Flutter Trims 2026 Outlook After Sports Results And Brazil Closure Weigh On Q3
Flutter Entertainment has lowered its full-year outlook after a third quarter in which unfavourable sports results and the shutdown of its Brazilian business cut into profit.
In its Q3 2026 earnings release, the group reduced its 2026 revenue guidance at the midpoint by $300 million to $17.61 billion and cut its adjusted EBITDA guidance by $160 million to $2.495 billion.
Group revenue for the three months to September 30 rose 2% to $3.87 billion, but adjusted EBITDA fell 25% to $360 million.
Flutter reported a net loss of $1.15 billion, compared with a $789 million loss a year earlier, driven mainly by an $873 million non-cash impairment on Brazil and a $105 million increase in legal loss contingencies tied to a class action in Australia.
The results are the first under new chief executive Dan Taylor, who took over after the appointment of a new CEO at the operator behind FanDuel, Paddy Power and Sky Bet.
What Changed In The Guidance
Flutter said the update reflects sports results in Q3 and early Q4, plus the previously disclosed Brazil closure, partly offset by cost measures. Early Q4 trading was in line with expectations on an underlying basis, though results have been unfavourable in both the US and internationally.
In the US, the group trimmed revenue by $60 million and adjusted EBITDA by $45 million. The midpoint now sits at $7.34 billion in revenue and $715 million in EBITDA.
International takes the bigger hit: revenue is down $240 million to $10.27 billion, and EBITDA is down $115 million to $2.09 billion.
Sports results alone account for $170 million of the revenue cut and $115 million of the EBITDA cut, while Brazil removes $70 million of revenue and $20 million of EBITDA, with $20 million of mitigating cost savings.
Flutter also lifted its expected transaction, restructuring, and integration costs to about $620 million, up $120 million from the Q2 estimate, mainly due to a higher legal provision. Other guidance items were left unchanged.
Brazil Closure And Sports Results
Flutter said its Brazilian operations closed on September 26, 2026, after a Provisional Measure that provisionally banned online sports betting sites and iGaming.
The company restructured to keep Betnacional as its only brand in the country and closed its Betfair operations there. Brazil revenue fell 31% in the quarter.
Taylor said the group is very disappointed with the measure, and that Flutter is ready to resume operations once the future regulatory framework is clear. Our earlier coverage of the group's mixed Brazil results shows how the market had already been under pressure.
Sports results were also unfavourable. In the US, the in-quarter revenue impact was about $38 million, similar to a year ago. Internationally, customer-friendly results at the start of the soccer season in the UK and Ireland and in south-east Europe cost an estimated $131 million of revenue in the quarter, and the UK remote gaming duty rise from 21% to 40% weighed on margins.
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US Investment And Prediction Markets
US revenue grew 6% to $1.455 billion, with sportsbook up 4% and iGaming up 8%, but adjusted EBITDA dropped 94% to $3 million after investment in FanDuel Predicts and the launch in Alberta.
FanDuel Predicts had an average of 66,000 monthly players in Q3 and traded $119 million in volume, up 102% from the previous quarter. Flutter said October volume was 271% higher than July.
Taylor said the impact of prediction markets on existing customers has been limited so far, but media costs are starting to rise as rivals spend more on marketing.
Flutter expects marketing intensity in 2027 to remain at levels similar to this year and plans further investment in prediction markets.
On costs, the group expects an additional $500 million in gross operating cost and capital expenditure savings by 2029 through AI, removing layers and duplication, and simplifying technology.
Net debt stood at $10.66 billion at the end of Q3, with a leverage ratio of 4.6x, and Flutter refinanced its revolving credit facility and Term Loan A, extending maturity to May 2032.
