How The NHL Odds Have Shifted in the Toronto/Tampa Bay Series and Bets You Should Make Tonight
The NHL blessed us with good old-fashioned chaos on Wednesday night. There was a total blowout in Edmonton, a Minnesota bounce back, Tampa doing Tampa things, and naturally, Carolina continuing what they started in the regular season.
Thursday night again features four teams trying to go up 2-0 in their series with four teams trying to bounce back. For those of you participating in NHL betting, it expects to be another one of those nights.
First Off, Oh Thank You Edmonton!
Something crazy occurred on Wednesday night in Edmonton. Yes, the Oilers won and the moneyline plus puckline for Canadian sports bettors were marvelous. Even the 60-minute win was at more digestible numbers. However, our two and three-legged parlays had the Under at 6.5 goals.
It was an odd game that after 20 minutes, there was no scoring at all. You were asking “where is my Evander Kane anytime goal, etc? Anyone? Anyone?”
Then, the floodgates opened. Over the next 30+ minutes of gameplay, Edmonton scored six times. With eight minutes left, there were six goals on the board.
Thankfully, there is a reason why tossing small amounts of money on props pays off. It did in a big way with the Edmonton game. Think of the things that connected. There was the Kane anytime goal(s), the team Over on Edmonton at 3.5 goals, the 60-minute bet and Kane scoring, etc.
The only mistake was the 60-minute and both teams scoring. Honestly, if the Kings had lit the goal lamp, we and bettors would have lost more money and units. Math is weird.
So, What About Toronto?
So, Tampa Bay taught Toronto a classic lesson on playoff hockey. One knew it was coming but few expected it to be so thorough.
We hedged with Tampa Bay in places because of Andrei Vasilevskiy’s playoff record after a loss. It’s insane at 15-0. Not only that, the Russian goaltender has a goals-against of under 1.5 in that span.
Now, the challenge is that the Over was a given to hit. Though that was a bit of a sweat at first. Both teams did get going and the mission was accomplished.
With the Lightning taking control of the series, the scene shifts to Tampa Bay for Friday night. Toronto woke up a sleeping giant in the Lightning. Now, the Maple Leafs have to up their intensity.
Early numbers have Toronto as a very slight underdog at 1.95 to around 2.00. That is not as much as expected.
The problem for the Maple Leafs is that they have advantages but not the one in goal. Vasilevskiy has to be off or slightly off three more times in this series and that is not the most likely proposition.
If one is looking at some early bets to make at the window on Friday. See where that Over 6.5 goals goes. It’s at 1.95 to 2.00 also right now. By the way, Tampa’s Game 2 win swung the series futures to dead even. Finally, consider even shot props.
Again, taking a few risks never hurts. Speaking of, there is one Canadian team that has a game tonight.
The Calgary Struggle Is Real
Now, what do we do for the Ontario and Canadian sports wagerer for Game 2 when it comes to the Calgary Flames? Game 1 saw just one goal after the first five minutes where it looked like Calgary could blow the doors off that game.
Yes, the Under hit but the point was it did not just connect, it pounced with the ferocity of a thousand lions. The pace of the game was what bothered many more for 35+ minutes on Tuesday night. Expected goals for were less than 1 for both teams (0.87 to 0.77 for Calgary at even strength). Ouch!
Again, the flow was slow. Both teams combined for six high-danger scoring chances in 41:15 of even-strength time. That cannot happen again but might come close. This is the fear heading into Game 2.
Let’s do a quick two-legged parlay at 2.73 for the late game.
- Calgary moneyline (1.43) and Calgary Under 5.5 goals (1.91)
So, the key is not worrying about records as much as units. So far, in the playoffs, we have been over .600 but it is the units that have been rather good.
When one is picking up 2-3 units a night in small bets, that is a solid night. It is about the grind and not some short-term make money quick prayer.
The hope is that something kicks this game into a faster pace at times. If Dallas continues to play the road game it wants, Calgary and Dallas make even shot props difficult to recommend.
More Thursday Night Quick Hitters
This is where it is fun to look at some other NHL action. The nice thing about a four-game schedule is the reader has choices. Here are a few picks and leans.
- New York Rangers in 60 moneyline — 1.88
- Three-legged moneyline parlay: CGY, NYR, COL — 2.91
- Jake Guentzel anytime goal — 2.70
- Mika Zibanejad Over 0.5 assists — 2.10
- Jonathan Huberdeau Over 1.5 points — 2.50
- Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen each score goal — 5.20
- Matt Duchene or Filip Forsberg anytime goal — 2.80
- Nathan MacKinnon Over 0.5 power-play points — 2.20
- Lastly, look at save props in Dallas and Calgary later.
As always, bet with your head. Good luck tonight and let’s have some fun!
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