Champions Trophy India v New Zealand: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v New Zealand predictions: 

• Shreyas Iyer over 26.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch Sports
• Shubman Gill over 32.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch Sports
• Mitchell Santner under 1.5 wickets - 1.33 @ Parimatch Sports

When: Sunday 2 March, 2:30 pm IST

Where: Dubai International Cricket Stadium

Watch: Star Sports, Sports18

Best Odds: India 1.44, New Zealand 2.75

India have gone two wins from two in their Champions Trophy home of Dubai and both in pretty comfortable fashion, taking ten wickets and losing just four in each match and each with at least three different batters scoring at least 40 runs. 

They and New Zealand have already qualified for the semi-finals of the tournament and, now in their final Group A match, will face each other in what could well be a dress rehearsal for the March 9 final which will take place in Dubai should India qualify. 

India have played more ODIs without losing in Dubai (W7, T1) than any other nation and have proven to be just as comfortable there as they would be on home soil, with the fact they’re not moving between cities proving to be substantially advantageous. 

Cricket betting sites have quoted very similar odds for India to win their third match when compared with the first two, and for that reason we have again looked to three players you should (or in one case, should not) consider for your investments!

The Numbers That Matter

• Eight of the last ten ODIs in Dubai were won chasing
• The average run rate in those ten games was just 4.42rpo
• O’Rourke is the only bowler of either side to take 2+ wickets in both games
• Shami to Conway in all white ball cricket: 4-16 from 4 overs

Super Shreyas 

Shreyas Iyer confirmed his place as India’s Champions Trophy number four with three consecutive 40+ scores in the warm-up series against England and lived up to his promise with an assured 56 against Pakistan. 

It was his second straight half-century in an ODI against Pakistan and now he faces his favourite opposition in terms of pure statistics. 

Shreyas has notched up 484 runs from just seven H2H innings in this format, averaging nearly 70 despite being dismissed on every single occasion. 

In all seven innings against the Blackcaps, he went beyond 30 runs including two centuries and three fifties, making it a very appealing prospect to back him to clear 26.5 runs with Indian cricket betting apps.

He has never been dismissed in an ODI by any of New Zealand’s last bowling attack despite making 118 runs, whilst in both white ball formats his average against them is an astonishing 159.  

Prediction: Shreyas Iyer over 26.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch Sports

How much longer can the Gill form possibly last?

The Indian opener is undoubtedly the form player of world cricket at this current time, batting or bowling, already racking up 406 runs from his five innings in the last four weeks to go with his astounding 1584 in 2023 (avg 63). 

It speaks volumes of his incredible performances in 2025, that his 46 against Pakistan was his worst ODI innings of the calendar year, and those backing him to score big on the best Indian bookmakers are winning big and winning consistently. 

Everything marries up and points towards him succeeding for at least one more innings.

He looks most comfortable in Dubai batting conditions and, whilst Will O’Rourke’s steepling bounce could be a handful, he has dominated the remainder of the bowling attack.

In fact, Matt Henry (1-61 from 13 overs) is the only bowler used in New Zealand’s last innings to have dismissed Gill in an ODI, and he averages a gobsmacking 249 in this format against the last Kiwi attack. 

That’s why he has two centuries and two fifties from his last eight innings including the Black Caps including a magical double ton in Hyderabad.

His personal averages across both white ball formats against Mitchell Santner (136) and Michael Bracewell (73) are also astronomical, so if he can see out the first O’Rourke spell he’s set to go big again. 

Prediction: Shubman Gill over 32.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch Sports

New Zealand’s new captain hasn’t enjoyed this matchup

One of those head-to-heads plays into our final selection which, whilst not at any kind of enticing odds, should add a 33% boost to your accumulators for this match. 

Mitchell Santner has had plenty of experience against India’s current lineup across all formats but with terribly limited success. 

India is Santner’s worst opposition when it comes to bowling in ODIs, underlined by a dreadful bowling average of 62.

Despite facing off against them in ODIs 23 times, Santner has taken more than one wicket against India just once - 2-58 in Kanpur eight years ago - and his form against India’s likely XI is just as bad.

He averages 55 runs and 14 overs per ODI wicket against India’s top seven, and of his ten wickets, four of them were against Hardik Pandya (4-32) who wasn’t even required against Bangladesh.

Compared to the others, he averages 87 runs and 100 deliveries per wicket in ODIs! 

Prediction: Mitchell Santner under 1.5 wickets - 1.33 @ Parimatch Sports