Best Football Betting Strategies
You'll need a coherent football betting strategy to beat the oddsmakers, which you can apply long-term.
This is Gambling.com’s ultimate guide to football betting success. Here, you’ll find helpful tips while learning to avoid common mistakes. We also share guides to hedge betting, how to bet on your team, and more.
Notes:
- In this article, “football” refers to the global game known as “soccer” in the United States and Canada.
- Odds are presented in fractional and decimal formats, though they may appear differently depending on your region or betting site.
- Dollar amounts are shown in U.S. currency ($), but the strategies and principles apply globally regardless of your local currency.
Football Markets Explained
It isn't easy to know where to start if you try to navigate football betting markets. However, the markets themselves are self-explanatory.
These days, betting sites are focused on giving bettors as many opportunities to bet as possible, and we see that in evidence with such diverse football betting markets as “first goal to be an own goal,” “who will register a clean sheet,” and “who will concede a penalty.”
Here are some of the many options outside of Win Markets that are available online.
Draw No Bet & Double Chance Markets
If you are browsing Premier League betting odds, for example, and want to place a bet on Chelsea to beat West Ham, but without the chance of a draw, you can use the “draw no bet” market.
If you think Chelsea will win or draw full-time, you can bet on the “double chance” market, which gives you both options, although at a diminished price.
Win to Nil & Correct Score Markets
If you feel that Chelsea will win without their opposition scoring, then the best market to use is the “win to nil” market, which allows you to bet on Chelsea not conceding a goal. Predicting the correct score is a very popular market among bettors; as its name suggests, you must guess the correct score at the end of the match.
The odds for this market are usually excellent because predicting the outcome is almost pure guesswork.
Goalscorer Markets
Goals and goalscorer markets can pay off nicely when approached correctly. Predicting the first goal scorer can be difficult, seeing as there will be a chance of any one of eight or nine players likely to get on the score sheet.
Of course, any one of 22 players can score, but there is less chance of a defender scoring than a forward. This, along with “anytime scorer,” “first to score for their team,” “last goal scored,” and “first to score two or more goals,” each follows the same pattern: odds are offered by betting sites for each respective outcome, and you bet on whichever development you think will happen.
This is a secondary market that’s always worth a look at when considering a bet.
Half-Time / Full-Time Market
Estimating the correct score at half-time and full-time is also a popular option, as is guessing who will be ahead at both stages. For all these secondary football betting markets, the odds provided are bound to be better than the straight “win-draw-lose,” so it is worth hunting around for the market that suits you best.
Top Goalscorer betting is available on plenty of football leagues and tournaments. You pick the player who will score the most goals throughout the campaign to win on any League Top Scorer market.
It could be the Premier League Top Scorer, it could be the Champions League Top Scorer, or it might even be a tournament like the World Cup, where you’re betting on who will win perhaps the most coveted Golden Boot of all.
Cards Markets
Many sites have pre-match sections devoted to “Cards." These types of markets also lend themselves well to live betting.
The first card betting market you’ll generally see is “Number of Cards in Match,” a straight choice between over or under a certain number of cards.
For a standard game, you might expect the line to be 2.5 cards, although it could be a good deal higher for a match such as a derby or one involving teams with poor disciplinary records. You can also bet on a particular player to be booked.
This is a really fun market. You might see the favorite trading at around 3/1, although several players generally trade at the 9/2 mark, which can represent a decent return.
We then have something called Card Handicap, where you can bet on which team will get the most cards, and there are also markets such as Asian Total Cards, First Card Received, Time of First Card, Team Cards, First 10 Minutes, and Red Card in the Match.
‘The Sack Race’ Market
This market is available for some off-pitch betting. Sites take bets on which manager will be next to fall on his sword or be pushed out the door. Even though the market is colloquially known as “The Sack Race,” you may often find it more formally named “Next Manager to Leave."
The average tenure of a Premier League manager has plummeted in recent years due to the increasingly cut-throat nature of the business. Relegation can prove financially catastrophic for a top-flight club, and owners with little patience now sack their managers with alarming regularity when results go south.
At the other end of the table, failure to achieve a top-four finish to qualify for the Champions League can also doom managers at elite clubs, ensuring that the managerial merry-go-round becomes a fascinating feature of every season.
Therefore, the sack race has become an extremely popular market for the Premier League. It can be highly lucrative, and it is worth paying close attention to the rumblings of discontent among fans at all the struggling sides.
Scorecast
A scorecast is a type of combined bet where you predict two outcomes in a single wager:
- The first goalscorer
- The correct final score of the match
The bet is a winner only if both predictions are correct.
When you play a scorecast, it pays to look back at the previous six matches involving each team so you can identify betting trends that might help you with this bet.
You can also factor in general stats, such as the most common final scores. When placing scorecasts, we look for strong defensive teams that could potentially combine a particular player with a series of scorelines, such as 1-0, 2-0, and 3-0.
Wincasts
Similar to a scorecast, a wincast is a type of combination bet where you predict:
- A specific player to score a goal (usually anytime)
- The player’s team to win the match
Like a scorecast, both bet parts must be correct for the wager to pay out. Once again, it helps to look at previous results involving both teams. You might study home vs. away win-loss records. The overall league table standings will provide a solid view if the percentages approach does not convince you.
To research in depth, look at stats such as shots on target and expected goals, which will help paint the clearest picture possible before you place your bets.
Asian Handicap Betting
Another increasingly popular method is Asian handicapping, a form of fixed-odds betting.
The Asian handicap in football betting evolved because the Asian market loved to bet on English football. However, bettors didn’t want to lose on a full-time draw, leading to a system whereby both teams in any given match are given a handicap or spread before the game. This differential is often offered in fractional form (e.g., 0.5 goals, 1.5 goals), eliminating the possibility of a draw outcome.
The system also means that the chance of smaller sides winning against the spread dramatically increases.
For example, if West Ham, with goal odds +1.5, were playing away against Manchester City with goal odds of -1.5, both at fixed odds of 11/8, then West Ham’s chances of providing a winning bet would be substantially higher than the 10/1 they were initially priced at. So, while lay betting is generally used to build the bank in smaller, incremental sums, Asian handicap betting tends to encourage larger, individual wins.
8 Steps for Creating Your Football Betting System
No. 1: Manage a Football Betting Bankroll
It’s essential that having a set bankroll is part of your football betting strategy throughout each season.
Whatever system you decide to use, there should be a maximum amount that you are prepared to gamble within a defined time period. You may bet less than this amount, but never more.
Start by betting a certain amount of money on football matches over a weekly or monthly period, irrespective of whether the bets you make are winners or losers.
The advantage of having a set cap is that it helps you to track your profit/loss and bet within your means.
The best football betting sites can help you with this football betting strategy, as they allow you to set a daily, weekly, or monthly deposit limit when you sign up for a betting account, while making it easy to track your net deposits and withdrawals.
No. 2: Have a Staking Plan
In addition to having a specific bankroll for a day, week, or month’s betting, you should also consider how much you want to stake on each football bet and what percentage of your overall bankroll that constitutes.
Many successful bettors use a football betting system where they bet specific amounts according to the strength of their opinion on a particular selection.
A hot pick might be regarded as “maximum bet” territory, where you bet the most significant amount that you're prepared to lose on a football bet, only on the basis that you are supremely confident.
Some football betting strategies involve staking larger amounts on selections at shorter odds and smaller amounts on bigger-priced picks.
Others might adopt a staking plan that spreads the risk so that a specific bankroll covers many bets. Some bets will win, and you can secure some kind of return rather than putting all your eggs in one basket by staking your entire balance on a single pick.
No. 3: Regularly Review Your Football Betting Activity
Bettors probably don’t spend as much time as they should reflecting on their bets once settled. A win is celebrated, a loss is lamented, and it’s time to consider the next football match.
However, we highly recommend reviewing your bets as part of your overall football betting strategy. Log in to your account and scroll through your betting activity for a specific period.
Betting sites should display your profit and loss to get a completely transparent view of your online betting performance.
While nobody likes to reflect too much when they’ve backed losing selections, this should be part of your process, and you can sometimes learn plenty from the mistakes you’ve made along the way. You might also be able to detect a pattern with your winning and losing bets.
For example, you might enjoy a football accumulator bet on full-time results, but reviewing your bets may reveal that your profits are coming from the both teams to score market.
We recommend a weekly or monthly review to inform future bets.
No. 4: Look For Value
You might hear betting tipsters or pundits talk about landing the value as part of their football betting strategy. But what exactly is value, and how can it be found?
Quite simply, it’s when the betting odds are too long based on the probability of a selection winning.
For example, if a football team has even odds, this implies a 50% probability that this side will win the game. If you deem a team's chances of beating their opponent are greater than 50%, this could be considered a value proposition based on the available odds.
Even though “value” is subjective, successful bettors devise football betting systems in which they create their own probabilities and prices before matching them with the betting odds for specific games.
You may follow a lesser-known league or competition that the betting sites aren't entirely on top of, or you've gained an edge by betting in-play while attending a match.
The best football betting strategy for you will depend on where you find an edge.
Value can also be found through in-depth statistical analysis. Sometimes, it’s worth looking past the full-time result market and exploring less-popular alternatives in your search for value.
No. 5: Pay Attention to Price Movement
Money talks in all walks of life, including online football betting.
In the lead-up to a match, it’s pretty standard to find lots of odds movement as bets are placed, particularly with the 1x2 betting market.
It’s worth paying attention to price movements and determining why a team’s odds are shortening or on the drift.
The answer can sometimes be found when pieces of team news emerge before the starting 11s for a match have been announced. Understand the rumoured and confirmed line-ups for each game and how this affects the overall probability of either team winning. A significant player could be injured, or a manager may decide to rest players, causing the odds to lengthen.
You can try to anticipate price movements by following trusted sources of team news on social media and elsewhere online.
No. 6: Try Lower Leagues & Lesser-Known Competitions
Knowledge of lesser-known competitions can be a significant weapon in your betting arsenal.
Let's say, for example, you follow a team in Scottish League Two or the National League North in England. If you're fanatical about a side in one of these leagues and regularly attend games, there's a decent chance you'll know something the oddsmakers don't.
The betting sites aren't known for getting odds wrong, but with most money placed on top-tier competitions, they typically devote less attention to less-scrutinised leagues. This is where the informed bettor can take advantage.
Knowledge about team form, injuries, and playing conditions in these leagues can help assess the prices. However, this requires real research and a willingness to delve into less-charted territory.
However, the potential rewards make it a worthwhile strategy to consider if you want to diversify your bets and gain an edge.
No. 7: Take Advantage of Online Betting Promotions
Online betting promotions are a crucial component of a complete football betting system.
Depending on your region, betting sites often offer free bets, bonus bets, or other promos, especially during major football events. These offers can provide additional value to your bets, increasing potential profits or offering risk-free opportunities. To effectively use promotions, you must stay informed.
It’s also important to use promotions strategically. For instance, you might use free bets to back a long-odds selection you fancy, but you wouldn't usually want to risk your money.
Remember that you can sign up with several betting sites and take advantage of numerous offers. Having a choice between a few other betting sites also helps with our next tip.
No. 8: Shop Around For The Best Odds
We all shop around for value in most areas of our daily lives, and football betting should be no different. You'll need accounts with multiple sites and be prepared to compare odds for each bet you place.
Odds can vary significantly between betting sites, especially when backing a long shot. Use our football betting odds pages to compare quickly, making you more profitable than a bettor who only bets with one firm. Sometimes, one betting site is either slow to change its prices accordingly or wants to take on a specific side.
Remember, even slight differences in odds add up significantly over time, so securing the best available price is crucial to long-term profitability.
In-Play Football Betting Strategy
Live football betting has become hugely popular in recent years, with bettors enjoying the chance to bet on live games as they are taking place. In-play betting allows the armchair bettor to consider the opening tactical setups and momentum before betting.
As a football match takes place over 90 minutes, it’s a sport that lends itself incredibly well to in-play betting. The markets may suspend occasionally, which means you can’t bet immediately. However, this is for rare moments in the game, like a penalty kick, a possible VAR review, or a red-card scenario.
Sports like American football, basketball, and tennis, with several mini-breaks in match play, are also perfectly set up for in-play betting options. There is more time to consider wagers while the players are on a timeout or a natural break in action.
Football is fast-paced, watched worldwide, and has multiple markets that all work for in-play betting.
Here we explain more so you know precisely what in-play betting entails and how to use it.
How Do I Bet In-Play On Football?
In-play betting works in the same way as betting using a pre-match football betting market. The only difference is that the odds are live and frequently refreshed, so you might find that the 3.50 you want to back has suddenly changed to 3.00 or 4.00. Always be aware of the potential for prices to change!
Most of our recommended sites have the "In-Play" section prominently displayed on the homepage. It will show the football matches with live markets available right now.
You can guarantee that live odds will be available for popular leagues like the English Premier League, Italy's Serie A, and the Champions League. As with pre-match football betting, you can still bet on the 1X2 market, Next Team to Score, Next Goalscorer, and Half-Time Score.
Why Should I Use In-Play Betting for Football?
Several betting sites now report that in-play betting accounts for the majority of betting volume on popular football games, especially those broadcast live on TV, such as Sunday afternoon or Monday night matchups.
The biggest attraction of football in-play betting is the capacity for assessment. Since you can watch how a team is playing, you’re better informed when you live bet than if you bet before the match began. In-play betting also allows users to change their judgment intelligently, react to the game's momentum, and have more control over the decisions they make and when.
Top football betting sites live stream games online directly to your device, providing up-to-date statistics and information to help you judge how much value the odds represent.
It is possible to win with several bets during one 90-minute football game. As each in-play market settles, another will appear to reflect the new circumstances of the game.
In a 2-2 draw, “Next Goalscorer” will open, settle, and open again each time a goal is scored. This allows you to effectively take a chance at backing the player who scores four times in one game. As the game draws closer to a conclusion, these markets can get very volatile. Five minutes to go is not enough time for another goal, even if you are Harry Kane or Mo Salah, and the odds will reflect this.
Cash out will also be available, meaning you can end your bet early and close out for a profit if the odds are in your favor, before the market is settled.
How Can I Make Winning Football In-Play Bets?
We advise placing bets only on what you can afford. Bets should enhance your enjoyment, not become more important than watching high-level competition.
If you strike several in-play bets on a football match, it’s unlikely that you will win with all of those wagers. Football is a fast-paced and highly variable game where the bottom teams can beat the best teams, and that's why it is so loved worldwide.
When determining the outcome at the full-time whistle, remember that matches are just one mistake or one moment away from being impossible to predict.
An in-play betting strategy to consider is to watch the opening exchanges of a football match before deciding to place a bet. If you bet immediately after kick-off, you might snap up the pre-match odds, which traditionally offer slightly better value before the game starts.
Even just watching for 15 to 20 minutes can be worthwhile. Make mental notes of what’s happening in the game. This might include which team looks the most dominant, the players who look the most likely to score, and the overall strategy for both teams.
Watch in-play markets and changing odds to understand how online betting traders react to gameplay. The skill is identifying when it’s the right time to play a specific market. Can you hold out until the last 10 minutes and bank on a decisive late goal? It can pay off if you’re correct (and lucky).
When is the Best Time to Bet In-Play on Football?
There is no right or wrong time to place a live in-play bet. It is all about identifying value opportunities as they come along. The key element is determining a price you think is too high compared to how you regard the situation.
Half-time provides a 15-minute window to reflect on what you have seen in the first 45 minutes. There is ample time then to decide based on the match action.
Big prices can be available during in-play betting on football. Some teams may go two goals down early in a game, and it would be long odds to win the match from there. These games can sometimes turn full circle, so don’t let a big price put you off if that is what you think, but do be sure to know exactly what is happening in that game before getting involved.
The score is the first factor to consider, but has the primary striker or the goalkeeper been subbed out? Has there been a bad injury? Did your team miss a penalty? There is no substitute for watching the game if you are betting in-play, whatever you might think of a price on the screen in front of you.
Less is often more when it comes to the volume of in-play bets placed, so be selective, considering that there is an oddsmaker margin factored into every football betting market. These are higher with in-play betting markets, as you would expect given the pace and volatility involved in offering them.
Advanced Football Betting Strategies
Anyone can wager on their football team; it takes little analysis or strategy. However, it doesn’t make financial sense throughout a season to blindly back your preferred team simply because they’re playing. Instead, try to get to grips with the concept of value.
You can work out a team’s value for any given match by following this method:
- Estimate, as a percentage, what you think the chances of a team winning are.
- Find the best decimal price for that team to win (decimals are easier than fractions for this).
- Multiply the percentage you’ve estimated by the decimal price.
- Any result of 1.00 or greater means the team has value, and you should consider a bet.
Calculate Estimated Value
Use an implied probability calculator to convert “fair” odds to the implied probability of a betting market. Then, you can consider previous match performances, team trends, and individual player statistics to determine if that probability feels accurate.
Although finding the perfect bet (i.e., the one with the most value) should always be the goal, you need to know where to look and, importantly, what you’re looking for. You can use an advanced football betting strategy called the Poisson distribution, which estimates goal probabilities based on past performance, ideal for advanced bettors seeking an edge. It quantifies how likely random occurrences are over a fixed amount of time.
Before you do this, you must know a team’s attack and defense strengths.
- To determine a team’s attack rating, you must establish the average number of goals scored per team per game (home and away).
- To find the averages, you divide the number of goals scored (home) by the number of games in a season. Do the same thing to see the away goals average.
- To work out the defence strength, you take the above equations and change goals scored to goals conceded.
When you’ve completed these equations, you should have four numbers:
- Attack Strength Home
- Attack Strength Away
- Defence Strength Home
- Defence Strength Away
Now you can start to determine how strong a team is in relation to the league average. Once you’ve got the home team’s attack strength, you go through the same process to determine the away team’s defence strength.
At this point, you’ll have two numbers. To get a final value, you can multiply these two numbers by the season average.
There will be other mitigating factors around the game that you can apply to the maths to help your final judgement on the game, such as injuries and current form.
Taking a longer-term approach to your football betting and identifying “value” betting opportunities will give you a much stronger chance of securing a profit than betting to win every time.
Find Value in Scorecasts/Wincasts
Scorecast and wincast bets combine outcomes and offer higher payouts—but they come with risk. In particular, both require you to predict goal scorers correctly. Therefore, it’s essential to research which players have been scoring goals and the frequency with which they can do so.
This includes knowing which players are on penalty duties, and the same applies to free-kick takers. Knowing these players gives a player a stronger chance of scoring his team’s opening goal.
Lay Betting
“Laying” has become a particularly prominent form of advanced football betting. Using this strategy, you no longer bet on one side to win; instead, a lay bet is made against an outcome. So, for example, if you were to lay a team, you would effectively be backing that team to lose or draw.
Laying football teams with little chance of winning will build up a good bank over time (patience is required). Similarly, if you have a line on a particular match-up, you could see a high return by laying the favorites.
