How To Pick A Winning Horse: Our Top 10 Strategy Tips

Learning how to pick a winning horse is a skill honed over a lifetime by the most dedicated racing punters. They'll tell you there's a lot more to it than just luck or gut feeling. 

While learning how to pick a horse requires intensive research, patience, and a sharp eye for detail, there are lots of strategies you can quickly employ to improve your chances of beating the bookmaker. 

Our Top 10 Strategy Tips For Picking Winners

When figuring out how to pick a winning horse, every bettor takes a different approach. 

There's certainly no one method. There are, in fact, lots of popular strategies. Some are more effective than others.

When grappling with a racecard at a horse racing betting site, newcomers be tempted to simply go with their gut instinct. Perhaps they might like the name of the horse or the colours of the jockey’s silks.

This might be OK if you're an infrequent bettor who only bets small stakes, but if that's not the case, you're better off using a coherent strategy.

Check out these top 10 tips to help you choose your racing bets more carefully and hopefully land some winners!

Study The Form

This is always a useful starting point when it comes to picking a winning horse in any race. 

Ideally, you would see plenty of '1s' as part of the form to indicate that they have been in the winner's enclosure on several occasions.

It might be that there are lots of horses in the race with strong form, but you might want to check when they last raced. 

You can also drill down and find out the grade of the race in which they ran. It might be that a particular horse finishing fifth was an impressive result, depending on the pedigree of his or her opponents in a certain race. 

If you want to get better at analysing and interpreting recent results, we recommend reading our full guide covering how to read form.

Have Any Horses Raced Each Other?

Ultimately, when figuring out how to pick a winning race horse, every race should be considered a jigsaw that you need to solve. 

Sometimes the missing pieces come when we consider how the leading contenders have previously fared against each other. 

It might be that the favourite has previously beaten other horses in the race, although you should pay attention to the winning distance on this front.

It can be particularly hard to marry the form of UK vs. Irish runners for Cheltenham Festival races, although you should at least be able to judge relative performance. 

When coming up with a strategy for any race, keep in mind that sometimes a horse’s third-placed finish behind a superstar is actually an impressive performance.

Course & Distance

While we're on the subject of form, we always recommend considering course and distance.

If you see the letters “CD” next to a horse’s name on the form guide, it means that the runner has previously won at that exact course and over the same distance. 

You’ve probably heard the phrase “horses for courses” and that certainly applies when it comes to many big meetings. There is a world of difference between a track like Cheltenham, with its undulations, and the likes of Haydock or Kempton Park. 

Who is The Trainer?

When betting on horse racing, you should be keenly aware of the leading trainers, and you might notice that one of the top trainers has a number of horses entered in a race. 

It’s often the case at big meetings that you see the likes of Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson or Gordon Elliott training multiple winners.

On the flip side, sometimes a Mullins horse might be artificially short in the betting, especially when there’s little form to go on. 

We don’t recommend blindly backing runners associated with a leading trainer as it can sometimes be difficult to pick the right one and make a profit. 

Who is the Jockey?

It naturally follows that the best jockeys get to ride the best horses. The top trainers generally have a primary rider and they often get to choose from the various horses entered in a race.

It can be quite telling when a leading jockey selects a particular horse for a race as they ultimately regard it as having a better chance than its stablemates. 

It doesn’t always mean the best jockeys win every race. Every rider in the field is a professional jockey who will look to deploy the tactics to suit the horse, but it’s always worth knowing who the best jockeys are and noting who is riding what animal.

Look at Weights For Handicap Races

There are many races known as handicaps and this means that the horses in the field are handicapped by different weights, according to their official ratings.

Therefore, the best horse on previous performance will be carrying top weight and the worst horse will be bottom weight.

However, handicapping horses is clearly not an exact science and it can often pay to select a runner who is carrying less weight around, especially over long distances. 

Sometimes a horse is regarded as being favourably handicapped and is among the favourites as a result.

Which Horses Will Be Suited to the Going? 

When it comes to a race meeting, there are lots of different types of 'going' (or ground conditions). 

Lots of rainfall will inevitably lead to soft or even heavy going, while sunshine will offer up good to firm going. 

Certain horses relish the chance to travel at faster speeds on good ground, while 'mudlarks' prefer the heavier stuff.

Therefore, when figuring out how to pick a winning horse at a particular meeting, it’s worth researching what the ground conditions are likely to be, as well as the preferred going of each horse running on the day.

Read More: Get the best Cheltenham offers for the 2025 Festival

Will Age be a Factor?

Experience is an important factor to consider when attempting to pick a winning horse. A younger horse might be a more progressive sort and still on an upward trajectory. 

Many National Hunt races feature horses of differing ages and it’s a question of working out whether this is a factor or not.

There are certain high-profile races at the Cheltenham Festival where there are age trends. 

For example, five-year-olds have traditionally not fared well in the Champion Hurdle, so tipsters and punters will take that into account when deciding who to back in that race.

Where is The Smart Money Going?

Experienced punters will offer up tips that can help you figure out how to pick a winning horse. 

One of the most important skills to pick up is how to watch the betting market leading up to the race. 

It might be that there’s a major gamble on one of the runners, which suggests that the horse is rumoured to stand a better chance than the odds imply.

This sort of thing happens in the hours leading up to a race and it’s worth keeping tabs on the horses who are shortening and drifting on the market. 

It doesn’t always follow that a heavily-backed horse will end up winning, although there’s usually a gamble for a reason.

Pro Tip: Best odds guaranteed offers can keep your price competitive

What Are The Each-Way Terms?

Many customers like to take the each-way betting option as it’s a sensible strategy for races where there are big fields. 

Betting each way means that you can enjoy a return if your selection(s) finish second, third, fourth or even fifth in their respective race.

Your stake will be doubled, with one part going on the win outcome and the other part going on the place outcome (at a fraction of the win odds).

The number of places paid out each-way can differ from one bookie to the next - and the best betting apps offer enhanced extra place terms on certain races.

Example: Flooring Porter in The Cheltenham Stayers' Hurdle

Flooring Porter was the winner of the 2021 Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, at a Starting Price of 12/1. 

The horse was popular with tipsters on the day of the race and shrewd punters noticed bookies shortening their prices on the Gavin Cromwell-trained runner throughout the morning.

Cromwell isn’t exactly a household name in horse racing circles, which worked in favour of savvy bettors, who were able to get a bigger price. 

Flooring Porter had already enjoyed strong form that season. There was an 11/1 victory in the Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle which had been over the same distance of three miles. 

The horse had also beaten Sire Du Berlais in that race, yet the latter was shorter at 5/1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, where it ultimately finished second.

Paisley Park was the uncertain betting favourite to win the race. The 2019 winner had only finished seventh in 2020, although the bookies still weren’t taking any chances with a horse that had won the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. 

On this occasion, however, the English form didn’t stand up to the Irish form and Flooring Porter won the race at a good price.

Key Takeaways

It should be noted that there are pros and cons when it comes to each of the various methods for picking a winner that we've covered. 

The same race would likely yield different winners if it was run a number of times, so you need some fortune in order to land a winning bet

Be sure to enjoy your horse racing betting by gambling responsibly and stick to a staking strategy so that you don't go over your betting budget.