England v Australia Fifth Ashes Test: Tips, Predictions, Odds and Best Bets
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England v Australia Fifth Ashes Test Predictions:
- England To Win - 13/10 with Ladbrokes
- David Warner Under 24.5 First Innings Runs - 3/4 with Bet365
- Stuart Broad Under 2.5 First Innings Wickets - 7/10 with Unibet
When: Thursday, July 27 - Monday, July 31, 11am (BST)
Where: The Oval, London
Watch: Sky Sports (10am BST)
Best Odds: England 13/10, Draw 31/10, Australia 7/4
Whichever side of the fence you lean on, there’s no disputing that England destroyed Australia across the three-and-a-bit days of play in Manchester and deserved nothing less than a 2-2 scoreline heading to The Oval.
A live series heading into the Fifth Test would have been snugly befitting of a tour that has teased, tantalised, thrilled and taken Ashes cricket into an exciting new era.
After three lengthy and gripping arm wrestles, England finally assumed dominance at Old Trafford and betting sites have moved their odds accordingly.
The highs and lows of a rain-sodden draw will be all for nothing if Australia go on to win three games in the series anyway, and after four years of talking about the disappointment of a drawn series in 2019, Australian captain Pat Cummins will be hellbent on ensuring they’re celebrating an Ashes triumph rather than a mere retention come next Monday.
The Numbers That Matter
- Five of the last six Oval Tests were won by the team that batted first
- Steve Smith has amassed 546 runs from seven Oval innings at 91.00
- Mitchell Starc has taken just seven wickets at 49.43 in Oval Tests
- Ben Stokes has scored 40+ runs in two of nine innings at The Oval
- Mitchell Marsh took 12 wickets at 14.33 across his Oval Tests in 2015 and 2019
- Usman Khawaja is the only man of the series to record his team’s top first innings score in two separate matches
Can England Repeat the Complete Performance?
Winning the series is going to be easier said than done for the Australians who's odds have drifted recently with cricket betting sites. It will certainly need a change of plans and personnel, though after having effectively had an additional two days off between Tests, bowler rotations may not be as necessary as was initially anticipated for either side.
England restricted all but one of the 18 Australian batters that stepped out onto Old Trafford to scores of 51 runs or fewer whilst conceding only one century partnership across the two innings and keeping the Aussies to run rates of 3.50 and 3.01 respectively.
In response, they were able to unleash their unbridled batting aggression upon Australia with wonderful success, reducing Pat Cummins to a helpless spectator during the worst day of his captaincy career to date.
England will retain the same batting order for The Oval, especially now that Moeen Ali and Jonny Bairstow are amongst the runs, whilst a limpless James Anderson (four series wickets at an average of 76) will probably be omitted for the return of either Ollie Robinson or Josh Tongue.
Chris Woakes and Mark Wood once again combined for 10 match wickets and have been instrumental in England taking control of this series (at least when the weather has been conducive to cricket), and they’ve both played a big role in neutralising some of Australia’s greatest threats.
Just when David Warner started to find some runs against his long-time nemesis Broad, Woakes stepped up to dismiss him twice for just 13 runs, whilst Wood brought both of Steve Smith’s innings to premature ends and now has Smith’s wicket four times at an average of across the last two series.
Surrey opened up their County Championship season with three successful run chases at The Oval by margins of nine, nine and 10 wickets (including 247-1 against Hampshire) which plays right into England’s comfort zone of batting second, should they get the opportunity to do so.
They’ve won four of their last five Tests at The Oval and should handle the conditions much better than India did in the World Test Championship final, and will likely select a more suitable bowling lineup for the ground than India also.
Too often the Australians were guilty of being defensive, right from the moment that they began the series with a deep point to Zak Crawley to choosing a deep batting lineup stacked with all-rounders in Manchester in an attempt to bat England out of a victory.
Now that England have cracked the code and found the method of getting on top of Australia, and appear to have ironed out the mistakes that allowed Australia to win the key moments of the first two games, there appears no turning back.
Tip: England To Win - 13/10 with Ladbrokes
David Warner To Bow Out on a Low?
The embattled Australian opener intends on retiring from Test cricket against Pakistan at his home ground (the SCG) this coming home season, but his performance at The Oval could determine whether or not he’ll be granted that opportunity.
Warner has laboured and toiled to get past his nemesis Broad and the new ball after struggling through the first Test, but now has other issues to contend with: his aforementioned struggles against Woakes is also accompanied by head-to-head figures of 2/37 against Josh Tongue, who is in the mix to replace Anderson.
Woakes, Tongue and Broad have all been excellent during their contributions to this series, nipping the ball around on probing lengths and often drawing Warner into regrettable shots.
Now he has to fight for his career at one of the least successful venues of his Test career (no surprise that most of them are English). Warner’s seven Oval innings have returned just 163 runs at an average of 23.29, the bulk of which came from a score of 85 in 2015.
Tip: David Warner Under 24.5 First Innings Runs - 3/4 with Bet365
Has Stuart Broad Run Out of Gas?
Ironically, whilst Broad could be the most likely candidate to bring us a modest collect at the expense of Warner’s happiness, we’re anticipating Broad to be stifled by a flat Oval pitch in what will be his sixth Test in two months.
Just fronting up for the entire Ashes series as well as the Ireland match that preceded it is an incredible effort for any fast bowler, yet alone a man of his age, but his figures of 2/115 in Manchester suggested his impact is dwindling.
Broad has now failed to take at least three first innings wickets in three consecutive Tests, saving his best for the back end of the match at Lord’s and Headingley, whilst his historical efforts at The Oval have been without great reward.
Figures of 4/41 in a 10-wicket win over South Africa last season was the only instance from his last 11 matches at The Oval in which he had more than 2.5 first innings scalps to his name, and with the urn now out of reach, it could be possible that he fizzles out after a magnificent series.
We were also very interested in backing Mitchell Starc to take fewer than 2.5 first innings wickets given his poor record at The Oval and the signs of fatigue beginning to take over, and have done so on the proviso that we will be refunded should he miss out.
Tip: Stuart Broad Under 2.5 First Innings Wickets - 7/10 with Unibet
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