2025 Canadian Election Odds: Nothing to Separate Liberals & Tories in Election Betting

The Canadian election odds on betting sites have once again shifted in the Liberals favour with some sportsbooks now making them the odds-on favorites.

It's a remarkable turnaround by the Liberals, who were big outsiders to retain control of the House of Commons when Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Prime Minister after nine years in power.

Mark Carney's victory in the Liberal's leadership race, coupled with the unpopular Trudeau bowing out and the Conservative's perceived soft stance on US President Donald Trump and his trade war, has reinvigorated the race to win the next Canadian election, which is due to be held to April 28, according to reports.

When the markets opened on political betting sites, the expectation was the Tories would secure a huge majority.

However, the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals narrowed quickly, and recent polls suggest the Liberals have overtaken the Conservatives, who have blown the 20-point advantage they held in January.

Who Will Win Canada's Next Elections?

Established and new betting sites alike had been forecasting a landslide win for the Conservative Party.

However, ever since Donald Trump took office, opinion polls and, subsequently, the betting markets have been turned on their head due to the Conservative's perceived fondness for Trump, who has sparked a trade war between the neighbours and openly discussed making Canada the USA's 51st state.

Having been -1600 to win the election in January, William Hill now make the Conservatives a +100 shot with leader Pierre Poilievre's numbers having nose-dived.

Poilievre, a populist who has borrowed from the Trump playbook, held a 23-point lead in the polls at the start of the year, having tapped into the resentment among Canadians at the cost of living concerns and environmental taxes.

That lead has long gone and most Canadians would rather see seasoned economist Carney, not Poilievre, negotiate with Trump over the ongoing Canada-US trade wars.

The Liberal Party are seemingly making gains on the Tories all the time and have gone from being a +1600 shot down to win the election to a best price of -125 at bet365.

The Tories' stance on Trump is one reason for the shift, but the other is the departure of Trudeau, who had become deeply unpopular among his own party.

When Trudeau announced he would be resigning, Carney was quickly installed as the favorite to replace him.

Carney, a former Bank of Canada governor, has been serving as a special economic adviser to Trudeau, but has never held a public office.

However, he's done a good job rallying supporters to his cause with his strong reaction to Trump's suggestions that Canada could potentially be annexed and voters appear to have more faith in the experienced Carney negotiating an end to the trade war.

The Liberals are gaining support from some marginal Conservatives and from the New Democratic Party, which has seen a dip in their opinion poll numbers.

Bloc Québécois are being forecast to overtake the New Democratic Party as the third largest political party in Canada.

When Will The Next Canadian Elections Be Held?

Carney hasn't officially announced his plans for an election this year, but the expectation is it will take place on April 28.

The odds on betting apps indicate bookies expect a general election in the first half of the year with an election to take place between March and May priced having gone from -390 to -2100 since Carney won the Liberal leadership race.

Voting to take place between June and August of this year is +700 on FanDuel, while it's +170 for the elections to be held on the current scheduled date of October 20.

All odds and links are from Ontario sportsbooks, where it is legal to bet on the federal election. Rules for gambling on the election may be different in other provinces.