Ballon D'Or Odds: Kane Backed To Win Coveted Prize
The race for the 2026 Ballon d'Or has been transformed by a dramatic World Cup in North America, and the odds have been shaken up on betting sites as a result.
Spain lifted the trophy after beating Argentina in the final, having knocked out France at the semi-final stage, while England's own run ended one game earlier at the hands of the eventual runners-up.
That tournament, off the back of a season that produced a Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal double for Bayern Munich, a La Liga title for Barcelona and a Premier League victory for Arsenal, has reshaped the market from top to bottom.
The ceremony itself takes place on October 26 in London, with the award covering performances across the full 2025/26 season right through to the World Cup final.
Here, Gambling.com runs through the latest Ballon d'Or odds.
Kane Chasing A Historic First
Harry Kane is the clear favourite at 10/11 to become the first Englishman to win the Ballon d'Or since Michael Owen in 2001.
The striker fired Bayern Munich to a second successive Bundesliga title and added the DFB-Pokal for good measure, finishing the season with an extraordinary 61 goals in 51 appearances.
His tally was 19 more than any other player across Europe's top five leagues, and he carried that scoring form into the World Cup.
Kane registered six goals as England reached the semi-finals before falling to eventual runners-up Argentina, and with no major individual honour left to win at club level, Kane goes into the autumn vote as the man to beat.
Harry Kane had quite a good season for Bayern Munich, scoring 61 goals in all competitions. That was at least 19 more than any other player from Europe's top five leagues. pic.twitter.com/0EhnWfUuuy
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) June 10, 2026
Youngster Yamal In The Frame
Lamine Yamal is next in the market at 3/1, and it's easy to see why after the summer he's just had.
The Barcelona teenager helped his club to the La Liga title, contributing 42 goal involvements in 45 appearances along the way.
He then inspired Spain to World Cup glory, and while his personal scoring return in the tournament was modest, it was his match-winning contributions, including the penalty he won in the semi-final win over France, that mattered most.
Still only 19, Yamal now has a European Championship and a World Cup winner's medal to his name, and could soon add the most prestigious individual award to his cabinet.
Ballon d'Or Betting Odds
Player | Odds | Betting Sites |
Harry Kane | 10/11 | |
Lamine Yamal | 3/1 | |
Rodri | 5/1 | |
Kylian Mbappe | 7/1 | |
Lionel Messi | 14/1 | |
Fabian Ruiz | 33/1 | |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 33/1 | |
Ousmane Dembele | 50/1 | |
Erling Haaland | 50/1 | |
Jude Bellingham | 66/1 | |
Michael Olise | 100/1 |
*Odds correct at time of publication
Rodri In The Frame After Golden Ball Triumph
Rodri sits at 5/1, having played arguably the most influential role of any midfielder at the World Cup.
The reigning 2024 Ballon d'Or winner anchored Spain's midfield throughout the tournament, starting every game as his side went all the way, and his performances earned him the Golden Ball.
His club season with Manchester City was more low-key by comparison, with City settling for a runners-up finish in the Premier League, and it now looks as if he will be on the move this summer.
A second Ballon d'Or in three years would be a remarkable achievement, and Rodri's case is built on precisely the kind of team-defining influence that has won him the prize before.
Rodri at the 2026 World Cup:
— Squawka (@Squawka) July 20, 2026
◉ Most Touches (910)
◉ Most passes attempted (811)
◉ Most passes completed (756)
◉ Most final 1/3 passes completed (204)
◉ Most tackles (26)
Controller. 🎮 https://t.co/vNFJwAi6ou pic.twitter.com/JuMWUxLm2O
Mbappe's Golden Boot Case
Kylian Mbappe rounds out the top four at 7/1 on the back of another prolific individual campaign.
The Frenchman topped the scoring charts in both the Champions League and La Liga for Real Madrid, even though the club ended the season without a major team trophy to show for it.
He carried that scoring touch into the World Cup and finished the tournament as the top scorer, claiming the Golden Boot, despite France's run ending at the semi-final stage against Spain.
Individual brilliance without silverware has rarely been enough to win the Ballon d'Or outright, but Mbappe's numbers ensure he can't be discounted.
Other Market Movers
Further down the market, Lionel Messi (14/1) and Fabian Ruiz (33/1) are both in contention.
Messi was as big as 50/1 when the World Cup got underway, but eight goals in eight games have dragged him back into contention, while Fabian Ruiz enhanced his reputation as part of Spain's victorious squad.
Ousmane Dembele, last year's winner, is priced at 50/1 as he bids to become the first back-to-back champion since Messi in 2021, and he's joined in the market by Erling Haaland (50/1), who fired Norway to a first World Cup quarter-final in 28 years, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (33/1), who enjoyed another big season for Paris Saint-Germain.
Jude Bellingham is a 66/1 outsider after a trophyless campaign with Real Madrid and a semi-final World Cup exit with England, while Michael Olise, whose odds have drifted out to 100/1, will need a big autumn to force his way back into serious contention.
