South Africa v India Second T20I: Latest Odds & Analysis

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South Africa v India Second T20I: Latest Odds & Analysis

South Africa v India predictions: 

When: Sunday 10 December, 8:30pm IST 

Where: St George’s Park, Gqeberha

Watch: Star Sports, Hotstar (Supersport in South Africa)

Best Odds: South Africa 2.1, India 1.72

They looked to be by far the best two nations of the recent ODI World Cup until Australia showed up, and after a false start due to wet weather in Durban, now South Africa and India can hopefully get a start on this three-game T20I series ahead of the World Cup of 2024.

Understandably, cricket betting sites have not changed their prices from the opening match, in which a coin toss could not even take place. The teams were neck and neck in early markets before India’s price firmed as the South Africans lost some key players due to both injury and workload management.

There’s a bit of experimentation in the Proteas selection, which always makes for interesting viewing, whilst the Indians too are missing a couple of walk-up starters but are by no means fiddling around with their squad seven months out from a World Cup.

The potential for evening showers on the coastal city of Gqeberha hopefully won’t wipe this game out completely, but the potential for reduced overs does make taking ‘unders’ on some run lines all the more appealing.


The Numbers That Matter

  • India won seven of their last nine away T20I series
  • 13 of the last 18 completed T20Is in South Africa (involving any team) had successful run chases
  • Aiden Markram top scored in four of South Africa’s last seven T20I innings not involving Quinton de Kock 
  • Kuldeep Yadav to Aiden Markram in internationals: 3-16

India windia! 

Those of you who snapped up 1.9 or thereabouts last week for India to go 1-0 up in the series, like we did, were cruelly denied by the Durban weather the opportunity to get full value out of the price. 

But despite the odds coming in ahead of the game, and remaining as they are now, we think it’s still worth backing India based on the strength of their depth compared with that of the South Africans.

It speaks volumes about the formidable nature of their Test and ODI teams that T20 can even be considered their worst format despite winning ten of their last 12 T20Is, more often than not missing first choice players.

They’ll once again not be at 100%, with Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Shami and KL Rahul all focusing on the upcoming Test series, but the team has been strengthened with the likes of Shubman Gill, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav and Mohammed Siraj.

South Africa are still without Anrich Nortje and have lost Lungi Ngidi also to injury, in addition to their decisions to rest Temba Bavuma and Kagiso Rabada for the white ball games. Quinton de Kock has not retired from the T20I setup but made himself unavailable to fulfil his Big Bash League commitments. 

Gerald Coetzee and Marco Jansen will also be released after the first two games to play a round of red ball domestic cricket ahead of the Tests, but South Africa may have to blood new talent immediately. 

India, on the other hand, are fielding a squad with plenty of T20 success under their belts in recent months, from the Asian Games gold medal to the 4-1 home thrashing of Australia. 

Take the 1.73 while you can - you certainly won’t be getting it for the third T20I when South Africa’s squad becomes even weaker.

Prediction: India to win - 1.72 @ Bet365

Backing against Breetzke brilliance

Quinton de Kock’s unavailability has opened the door for a new face - well, new of sorts. 

Wicketkeeper Matthew Breetzke made his international debut at this very venue (Durban’s Kingsmead) against Australia in September, batting at number three.

He registered a score of only 5 on that occasion, but it was his temperament and his approach to the innings that impressed his head coach Rob Walter, who hailed his “courage … that sometimes means more than the actual result”.

Indeed, Breetzke assessed himself recently as the type of batter who will always “try to put the first foot forward” if the conditions suit, and claims not to be afraid of letting low scores get in the way of his processes.

That’s just as well, because his returns in recent months have been quite poor. 

Breetzke’s last eight innings across all white ball formats (T10 included) returned seven single digit scores, one of them not out. 

It was his work in the SA20 and domestic T20 before that, where he cleared 25+ runs seven out of ten times (but going on beyond 30 runs only three times), that put his name up in lights.

Against the calibre of bowling such as Siraj, Kuldeep and Jadeja, and without recent runs to his name, we’re willing to take him on.

Prediction: Matthew Breetzke under 18.5 runs - 1.83 @ Bet365

Hoping for no ‘Gilliance’ from Shubman either

One individual reflection of India’s inability to convert their strong Test and 50-over ability into the shortest international format is opening prodigy Shubman Gill.

There’s no questioning his dominance both in the IPL and in the other two international formats, but for whatever reason Gill just hasn’t yet been able to make it happen on the T20I arena.

After recovering from dengue fever, he had a mixed but overall successful World Cup with four half-centuries and a further five scores of 26 or less.

He now has had 11 cracks at the T20I format for eight scores of 11 or less, and the three exceptions have all come in the third or fourth game of a bilateral series. 

In the opening game of the three bilateral series in which he took part, his returns were 7, 7 and 3.

27.5 runs is a big line for any T20I player let alone one who has struggled in the format over the space of eight months!

Prediction: Shubman Gill under 27.5 runs - 1.83 @ Bet365

Updated by GDC - Icon - Black - Info

Aaron Murphy

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