MLB Betting Advice for Games on the Aug. 10 Schedule
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
Interleague Best Bet
Atlanta Braves -145 at Boston Red Sox +130
7:10 p.m. ET
There is no reason not to back the Atlanta Braves in this game with newfound phenom Kyle Wright pitching tonight.
The Braves could use a great start from Wright to take the workload off the bullpen. Atlanta’s starters have averaged 5.33 innings, but over the past three games have only averaged 4.73 innings per start.
Wright is 13-5 in 21 starts with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.166 WHIP and is averaging 6.1 innings per start. He is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing six earned runs over six innings in a 6-4 loss to the New York Mets at CitiField.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Braves using the –1.5 run line.
- Atlanta manager Brian Snitker is 78-38, making 30 units on the moneyline, when facing a team that averages three or fewer walks per game in the second half of the season.
- Boston manager Alex Cora is 12-28, losing 15 units on the moneyline, when facing a team with a winning percentage between 54 and 63% in games played in the second half of the season.
- Wright is 13-0, making 13 units on the moneyline, when the total has been between 8.5 and 10 runs.
I am betting the Atlanta Braves using the moneyline priced at –142 as offered at FanDuel.
National League Best Bet
Miami Marlins +115 at Philadelphia Phillies -125
7:05 p.m. ET
The Phillies have won six straight games and nine of the past 10. They face the Marlins’ ace and NL Cy Young favorite, Sandy Alcantara, tonight.
The Phillies will counter with Noah Syndergaard, who they acquired for two minor leaguers with just two minutes remaining to the trade deadline last Tuesday.
Alcantara leads the majors with 6.0 WAR for pitchers, second with a 1.88 ERA, fourth with a .935 WHIP, and first with 158 1/3 innings.
Despite how well he has pitched, he will be going up against a Top 5 offense in the Phillies.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Phillies in this matchup.
- The Phillies are 9-0 since the All-Star break when facing a team averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits.
- The Phillies are 16-7, making 11 units on the moneyline, when facing a National League starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or lower.
- The Marlins are 16-36, losing 15.3 units, when priced as a dog on the moneyline.
I will bet the Phillies on the moneyline at -125 as offered at BetMGM.
Quick Pitches
These are player prop bets to consider today. I hit on four of the five picks on Tuesday.
- Bet the Angels' Max Stassi -145 to get a hit as offered at FanDuel.
- Bet the Mariners' J.P. Crawford to get 2+ hits +500 as offered at FanDuel.
- Bet the Blue Jays' Jose Berrios Over 2.5 earned runs allowed -114 at Caesars.
- Bet the Marlins' Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +110 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Dodgers' Ryan Pepiot Under 2.5 earned runs allowed -140 at DraftKings.
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