Western Australia Election Odds Back ALP Over Coalition

Date IconLast Updated: 30 Jan 2024
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Western Australia Election Odds Back ALP Over Coalition

Betting sites expect Labor to win the 2025 Western Australia state election and continue the surge of support for the ALP heading into the next federal election.

Roger Cook’s party holds a huge majority in the state legislature after a crushing victory in 2021 saw 53 of 59 seats turn red.

Cook only replaced Mark McGowan as state premier last June but the upheaval at the top of the party hasn’t completely damaged its electability. Polls show Labor has a healthy lead over the Liberals, while the Nationals are trending below the Greens.

Western Australia used to be a healthy swing state, with the ALP and the Liberals duking it out every three or four years for the right to govern.

But the 2021 election saw the Liberal vote collapse – so much so that the bookies think they’re the definite underdogs heading into 2025.

However, the odds give the Coalition parties hope of perhaps pipping Labor when voters finally head to the ballot box.

Western Australia Election Odds 2025
Best Odds
% Chance
Labor
62.50%
--
Liberal/National Coalition
43.48%
--
Teams Best Odds
Labor
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1.60Bet365
Liberal/National Coalition
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2.30Bet365
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Political betting sites price Labour at 1.6 to win the next 2025 Western Australia Election. Those odds carry a 62.5% probability, while the Coalition (2.3) have a 43.5% chance.

Those odds don’t quite match the polls. The latest Redbridge data from December has Labor leading 59-41 points in TPP vote. The bookmakers evidently think there’s more to come from the Lib/Nats and have set their price accordingly.

These odds may show that Labor are in command but there’s a long way to go until the next state election.

Bookmakers don’t like risk, which is perhaps why they’re being cautious with the Coalition parties. Shane Love only succeeded National leader Mia Davies a year ago and he’s in a major party rebuilding process. Libby Mettam has an equally difficult road ahead to revitalise the Liberals.

Western Australia Election Issues

The polls and odds suggest Western Australia’s next election will be another big Labour win. 

Yet Cook is not looking at a landslide here. His predecessor McGowan frustrated critics by bringing in electoral reform despite pledging in the 2021 election that he would do no such thing.

He was also exposed by his flip-flopping over the Aboriginal Cultural Heritage laws issue, which came around the same time as the Voice vote.

Perth neighbourhoods and many surrounding areas are also suffering from housing crises that are pushing up prices, with a complete lack of supply to the industry. The ALP promised to figure out a housing strategy but it’s not working to date.

The Liberals, meanwhile, are trying to focus on family issues to kick-start their support before the 2025 vote

Mettam has gone hard on plans for the Fiona Stanley hospital site, but her colleagues are not gaining much traction with the electorate.

Liberal in-fighting at a time where Australians are gravitating towards the ALP is not helping things either.

As for Love, he’s battling to save the assumed Liberal-National alliance following changes to Western Australia’s voting system, which could plunge the Nats into a lonely third place. Love’s loss of MP Merome Beard to the Liberals in October has not been forgotten.

Currently there is no viable unity to the opposition, which means the ALP can govern to their whim. The 53 seats secured in 2021 are likely to be reduced in 2025 purely because they can’t go much higher.

However, the bookies reckon Cook will comfortably steer Labor to a third term in office, perhaps just two months before the country heads back to the voting booths.