EKG Forecasts $40 Billion In NFL Wagering For 2026 Season
Americans are on track to wager roughly $40 billion on the 2026 NFL season, according to a new forecast from research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG), with regulated sportsbooks retaining the large majority of that action despite the rapid growth of prediction markets.
Sportsbooks Still Lead By A Wide Margin
EKG's note, titled "NFL Wagering To Hit $40bn This Season" and published September 16, estimates $31.7 billion of handle will flow through regulated retail and online sportsbooks, compared with roughly $8.4 billion through prediction market platforms offering NFL-linked event contracts.
That works out to close to a 79%-21% split in favor of traditional sportsbooks.
The forecast was first reported by CNBC, which noted that sportsbooks are still capturing around 80% of NFL wagering activity, even as prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have aggressively expanded into sports-outcome contracts over the past year.
Why Prediction Markets Are Gaining Ground
Prediction markets have marketed themselves as a federally regulated alternative to state-licensed sports betting, allowing them to operate in states where sports betting is illegal or where they have not sought a gambling license.
That positioning has fueled rapid handle growth, even as several states, including Connecticut, Nevada and others, have moved to challenge the legality of sports-outcome contracts under state gambling law.
EKG's forecast suggests that despite the regulatory fights and prediction markets' growing share of NFL wagering, the core of the market remains with licensed operators, particularly for bettors who value in-game betting markets, same-game parlays and other product features that traditional sportsbooks have built out over the past several years.
A Record-Setting Start To The Season
The forecast lands against a backdrop of strong early-season betting activity.
New York sportsbooks alone took in a record $595 million in wagers during NFL Week 1, according to state figures reported by ESPN, underscoring the scale of demand EKG's full-season projection is built on.
EKG's research has closely tracked the prediction-market sector as it has expanded from election and economic contracts to sports outcomes over the past two years.
Its 79%-21% split for the 2026 NFL season suggests that, while prediction markets have carved out a meaningful and fast-growing niche, they remain a secondary channel next to licensed sportsbooks for the industry's single biggest annual betting event.
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