BAFTA TV Awards Odds 2026: Adolescence To Continue Awards Season Domination
It's been just over a year since Netflix miniseries Adolescence hit our screens, and the show continues to dominate awards ceremonies and markets on betting sites.
Adolescence leads the nominations at this year's BAFTA TV Awards with 11, and the hard-hitting show looks likely to taste plenty of success once again.
The series is 2/5 favourite to win the Limited Drama accolade at the TV BAFTAs, and it would be a huge shock if it was defeated.
But will Adolescence bring home personal glory for its stars, too?
BAFTA TV Awards 2026 Odds: Limited Drama
Drama | Odds | Probability |
Adolescence | 2/5 | 71.4% |
Trespasses | 2/1 | 33.3% |
I Fought The Law | 5/2 | 28.6% |
What It Feels Like For A Girl | 4/1 | 20% |
Graham And Cooper To Win Again
Adolescence's Stephen Graham saw off competition from the likes of Colin Farrell and Jake Gyllenhaal to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie at last year's Primetime Emmy Awards.
The likes of Jude Law, Jacob Elordi and Charlie Hunnam also suffered the same Graham-shaped fate at this year's Golden Globes.
He triumphed in the Best Male Actor category, and he looks like doing the same again at this year's TV BAFTAs.
Graham is just 1/4 on betting apps to see off The Death of Bunny Munro's Matt Smith (15/8) and Lockerbie: A Search for Truth star Colin Firth (2/1), among others.
BAFTA TV Awards 2026 Odds: Leading Actor
Actor | Drama | Odds | Probability |
Stephen Graham | Adolescence | 1/4 | 80% |
Matt Smith | The Death Of Bunny Munro | 15/8 | 34.8% |
Colin Firth | Lockerbie: A Search For Truth | 2/1 | 33.3% |
James Nelson-Joyce | This City Is Ours | 5/2 | 28.6% |
Taron Egerton | Smoke | 3/1 | 25% |
Ellis Howard | What It Feels Like For A Girl | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Following his Emmys and Globes success, as well as a Best Actor trophy at the Critics Choice Awards, it would be a huge surprise if Graham didn't secure another major gong at this year's TV BAFTAs.
His on-screen son, Owen Cooper, has made awards show history in recent months, including becoming the youngest male actor ever to win a Primetime Emmy, aged just 15, and, at 16, he became the youngest-ever winner of the Supporting Actor award at this year's Golden Globes.
It would be a major shock if Cooper missed out on the same accolade at this year's Critics ' TV BAFTAs, and he is just 1/5 to take home the gong.
BAFTA TV Awards 2026 Odds: Supporting Actor
Actor | Drama | Odds | Probability |
Owen Cooper | Adolescence | 1/5 | 83.3% |
Paddy Considine | MobLand | 3/1 | 25% |
Ashley Walters | Adolescence | 7/2 | 22.2% |
Rafael Mathe | The Death Of Bunny Munro | 4/1 | 20% |
Fehinti Balogun | Down Cemetery Road | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Joshua McGuire | The Gold | 6/1 | 14.3% |
Erin To Make BAFTAs History?
Adolescence will not have a winner in the Leading Actress category, though, because it doesn't have a nod.
But Erin Doherty - who plays forensic psychologist Briony Ariston in the series - is up for a Leading Actress accolade for another show - A Thousand Blows.
Sadly for Erin, she comes up against a British acting powerhouse in Sheridan Smith, who put in a probable BAFTA-winning performance as Ann Ming - a mother who successfully fought to overturn the double jeopardy law following her daughter's murder - in ITV's I Fought The Law.
BAFTA TV Awards 2026 Odds: Leading Actress
Actress | Drama | Odds | Probability |
Sheridan Smith | I Fought The Law | 8/13 | 61.9% |
Erin Doherty | A Thousand Blows | 15/8 | 34.8% |
Jodie Whittaker | Toxic Town | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Narges Rashidi | Prisoner 951 | 3/1 | 25% |
Aimee Lou Wood | Film Club | 4/1 | 20% |
Sian Brooke | Blue Lights | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Smith is 8/13 favourite to take home the Leading Actress prize, but if she does miss out, then 15/8 shot Doherty could reap the benefits.
Doherty could make BAFTA's history by winning both Leading Actress and Supporting Actress accolades for two different shows in the same year.
Aimee Lou Wood is also in contention for the same achievement after her Leading Actress nod for Film Club (4/1) and Supporting Actress nomination for The White Lotus (6/4).
If anyone is to achieve the incredible double feat, Doherty looks most likely to do so, because she is just 1/3 favourite to win this year's Supporting Actress prize over Wood, and her Adolescence co-star Christine Tremarco (5/2).
BAFTA TV Awards 2026 Odds: Supporting Actress
Actress | Drama | Odds | Probability |
Erin Doherty | Adolescence | 1/3 | 75% |
Aimee Lou Wood | The White Lotus | 6/4 | 40% |
Chyna McQueen | Get Millie Black | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Christine Tremarco | Adolescence | 5/2 | 28.6% |
Emilia Jones | Task | 3/1 | 25% |
Rose Ayling-Ellis | Reunion | 4/1 | 20% |
Traitors Fans To Remain Faithful?
But Adolescence may not have the TV BAFTAs entirely its own way.
One negative is that by the time this year's May 10 ceremony rolls around, the Netflix show will be nearly 14 months old, since it first dropped on March 13, 2025.
While this might not be a big concern for the BAFTA TV Awards jury, the public could vote for something more recent.
At this year's TV BAFTAs, the P&O Cruises Memorable Moment Award is the only prize voted for by members of the public, and this could be great news for The Celebrity Traitors bosses.
BAFTA TV Awards 2026 Odds: P&O Cruises Memorable Moment Award
Show | Moment | Odds | Probability |
The Celebrity Traitors | Alan Carr Wins | 10/11 | 52.4% |
Adolescence | Jamie Snaps | 11/10 | 47.6% |
Last One Laughing | Bob Mortimer's Speed Date | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Big Boys | Danny's Despair | 5/2 | 28.6% |
Blue Lights | Police Ambush Warning | 3/1 | 25% |
What It Feels Like For A Girl | Byron Leaves For Brighton | 4/1 | 20% |
The star-studded show's debut series was a huge success last year, culminating in comedian Alan Carr triumphing as a Traitor.
Like Adolescence, the show was a huge water-cooler topic across the nation.
The Celebrity Traitors also has nods in the Reality category, and host Claudia Winkleman is up for an Entertainment Performance accolade.
Chatty Man star Carr, revealing himself to be a Traitor in the season finale, is the 10/11 favourite to win this year's Memorable Moment Award at the TV BAFTAs, closely followed by a chilling moment in Adolescence.
A tense scene where Cooper's teenage killer character Jamie snaps at Doherty's psychologist alter-ego Briony is 11/10 second favourite to win the award, which is highly likely to go to one of these two shows.
* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.
Which show will win at the BAFTA TV Awards, and which actors/actresses will be celebrating at the end of the night? Let us know your thoughts below!
