, 4:10pm (AEST)
Essendon certainly cannot afford another slow start after back-to-back weeks of trailing at the quarter-time break.
This is due to some woeful profligacy with the ball (2.8 v GWS and 1.1 v St Kilda) forced them to work much harder than they needed to for the four points against the Giants last week, while their only start of the year as underdogs resulted in defeat.
Coming up against 2021 Premiers Melbourne, a repeat of their recent first quarters could see the Demons establish an unassailable position early - particularly as they themselves have been producing some of the best first quarter efforts of the last fortnight (5.1 against West Coast and 6.1 against Sydney) on the way to three booming wins of 40-plus points.
The neutral territory of the Adelaide Oval should further play into the hands of the Dees, who have won all but one of their last 14 games outside of Victoria.
Meanwhile, Essendon lost four of their five interstate trips in 2022 and are yet to leave Melbourne this season.
It could be foolish to condemn the Bombers to a hefty defeat as one of two clubs to cover the line in each of their first four games.
However, given the starts of these two sides in recent months, taking the 1.52 on offer with Unibet for Melbourne to be leading at the end of both halves - as they have done in all three victories this season - should add some extra juice to your collect.
Tip: Melbourne HT/FT Win - 1.52 With Unibet
Geelong Cats v West Coast Eagles, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST)
The first of the two Sunday matches at the Adelaide Oval is expected to be the most lopsided game of the entire round according to Australia betting sites.
Reigning Premiers Geelong may have reversed their 3-1 start to 2022, but the opening three rounds have almost been forgotten after their resounding demolition of fellow strugglers Hawthorn in which they piled on 15 goals to one after half-time.
The ease with which Geelong were able to dominate Hawthorn in the second half and develop some fluency in their ball movement will be particularly concerning for Eagles fans, who witnessed a blowout of their own last week when conceding 11 goals to five after the main break in a 63-point loss at home to Melbourne.
Only a minor morning shower or two has been forecast for Sunday morning, which should not affect the scoring on the world class Adelaide Oval surface.
Perhaps the most ominous sign for a weak West Coast defence is not only that star Cats forward Jeremy Cameron has produced two six-plus goal bags already in 2023, but also has superb kicking accuracy (18.6) early in the year.
Seven of the eight matches involving either team this season have produced 169-plus total points each, with six of those eight clearing the pre-match total points handicap - which is set at 161.5 total points by Bet365* here.
Unless some unexpectedly wild weather hits Adelaide in the afternoon, we expect a repeat here.
Tip: Over 161.5 total points - 1.9 With Bet365
GWS Giants v Hawthorn Hawks, Sunday, 3:20pm (AEST)
While there will be plenty of interest in seeing how both GWS and Hawthorn respond to their poor starts to the 2023 campaign, Ladbrokes have marked the Giants as the ones to beat off the back of Hawthorn’s dismal second half display on Easter Monday.
The Giants have led at the quarter-time break in each of their three consecutive losses, but Adam Kingsley’s side have been unable to string together a four-quarter performance.
There could be plenty of tactical changes made by both coaches here, while the Hawks were sweating ahead of Will Day’s tribunal appearance on Thursday evening local time.
Third in the league for both effective disposals and marks inside 50 after the first four rounds, GWS should have a bit too much efficiency for their opponents at Norwood Oval.
But, as one of just three clubs to have not been involved in a 40-plus margin after four rounds, the 1-39 band seems a safer option.
As an added bonus, we’ve identified some potential value in a goalscorer market for this match, with Hawks forward Luke Breust priced at 2.15 with Bet365 to kick 2+ goals - a price much better than what comparable betting sites are offering.
Breust has grabbed two or more goals 14 times since the start of 2022, finishing as Hawthorn’s outright or joint top goalscorer on three occasions this year.
Tip: GWS Giants by 1-39 points - 2.1 With Ladbrokes
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