UK General Election: How Will The Conservatives Do?

UK General Election: How Will The Conservatives Do?

Tracking the UK Conservative party election odds throughout a five-year parliament is something not very many online betting fans do – yet they’re missing a trick. The Tories are one of the most successful political parties in the world and are a safe bet for those into political betting to be challenging for every UK election.

In fact, down the years there have been instances where the party has been so successful that the Conservative odds on them winning an election haven’t been worth backing! In this instance, bettors usually flock to the numerous side bets that spring up around election time.

In this guide, you’ll discover more about how to Conservative party works, how they gear up for general elections and who right now has a chance of faring well on election night. The next planned UK election isn’t until the summer of 2024 – but that doesn’t mean you can’t get ahead of the game by tracking these markets today!

When it comes to political betting, most punters will consider backing the Conservatives at some point. The party is the go-to destination for most right-wing voters, thanks to its economically liberal and socially conservative policies.

We are currently more than two years out from the next vote, and the latest UK election betting odds have the Tories as the Evens (1/1) favourites to win. These odds have not really shifted since Boris Johnson steered the Conservatives to their last election victory in 2019. In fact, the stable market highlights just how confident punters are right now that another Tory win is on the horizon.

The number of Conservative seats in parliament right now is 361. That gives the party a majority of 81 seats, while Labour – the main opposition party – has 199 MPs.

The majority is considered reasonably strong and indicates that the country has mandated the government to carry out its election promises.

But what’s also interesting is Johnson increased the Blue majority at the 2019 election, which suggests there is a growing appetite for a centre-right and populist rule.

Looking ahead then, you may be asking whether you should bet on a Conservative victory. The answer right now is probably yes. With Johnson in charge and Sir Keir Starmer offering little to nudge Labour into a position to challenge, it appears as though the 2024 election will be won by the Tories.

UK Tory Election Candidates

We may be two years out from the next election but it’s worth considering who the big names we’re likely to see on the Tory election trail are come 2024. Assuming Johnson hasn’t quit as prime minister or been ousted by his own party, we’re likely to see the former journalist successfully bumble his way around the country once again to drum up support.

He is likely to be flanked by Tory grandees such as Michael Gove, Liz Truss, and Sajid Javid. These figures have been a central part of the Conservative political machine for some time now and are arguably the face of the party.

But what is also integral to Johnson’s success has been the victories of what were usually known as ‘Red Wall’ seats across the north of England. The Conservatives claimed numerous Labour strongholds in 2019, and it is these MPs who are considered the big winners from that election. UK bookmakers were rattled by the fall of heavy-hitting Labour constituencies – and they’re unlikely to be so careless when setting their 2024 UK election odds this time.

New Faces and Stalwarts

While Johnson has plenty of the old guard around him, some fresher faces are heading into the 2024 election that the population – and political betting fans – are much more aware of now. Chancellor Rishi Sunak is one of the more popular Tory figures following his successful furlough scheme deployed during the coronavirus pandemic. The former banker was barely heard of at the 2015 election but is now a central pillar in No. 10’s political strategy.

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Brandon Lewis, James Cleverly, and Kit Malthouse are others who the public are likely to recognise more now than when they first ran for office.

Yet recognition can work as much against you as it can in your favour. After all, commanding a high-stakes position such as a cabinet job means you are open to much more criticism than if you remain a lowly back-bencher. The likes of Dominic Raab and Matt Hancock may struggle to retain their seats in 2024 following somewhat disastrous stints around Johnson’s top table.

Figures such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, Sir Peter Bottomley, and David Davis, meanwhile, represent the old guard of the Conservative party that has been in parliament for decades. Their presence helps retain the supposed ‘grey vote’ at each election, while their eccentricities can often entice younger voters to the party too.

UK Parliament Conservative Candidates Betting Odds

We’re still a long way out from betting on individual constituencies at the next general election but punters can find value in tracking the comings and goings from Westminster ahead of time, not to mention that this will also give you an advantage on ante-post betting odds.

Boris Johnson betting, for example, is a regular occurrence among political gamblers. Johnson is not considered a safe bet to be in charge come the next election. This is partly down to the tumultuous first two years in office where Brexit issues and the Covid pandemic have dogged his premiership. But there is also the fact that Johnson isn’t considered a ‘serious’ politician and, once he’s tasted power for some time, will probably become intrigued with some new venture and move on.

Johnson is currently 6/4 to step away from power before the next UK election, and 1/2 to be there to defend his position.

This highlights just how viable a market for betting on the next Tory leader – and therefore potentially the next prime minister – is right now. The political betting odds suggest Sunak at 2/1 is primed to replace Johnson, although Gove (6/1) and Truss (7/1) are both contenders. Truss in particular boasts high approval ratings among Tory members and has progressed from environment minister to trade and then foreign secretary.

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Tips for Backing the UK Conservative Party

When it comes to betting on the Tories it’s not always smart to stick with the UK Conservative party election odds. That’s because their odds of winning the election may be so slim that your potential profit isn’t worth the risk.

One of the big tips political betting strategists suggest, therefore, is to look at the majority splits and other side bets. Around election time you can usually bet on the following markets:

  • Tory majority – Bet on whether the Conservatives will win a majority or rule as a minority government, or perhaps even as a coalition as was the case between 2010 and 2015.
  • Size of majority – Bet on the number of MPs the Conservatives will have in majority over the rest of the Commons. Legislation needs 50% + 1 to pass through parliament, so a big majority is ideal for ruling prime ministers.
  • Specific seats – You can even bet on individual constituencies during a UK election. This means you can zone in on seats that could provide upsets – such as the numerous Red Wall seats in 2019 – and get some great prices on Tory candidates few other people will have even heard of.
  • Vote share – Often you can bet on the overall vote share of a party compared to rivals, be it in specific constituencies or nationwide.

Conservative Betting in Scotland

During the UK election, the Conservatives usually struggle to win seats in Scotland. That’s partially because historically Labour have always fared well north of the border. But, in the past two decades, Scottish nationalists have accelerated past the ‘traditional’ Westminster parties and now form the bulk of Scottish politics.

Betting on the Conservatives vs Scottish National Party candidates is considered a losing strategy. After all, the SNP have mastered the art of ousting Tories from Scotland, as well as Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

It is now generally assumed that the Tory heartland lies in the south and rural areas, while Labour still dominates in the majority of English and Welsh cities. In Scotland, the SNP holds the heavy majority.

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