Football Transfer Betting: How to Bet on Transfers

The transfer window has become one of the most exciting periods for football fans as the rumour mill goes into overdrive and players move for eye-watering sums of money. 

The best online bookmakers now have football transfer betting markets available as they look to capitalise on the modern obsession with player movement. In this article, we explain how and where to bet on transfers. We also reveal our top football transfer betting tips to help you beat the bookies.

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Where Can You Bet On Football Transfers?

Top football betting sites have transfer betting markets available all year round, with more markets opening up when the window opens. Some of the sites with the best range of transfer markets are BetVictor and bet365.

How to Place Football Transfer Bets

Football transfer betting can always be found in the football/soccer section of an online bookmaker. Head to the ‘specials’ tab within the football betting section and you'll usually find the latest transfer odds, as well as odds for managerial sackings and appointments.

If you're new to the site, you should qualify for free bets as part of a welcome offer. The main transfer markets you can bet on are covered below.

Football Transfer Betting & Manager Markets

Football transfer bets come in a few different forms. Let’s take a look at some examples:

• Player’s Club at End of Window: Bet on where a player will end up when the transfer window closes. This market usually opens when there is speculation around free agents or players who have been linked with a move away from their current club.
• Player’s Next Permanent Club: With this market, you get paid out as soon as the player seals a deal, if you have predicted the right destination. For your bet to come in, the player must sign a permanent contract and not just a loan deal.
• To Leave or Stay: This one is a simple market where you pick between two options - will the player stay at his current club, or go?
• Next Permanent Manager: Bet on the next manager of a club or country. Commonly available when a post is vacant - but bookies like Ladbrokes have odds for markets like next England manager even when the hot-seat is still occupied.
• Sack Race Betting: You can bet on the next manager to leave their post in the Premier League (whether it be through sacking or resignation) with BetVictor offering this market all season long.

Tips & Strategies for Betting on Football Transfers

Football transfer betting is risky business without a coherent strategy. In this section, we explain some useful pointers that have helped us over the years. Ultimately, you'll find that diligence is key.

Approach The Rumour Mill With Caution

At the height of the transfer window, speculation goes into overdrive. It’s important to ignore gossip from friends or baseless speculation on social media. Barely a day goes by without someone claiming to have seen a player in a town or city that can be linked to a transfer.

Remain sceptical about social media rumours, even if a post gets a lot of traction. When it comes to football transfer betting, you'll find that ignoring idle gossip will save you money.

Look For Patterns in Player Behaviour

Players often give subtle hints about their futures in interviews or on social media. While these shouldn't be taken as certainties, they can give you clues.

Additionally, consider the player's age, contract situation (e.g. how many years left, reported release clauses) and examine previous statements regarding transfers.

Keep a Close Eye on The Odds

Many bookmakers don’t really like offering odds on transfers. Why? Because they know there are people out there who know more than them. You'll often find that maximum stakes for football transfer bets are strictly limited, as bookies don’t want their pants pulled down by people ‘in-the-know’.

The other weapon in the bookmaker’s armoury is conservative pricing. Bookies offer low odds when the markets open and respond to any news leaks by slashing the odds sharply. Be aware that fluctuations in odds normally mean a move is on the way, or has potentially been called off altogether.

Compile a List of Trusted Sources

Gather a list of reliable sources for your transfer information and keep an eye on what trusted, mainstream news outlets like Sky Sports or the BBC are saying. Social media can simultaneously be the best and worst place for transfer information - but if you focus on top football journalists with the best contacts in the game like Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) - you’ll get the most accurate up-to-date information.

Also keep an eye out for local journalists who report exclusively on one specific club. They might not have a big following, but often know more than national journalists who don't just cover one club exclusively. Sometimes their smaller social followings can work to your advantage, as their stories and tweets don't alert the oddsmakers in the same way as the big-hitters.