Toronto Maple Leafs Hope to Extend Lead on Tampa Bay Before Coming Home
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Toronto Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said it best, after his team had just scored a 4-3 overtime win in Game 3 of their opening round best-of-seven series against the Tampa Bay Lightning, to take a 2-1 lead.
That was a game the Leafs had no business winning. Territorially Tampa had the big edge. The story was how they managed to stay in a game in which they were outshot 39-27, were clearly outchanced, but got key saves from their goalie, Ilya Samsonov, when they most needed them. Samsonov who struggled out of the gate, had 36 saves last night, and a .923 save percentage. Moneypuck.com had the Leafs at 28.2 per cent on their “Deserve to Win O’Meter”.
Maple Leafs Won Game 3 Despite Being Outplayed
Despite being outplayed, the Leafs won ugly on a knuckleball point shot by Morgan Rielly that somehow snuck past a screened Andrei Vasilevskiy’s right shoulder at 19:15 of the first overtime period.
Keefe said later his team likely would not have won a playoff game like that in the recent past. Ugly, outplayed for most of it, but somehow they grind it out and get a bounce? Most telling were the hit stats – the Leafs had 62 of those in Game 3, outhitting the Lightning (who had 61). When in the recent past have you seen a Leafs’ team out hit an opponent like that?
Like we have said, if this organization is going to bust out of a decades-long malaise of playoffs ineptitude - they haven’t won a playoff series since 2004, and of course, haven’t won a league championship since 1967 – and the monstrous mental hurdles in a hockey-mad market that come with that, it was going to come down to performances from individuals not accustomed to the unique pressures of playing here. This pressure is compounded every year by each playoff disappointment.
The team called on Ryan O’Reilly, with his playoff and championship pedigree, acquired at the trade deadline from the St. Louis Blues, to step up, lead this young group, and smash through those mental hurdles that have held them back. Boy did he do that.
O’Reilly took the punishment by standing in front of Vasilevskiy, slapping in a rebound off a William Nylander shot, with the Leafs’ goalie out and just one minute on the clock, to tie it. Then he blocked a key shot in his own zone with seconds left in regulation time. Then he won the draw in the Tampa zone, dropping the puck back to Rielly for the winner.
What's the Outlook for Toronto in Game 4 vs. Tampa Bay?
Futures for Game 4, also in Tampa, are getting interesting. NorthStar Bets has the Spread at Leafs -1.5 (+220), Tampa +1.5 (-278).
They have the Moneyline with the Leafs as slight favourites at -114, Tampa -107. The O/U is 6.5 (-108 on the Over, -113 on the Under). We hit on the Over for Game 3, which was 6.5, but we sense a Tampa comeback for Monday. This series is going to go seven, a real slugfest that will only leave the winner battered and bruised for the second round.
Tampa played lights out in Game 3 and has too much pedigree to go down 3-1 in the series, which then heads back to Toronto for Thursday. We like the Lightning to cover the Spread Monday. They have playoff calluses and have bounced back so many times in playoffs past. Steven Stamkos has yet to score – that can’t last. And look for a big bounceback from Vasilevskiy. He wasn’t good in Game 3 - .852 save percentage. They need to score in the first period, get a frenzied crowd even more into it, then bring in the physical side of their game.
Everyone is talking about that Stamkos-Auston Matthews fight, but that was pure Stamkos hockey IQ at play – take the Leafs’ best player off the ice by picking a fight with him in a scrum when you already knew your team was getting a penalty in a tight game after Rielly’s hit that injured Brayden Point. That’s what we are talking about with the Lightning. Most of these guys have PhDs in hockey playoff acumen.
The knuckleball in all this is the health of all-star defenceman Victor Hedman, who played last night (and was a +1) but is injured.
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