Men's Downhill Skiing Odds: How Should You Bet On Canada's Entries?
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The highly anticipated Olympic Men’s Downhill will begin tonight on a new course named The Rock and amid significant controversy arising from the cancellation of the third training run because of high winds that gusted more than 30 MPH.
The Men’s Downhill is the marquee event on the first day of Olympic medals and we'll look at the sports betting opportunities overall and for Canada's entries.
After three of the 53 participants got their third and final training session completed, the organizers decided to cancel the remaining runs for safety.
“Due to the present weather situation with high winds and no window in the forecast for decreasing winds, in the best interest of safety, the jury together with the organisers have decided to cancel today’s (training run),” the Olympics said in a statement.
So, with just two training runs that featured many skiers missing one or more of the 40 gates, high-end skier speeds that exceeded 85 MPH at the third speed trap, and The Rock being one of the steepest courses ever to hold an Olympic event, danger and safety will be the words of the day.
Norways’ Aleksander Aamodt Kilde, the leader in the World Cup, was the third and final skier to take on The Rock. The first two were 2014 gold medal winners, Austria’s Matthias Mayer and Italy’s Christof Innerhofer.
All three could be heard discussing the difficulty of the course because of the wind at the finishing area. Whether that was part of the decision by the four-person jury to cancel the remaining training runs is unknown.
What is known is that many of the World’s best skiers were extremely upset that the training run was canceled and there was no effort to try and wait for better conditions later in the day.
How the Training Runs Turned Out
Kilde posted the fastest time of 1:43.72 in the second training run. My initial wager in this event is on Italy’s Dominik Paris, who posted the fifth-fastest run at 1:44.19, which trails Kilde by 0.47 seconds. The co-favorite on the odds betting boards, Sweden’s Beat Feuz, was 10th, posting a time of 1:44.30, which trails Kilde by 0.58 seconds. There are 32 skiers within 0.98 seconds and 18 skiers within 0.30 seconds of Kilde’s run.
There are five speed traps and then the finish line. The key part of this course is between the third and fourth intervals (speed traps) and the medal winners are likely to be the fastest through this portion of the course.
This interval is not the fastest based on speed, but does require a skier to be highly efficient in navigating the gates. Even a modest few meters off the desired line will determine who is standing on the podium.
Kilde was ninth fastest with a time of 14.55 seconds, but 24th in speed at 120.69 KPH through the fourth interval. That reflects Kilde's elite precision and why he sits on top of the World Cup Standings.
Canada’s Broderick Thompson Posts Excellent Second Training Run
Broderick Thompson had an excellent free-flowing second training run, posting the third-fastest time at 1:42.92, just 0.20 seconds behind Kilde.
He matched Kilde’s fourth interval time of 14.55 seconds and was 12th in speed at 122.40 KPH. He was the only skier in the top-10 fastest times through the five intervals and let off the gas during the final stretch to the finish line.
He was third fastest through the first interval with a time of 15.66 seconds and 26th in speed at 114.27 KPH.
He was first overall through the first two intervals with a combined time of 32.22 seconds, then sixth through the third interval with an overall time of 50.37 seconds, third-best through the fourth interval with a time of 1:10.04, best through the fifth interval with a time of 1:24.59 seconds, and then third overall at the finish.
Canada’s James Crawford Had a Solid Second Training Run
Fellow Canadian James Crawford posted the 11th fastest run in the second training session with a time of 1:44.31, trailing Kilde by 0.59 seconds.
He was fastest through the third and fourth intervals before missing a gate. Still, he was taking the race to the edges of a potential crash and will be loaded with confidence tonight.
Canada’s Trevor Philp Completed an Effortless Second Run
Trevor Philp ran the 41st fastest time and did not miss any gates.
Philp has plenty of upside heading into tonight’s event and was consistent through every interval, ranking between 41 and 45. A Top-10 finish is possible for Philp with a clean and precise run.
Updated Odds After Training Runs
| Skiier | Country | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksander A. Kilde | Norway | +200 |
| Beat Feuz | Switzerland | +350 |
| Matthias Mayer | Austria | +700 |
| Marco Odermatt | Switzerland | +800 |
| Vincent Kriechmayr | Austria | +800 |
| Daminik Paris | Italy | +1000 |
| Johan Clarey | France | +2000 |
| Daniel Hemetsberger | Austria | +2500 |
| Christof Innerhofer | Italy | +2500 |
| Niels Hintermann | Switzerland | +2500 |
| James Crawford | Canada | +3300 |
| Bryce Bennett | United States | +4000 |
| Max Franz | Austria | +5000 |
| Romed Baumann | Germany | +5000 |
| Otmar Striedinger | Austria | +6600 |
| Travis Ganong | United States | +8000 |
| Kjetil Jansrud | Norway | +10000 |
| Matteo Marsaglia | Italy | +20000 |
| Dominik Schwaiger | Germany | +20000 |
| Blaise Giezendanner | France | +20000 |
| The Field | +1600 |
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook
Men's Skiing Odds Before Training Runs
| Skiier | Country | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksander A. Kilde | Norway | +300 |
| Beat Feuz | Switzerland | +300 |
| Matthias Mayer | Austria | +600 |
| Marco Odermatt | Switzerland | +600 |
| Daminik Paris | Italy | +1000 |
| Vincent Kriechmayr | Austria | +2000 |
| Johan Clarey | France | +2000 |
| Daniel Hemetsberger | Austria | +2000 |
| Christof Innerhofer | Italy | +3300 |
| Niels Hintermann | Switzerland | +4000 |
| Bryce Bennett | United States | +4000 |
| Kjetil Jansrud | Norway | +4000 |
| Max Franz | Austria | +5000 |
| Travis Ganong | United States | +6600 |
| Otmar Striedinger | Austria | +6600 |
| Romed Baumann | Germany | +6600 |
| Blaise Giezendanner | France | +8000 |
| James Crawford | Canada | +8000 |
| Matteo Marsaglia | Italy | +10000 |
| Dominik Schwaiger | Germany | +15000 |
| The Field | +2200 |
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook
How We'll Bet on Canada's Skiiers
Crawford has made the biggest move on the odds board, moving from +8000 to +3300 and I agree with the market movement and I will wager 1.0 unit on him to win the Gold Medal.The field has moved from +2200 to +1600 and reflects the known dangers of this course, bringing the long shots into play.
I like wagering 1.0 units on the field at +1600. These two wagers are in addition to the 1-unit wager I made on Dominik Paris at +1000.
I was quite impressed with the runs completed by Canadiens Crawford and Thompson and will put 0.5 units on each of them to medal at +800 and +2000. The likelihood that both are standing on the podium is remote, but either one has the talent and potential to pull it off.
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