BAFTA TV Awards 2024 Odds: Happy Valley And Succession Expected To Clean Up

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BAFTA TV Awards 2024 Odds: Happy Valley And Succession Expected To Clean Up

The nominations for the BAFTA TV Awards have been announced, and two shows look set to dominate according to their prices on betting sites

While The Crown leads the list of nods with eight, including a Leading Actor nomination for Dominic West, Happy Valley wasn't far behind with six, and HBO drama Succession has five. 

BBC drama Happy Valley, which stars Sarah Lancashire and James Norton, came to a conclusion in early 2023 with an epic third and final series.

While James was snubbed for a Leading Actor nod, the show is up for the coveted Drama Series prize and Sarah and co-star Siobhan Finneran also have actress nominations. 

Across the pond, HBO comedy-drama Succession also ended last year with a nail-biting final season, and the show looks set to nab several accolades at this year's TV BAFTAs. 

The winners will be announced on May 12th, when Rob Beckett and Romesh Ranganathan will co-host the ceremony.

Happy Days For BBC Show

The Happy Valley team look set to be elated on TV BAFTAs night, if some of the show's prices on betting apps are anything to go by. 

Happy Valley is 1/2 favourite to be crowned this year's best Drama Series, ahead of Apple TV+ rival Slow Horses. 

The Gary Oldman-led programme (2/1) would be a worthy winner in the category, but it will be tough to overcome the Happy Valley series finale, which culminated with a masterclass in acting from leading lady Sarah, who plays Sargeant Catherine Cawood in the drama. 

BAFTA TV Awards: Best Drama Series

ShowOdds
Probability
Happy Valley1/2
66.7%
Slow Horses2/1
33.3%
Top Boy3/1
25%
The Gold6/1
14.3%

If Slow Horses cannot cause an upset, then perhaps Netflix hit Top Boy can land the Drama Series prize. 

Like Happy Valley, Top Boy also aired its final series last year - and the show went out with a bang when the main men of the five seasons, Sully (Kane Robinson) and DuShane (Ashley Walters) both meet their makers.

At 3/1 it wouldn't be a huge shock if Top Boy landed the prize, but BBC's The Gold - a factual drama inspired by the true story of the 1983 Brink’s-Mat robbery - is a 6/1 outsider in the category. 

Happy Valley could have yet more success on the night, with Sarah just 1/2 to be named Leading Actress ahead of the likes of Best Interests star Sharon Horgan (2/1) and The Last of Us actress Bella Ramsey (5/2).

BAFTA TV Awards: Leading Actress

ActressOdds
Probability
Sarah Lancashire (Happy Valley)1/2
66.7%
Sharon Horgan (Best Interests)2/1
33.3%
Bella Ramsey (The Last Of Us)5/2
28.6%
Helena Bonham Carter (Nolly)4/1
20%
Anne Reid (The Sixth Commandment)6/1
14.3%
Anjana Vasan (Demon 79 Black Mirror)8/1
11.1%

Brian Set For Succession Success? 

One of the big shocks of the night, before the ceremony has even taken place, is that Happy Valley's James hasn't been nominated in the Leading Actor category for his eerie, yet brilliant, performance of villain Tommy Lee Royce.

With no Norton to contend with, Succession's leading man Brian Cox is the odds-on favourite to take home the gong.

BAFTA TV Awards: Leading Actor

ActorOdds
Probability
Brian Cox (Succession)1/3
75%
Steve Googan (The Reckoning)5/2
28.6%
Timothy Spall (The Sixth Commandment)3/1
25%
Dominic West (The Crown)5/1
16.7%
Paapa Essiedu (The Lazarus Project)6/1
14.3%
Kane Robinson (Top Boy)8/1
11.1%

Brian is 1/3 on specials betting sites to land the prize, while Steve Coogan is 5/2 second favourite to win the accolade for his creepy, but powerful portrayal of disgraced TV entertainer Jimmy Savile, one of the most notorious paedophiles and sex offenders in British criminal history.

While The Sixth Commandment's Timothy Spall (3/1) and The Crown's Dominic West (5/1) will both be hoping to beat Brian and Steve to the prize, the two shows could also lose out to Succession in the Supporting Actor category, with The Sixth Commandment's Éanna Hardwicke 4/1 and The Crown's Salim Daw 6/1.

BAFTA TV Awards: Supporting Actor

ActorOdds
Probability
Matthew MacFadyen (Succession)8/11
57.9%
Jack Lowden (Slow Horses)2/1
33.3%
Amit Shah (Happy Valley)3/1
25%
Eanna Hardwicke (The Sixth Commandment)4/1
20%
Salim Daw (The Crown)6/1
14.3%
Harris Dickinson (A Murder at the End of the World)8/1
11.1%

Matthew MacFadyen - who played Tom Wambsgans in the HBO drama - is 8/11 to take home the gong, with Slow Horses' Jack Lowden 2/1 second favourite.

Elizabeth To Be Crowned Winner? 

The Crown might have more success in the Supporting Actress category. 

Elizabeth Debicki is Evens favourite on new betting sites to win the prize for her portrayal of the late Princess Diana in seasons five and six of the fictional dramatisation of the Royal Family. 

BAFTA TV Awards: Supporting Actress

ActressOdds
Probability
Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)Evens
50%
Siobhan Finneran (Happy Hour)6/4
40%
Jasmine Jobson (Top Boy)2/1
33.3%
Lesley Manville (The Crown)4/1
20%
Harriet Walter (Succession)5/1
16.7%
Nico Parker (The Last Of Us)6/1
14.3%

But Elizabeth will face stiff competition from her Crown co-star and 4/1 chance Lesley Manville (Princess Margaret), as well as Happy Valley's Siobhan Finneran (6/4) and Top Boy's Jasmine Jobson (2/1).

In what looks set to be one of the closest-fought contests of the night, it would be no surprise if any of the six nominees, who are completed by Succession's Harriet Walter (5/1) and The Last of Us star Nico Parker (6/1), were crowned this year's Supporting Actress at the TV BAFTAs.

Even if Harriet doesn't land the award, Succession could still win the International award. 

The programme is 8/11 to do so, while The Bear - which stars Jeremy Allen White as award-winning chef Carmy Berzatto - is 11/8.

BAFTA TV Awards: International Award

ShowOdds
Probability
Succession8/11
57.9%
The Bear11/8
42.1%
The Last Of Us2/1
33.3%
Beef4/1
20%
Love & Death6/1
14.3%
Class Act8/1
11.1%

Should The Sixth Commandment miss out on the individual awards, the BBC drama could taste success in the Limited Drama category. 

BAFTA TV Awards: Limited Drama

ShowOdds
Probability
The Sixth CommandmentEvens
50%
The Long Shadow2/1
33.3%
Best Interests4/1
20%
Demon 79 (Black Mirror)6/1
14.3%

The show is Evens to win the prize, ahead of ITV's 2/1 chance The Long Shadow, while Loose Women and Men is 1/2 favourite to triumph in the Daytime category.

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James Leyfield

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