Where Do American League East World Series Betting Odds Sit After Offeason Moves?
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Major league baseball spring training begins in a little more than six weeks. Let that sit for a few seconds, as waves of polar vortexes sweep over Canada and much of the U.S.
For more of us, visions of Cactus League games start swimming in our heads. This means that despite some roster tinkering, most of the off-season heavy lifting has been done.
The Toronto Blue Jays have done much more than tinker with the roster. They’ve made significant moves, especially improving their outfield defence while adding more left-handed bats to their roster, much needed coming out of last season.
How have moves changed the AL East?
In the American East, many who cover the sport daily say it’s the toughest division in baseball – often combining for the most wins compared to all the other divisions, highest win percentages.
When these teams – the Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays – battle against each other, it’s real attrition. Look at last year’s standings – four of the five teams were over .500, and the Red Sox were almost there, at .481.
According to World Series futures for the AL East, the Yankees have been rising, followed by the Jays.
FanDuel World Series betting odds today have the Jays at 16.00, the Yankees at 7.50 (the Astros are on top at 7.00). Tampa, Baltimore and Boston follow.
Here is how some Canadian sportsbooks see the division.
So is all this justified, as spring training approaches, in our view?
New York Yankees (99-63, .611)
Led by re-signing Aaron Judge for nine years, $360 million, the Yankees have been busy. Judge set the American League records for home runs, cementing himself as the best hitter in baseball, with a .311 average, 62 HRs and 131 RBIs, and a 10.6 WAR.
Still, it’s the starting rotation where they made some hay – Carlos Rodon signing for six years, $162 million, was the headliner. Last year he made 31 starts, which is not something to be dismissed considering his history of injuries, including elbow and shoulder surgery issues. Then they brought back Tommy Kahnle at two years, $11.5 million, with strikeout heat and a great changeup, slotting into the middle of New York’s bullpen quite nicely.
Kahnle struck out 88 in 61 1/3 innings with a 3.67 ERA in 2019, his last full season with the Yankees. He pitched just 22 2/3 innings last season with the Dodgers, after returning from elbow surgery, and had a 2.84 ERA. Is he back?
There was the news the other day that SP Frankie Montas could miss the first month because of shoulder inflammation – is that the first crack in the façade?
Toronto Blue Jays (92-70, .568)
Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are the headline-making departures. Hernandez was traded to the Mariners, and the significant gap in arbitration is an indication of the Jays’ thinking there – Hernandez filed at $16 million, and Seattle is at $14.3 million.
Gurriel Jr. was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks with left-handed outfield/catcher Daulton Varsho returning to the Jays — .235 average, 27 homers and 74 RBIs last year, with elite defence. The Jays avoided arbitration with Varsho signing at $3.05 million. The downside of that deal might be the Jays giving up stud prospect Gabriel Moreno, but we’ll see how Varsho and his significant upside performs in Toronto. Varsho had a 4.6 WAR in 2022.
Lots of online chatter in Toronto about the future of SS Bo Bichette – heading to arbitration with a sizable split (the team offered $5M, and he wants $7.5M). Would Bichette even sign in Toronto long-term?
Tampa Bay Rays (86-76, .531)
As usual with the Rays, the storyline is more on contract dumps than signings, one of those being Kevin Kiermaier, who signed with the Jays (George Springer moves to RF). Still, every year they are in the race, with a farm system constantly spitting out impact players.
Kiermaier was injured a lot, and the Rays declined his $13 million option. Then the Rays traded 1B Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates. SP Corey Kluber, at $8 million a year, with a 4.34 ERA, was let go.
They’re placing a lot of Kiermaier’s replacement in CF Jose Siri — .213, 7 HRs, 24 RBIs, .607 OPS last season. The Rays have a history of seeing and developing underlying talents in players, so Siri is a player to keep an eye on.
The big free agent was SP Zach Eflin – 3 years, $40M, the biggest free agent payout in franchise history in terms of guaranteed total. Last year with the Phillies Eflin was 3-5, 4.04 ERA, 65 SOs over 75.2 IP.
In Tampa, it all starts with the strength of their rotation – Eflin, with Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs.
Baltimore Orioles (83-79, .512)
Noteworthy additions for the Orioles are on the pitching staff: RHPs Kyle Gibson and Mychal Givens. With the departure of John Means to the Kansas City Royals as a free agent, the O's addressed their biggest need here.
With the Phillies last year, Gibson, a 10-year vet, went 10-8, 5.05 ERA, 144 Ks in 167 IP. That’s heavy lifting, and he covers off Means’ departure. Givens was with the Cubs and Mets last year and bolsters a bullpen that was among the strongest in MLB last season, especially in late-inning situations. But they also moved one of their top bullpen arms last year in Jorge Lopez (traded to the Twins last August), so we’ll have to see if their pen dominates like 2022.
James McCann was a nice pickup at catcher, to back up Adley Rutschman. McCann was an All-Star in 2019. The Orioles are seemingly in rebuilding mode still, but when is a rebuild considered over?
Boston Red Sox (78-84, .481)
Kluber signed with the Red Sox, to bolster their starting rotation. Signing 3B Justin Turner to a 2-year, $21.7M free agent deal, and bringing in relief pitcher Kenley Jansen at two years, $32M, were two big off-season moves, while watching Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi walk out the door. J.D. Martinez is also gone as well.
Oh, and they signed one of Japan’s best hitters, OF Masataka Yoshida, to a $100m contract. There’s a lot of debate in Boston about whether they overpaid there. And what’s the health of SP Chris Sale?
The good news in Boston is several promising rookies and prospects are knocking at the door. Gone are the days when Boston competed with the Yankees and Dodgers in terms of free-agent spending, it seems. Now improvement will come more from within. According to Spotrac, team payroll is projected to be $163M.
Getting Rafael Devers inked to a long-term deal was a nice piece of business, though, at 10 years, $313.5M, starting in 2024.
Lots of question marks in Boston. Might be a long season for them.
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