Ballon d'Or Odds: Who Will Win The Award In 2024?
This year's Ballon d'Or seems to be a two-horse race with the leading candidates heavily involved in the two major tournaments taking place this summer.
Vinicius Junior leads the way on the best betting sites, but Jude Bellingham is not too far behind on the betting market.
Bellingham is hoping to lead England to their first ever European Championship title, while Vinicius Junior is leading Brazil's attack in the Copa America.
Will either land the prestigious award in October?
UK bookmakers have the Brazil winger as the odds-on favourite to go on and win the main gong that Lionel Messi claimed for an eighth time in his career in 2023.
We take a look at the market that has been dominated by Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, who are set to drop out of the top three after almost two decades of success in the award.
A number of bookmakers have now updated their 2024 Ballon d’Or betting markets with many players still hoping to win the award.
Vinicius Junior Still Leads The Way
Vinicius d'Or was the 11/10 favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or before he was in the right place at the right time to score Real Madrid's second goal to seal a 2-0 win over Dortmund in the Champions League final at Wembley.
Obviously, his odds have been shortened after that vital goal and the 23-year-old is now the 8/15 favourite to land the award in Paris on Monday, October 28.
After helping Real Madrid secure a Liga and Champions League double, Vinicius is pivotal for Brazil as they look to win their 10th Copa America, scoring twice in their 4-1 win over Paraguay.
The winger was very much in Bellingham’s shadow during the domestic season and was a 25/1 shot back in April, but he is now in prime position to land the prestigious accolade.
Bellingham Continues To Write His Own Scripts
Jude Bellingham has scored two of England's three goals at Euro 2024 including a wonderful overhead kick in the dying seconds of their round of 16 tie with Slovakia, which took the game into extra-time.
England went on to win 2-1 and after the game, Bellingham was asked who writes his scripts. He replied: "I do."
There is no doubting his ability and confidence in his own ability and to attempt the audacious overhead kick highlighted that.
If England are to go on and win their first ever European title, then Bellingham will have more scripts to write.
The 21-year-old, who was named Champions League young player of the season, scored 23 goals in 42 appearances for Los Blancos last term as Carlo Ancelotti's side claimed the title.
His 9/4 odds carry a 30.7% implied probability that would have put him ahead of everyone bar Messi in last season’s market.
Kroos Enters The Market
Toni Kroos' club career came to a close at Wembley as he helped Real Madrid beat Dortmund in the final of the Champions League.
It was his sixth winners' medal in that competition and he will retire as one of the most decorated players in European football.
He is the 9/1 third favourite on betting apps behind his two team-mates, but he knows there is very little chance he can move above Vinicius Jr and Bellingham.
However, this summer's European Championship on home soil in Germany is the final opportunity to see him play before the curtain comes down on his brilliant career.
Kroos will have an important role to play for Germany in their quarter-final with Spain, a side that contains many of his Real Madrid team-mates. If Germany go all the way, Kroos' odds will shorten.
Mbappe Ballon d’Or Odds Begin To Drift
Kylian Mbappe is beginning to slide down the ladder in the race for the Ballon d’Or in 2024 and it’s not hard to see why.
The Champions League was the ultimate ambition for PSG, but a 2-0 aggregate defeat to Borussia Dortmund in the semi-finals ended their chances of European glory this year.
Mbappe has already won the World Cup with France, but that triumph earned him the 2018 Kopa Trophy. Had France beaten Argentina in the 2022 final then he would surely have won the Ballon d’Or ahead of Messi.
The French forward has now confirmed his move to Real Madrid, which will significantly improve Mbappe's chances of winning future Ballon d'Or awards.
The 25-year-old suffered a broken nose in France's opening round win over Austria and the injury might have an impact on how Mbappe performs in the remainder of the tournament.
If you think Mbappe can fire France to Euros glory and hit the ground running for Real Madrid next season, then now is the time to back him at 12/1 for this year's Ballon d'Or on football betting sites.
Slovakia Winner Gives Kane Hope
Just when we were beginning to write off Harry Kane's chances of winning the Ballon d'Or, he pops up with the winner for England in their round of 16 tie with Slovakia.
He still has a lot of work to do to close the gap on the market leaders, but success at Euro 2024 as England captain, will certainly boost his chances.
It was commendable that Kane stayed at Tottenham as long as he did but the voting process for the Ballon d’Or used to heavily favour trophies, and still does to a big extent.
Now at Bayern Munich, Kane missed out on a Bundesliga title in his debut season and was minutes away from making a Champions League final. But he was named in the competition's best XI for the season.
Haaland Odds Reflect Voting Issues
Erling Haaland is, by most people’s reckoning, the most fearsome footballer on the planet right now. He is a deadly finisher, can lead the line on his own, and is a terror for defenders.
He has never won the Ballon d’Or and hasn’t even come close to winning the Kopa Trophy.
There are a few reasons for this. The first is that he will almost certainly never achieve the international success that Messi, Ronaldo and previous winners like Fabio Cannavaro and Luis Figo enjoyed in their careers.
Haaland isn’t winning a World Cup, European Championship or Nations League with Norway.
The second is he’s at Manchester City. The vote of 100 journalists (cut from 170) usually focuses more on the continent. City aren’t looked upon favourably elsewhere in Europe purely because of their financial clout.
Haaland won the treble in the 2022/23 season and still didn’t pick up the 2023 award because Messi won the World Cup.
After losing out to Real Madrid in the last eight of the Champions League and Manchester United in the FA Cup final, Haaland’s odds have drifted way out to 40/1.
Best Of The Rest
Don't write off Rodri just yet. Spain's midfielder reminded everyone of his ability to score crucial goals when scoring the equaliser that set his country on their way to a 4-1 win over Georgia.
Standing between Spain and a place in the semi-finals are host nation Germany. Rodri's current odds of 33/1 will be cut if the Spanish go all the way in Germany.
Florian Wirtz has emerged as one of Germany's brightest talents and the 21-year-old scored the first goal of the tournament as Scotland were beaten 5-1. If Wirtz can help Germany win the Euros, his odds of 100/1 will be slashed.
It would be a big surprise if Messi (33/1) won this trophy once more in his career but there’s a slim chance of that happening in 2024.
Argentina are hunting down a 16th Copa America triumph, and if he continues his fantastic start with Inter Miami and wins the title in the US, there will be talk of a ninth Ballon d’Or.
In reality he might just sneak into the top three, assuming the European Championship doesn't go to France or England.
Elsewhere, Phil Foden (28/1), Man City team-mate Kevin de Bruyne (100/1) and Cristiano Ronaldo (100/1) are also on the list of possible candidates to land the prestigious award.
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