MLB Picks: Can Cleveland Knock off Yankees in New York?

MLB Picks: Can Cleveland Knock off Yankees in New York?
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To help with your MLB betting, we take a look at today's playoff game.

 

Cleveland Guardians +132 at New York Yankees -156

7:07 p.m. ET, TBS

The Guardians have the second-best record in MLB since July 8, when the Yankees had their biggest lead in the American League East standings at 15.5 games. 

The Yankees are two games under .500 since July 8. I am going with the Guardians in this spot because the current market pricing provides 50 basis points in value from what my models price this game.

Consider a Combination Wager using the Run Line and the Moneyline

The moneyline is intriguing as well, so consider an optional betting strategy in which you take 75% of your normal bet size and place it on the +1.5 run line and add the remaining 25% amount using the moneyline.

What to Expect in Game 5

I am expecting the Guardians' production in Game 5 will more closely resemble Saturday's comeback win. On Saturday in Game 3, the Guardians went 9-for-17 with runners in scoring position with 15 hits, but in Game 4, they had just six hits, struck out 11 times and were 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position.

This game will resemble a bullpen game with all hands on deck for both squads. The Guardians' pen has been excellent in the postseason, leading all playoff teams with .5 RPG (This stat includes earned and unearned runs). 

The Yankees pen has not been so good, ranking second worst (Dodgers were last), allowing 1.25 runs. The Yankees have lost two games in this playoff series after having the early lead against the Guardians.

Situational Trends and Angles

  • The road teams are 79-59 for 57% and making playoff games in the deciding last game of any series for an 18% return on investment.
  • Road underdogs of +125 to +150 in the deciding last game of any playoff series are 19-16 SU, averaging a 139 moneyline bet and producing a 28% ROI.
  • Road underdogs of any price in the last game of a five-game series are 15-10 for 60%, averaging a +145 wager and producing a 42% ROI.

I am betting on the Guardians in Game 5 using the moneyline priced at +135 at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

  • Bet 50% of your normal bet amount ‘pre-flop’ (before the game starts) on the Guardians using the moneyline.
  • If, during the first three innings, the Yankees score first and not more than three runs in total, bet the remaining 50% using the live in-game moneyline price on the Guardians, who could get inflated to above +200.

 

Quick Pitches

These are player prop bets to consider today.

  • Bet the Guardians' Aaron Civale to get the win +140 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Guardians' Josh Naylor Over 1.5 total bases +150 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Yankees' Harrison Bader to hit a home run +900 at BetRivers.
  • Bet that there will be a run scored in the first inning +100 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Guardians' win by 3 runs +1150 at BetMGM.

In 189 prop bets, I have an 83-106 record, making a profit of $469 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,395 per $100 wager. The results have produced a 61% return on investment (ROI) for the 2022 MLB season and playoffs.

 

 

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