IG Group Agrees to Buy Underdog for Up to $1.3 Billion in US Prediction Markets Push
IG Group has agreed to buy US daily fantasy sports and prediction markets operator Underdog for total consideration of up to about $1.3 billion, a deal that pushes the London-listed trading firm into one of the fastest-growing corners of the American market.
The purchase pairs a UK trading and investing group with a sports-native US operator at a moment when trading, sports betting and prediction markets are increasingly overlapping. Breon Corcoran, chief executive of IG Group, said the deal establishes IG as a leader in US prediction markets and accelerates its growth in what he called the world's largest and fastest-growing retail trading market.
Deal Terms And Structure
The headline figure breaks down into an upfront enterprise value of about $1.1 billion, equivalent to 2.4 times Underdog's net revenue for the 12 months to June 30, 2026, plus an earnout of up to about $200 million payable to Underdog shareholders. The earnout depends on 2026 net gaming revenue targets and on Underdog reaching positive EBITDA for the year, and is expected to be paid in cash in early 2027.
IG published the full terms in its acquisition announcement.
IG expects the upfront equity value on completion to be about $963 million. It plans to settle that by issuing roughly 24.1 million new shares, around 6.8% of its enlarged share capital and 60% of the upfront equity value, with a further $380 million in cash. The group will also repay about $160 million of Underdog debt at completion.
Separately, Underdog employees will share in a management incentive plan capped at $850 million, self-funded from the business's earnings and paid only on strong outperformance. The maximum payout would require Underdog to deliver EBITDA of at least $400 million in 2028 and $700 million in 2029.
Underdog's Growth And Prediction Markets
Underdog reported net revenue of about $466 million for the 12 months to June 30, 2026, up 21% on the $380 million recorded a year earlier. In the three months to June 30, 2026 it posted net revenue of about $122 million and EBITDA of about $46 million.
Founded in 2020, Underdog is the second-largest US daily fantasy sports operator by revenue, behind PrizePicks. It moved into prediction markets in September 2025 and, IG said, has since become the third-largest US prediction markets venue by regulated notional volume, behind Kalshi and Robinhood.
A Full US Licence Stack
The deal also hands IG a full US licence stack for event contracts: a futures commission merchant, a designated contract market and a derivatives clearing organisation, all overseen federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That structure lets Underdog list and settle its own sports event contracts, a capability it completed with the July 18, 2026 launch of its own exchange.
Jeremy Levine, co-founder and chief executive of Underdog, said the tie-up would expand its reach: "IG's scale, expertise, resources and reach are going to unlock our potential, expand what we've built, and bring our products to more audiences."
What Happens Next
Completion is expected in late 2026 or early 2027, subject to US regulatory approvals and clearance under the Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust rules.
