BAFTA TV Awards 2025 Odds: Mr Bates Vs The Post Office Set For First Class Night
Netflix drama Baby Reindeer leads the BAFTA TV Awards nominations with eight nods, but the show will face stiff competition from Mr Bates Vs The Post Office in several categories, according to the best betting sites.
Both programmes were arguably two of the most talked-about shows last year, and they continue to be in 2025.
Netflix had a huge hit with Baby Reindeer, a brutally honest account of comedian Richard Gadd's experience with an alleged stalker, who is known as Martha in the show.
BAFTA TV Awards 2025 Odds: Limited Drama
TV Show | Odds | Probability |
Mr Bates Vs The Post Office (ITV 1) | 8/11 | 57.9% |
Baby Reindeer (Netflix) | 5/4 | 44.4% |
One Day (Netflix) | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Lost Boys And Fairies (BBC 1) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
It went on to win Best Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film at this year's Golden Globe Awards and Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series at last year's Emmy Awards.
While Baby Reindeer has impressed awards panels across the pond, Mr Bates Vs The Post Office has had a huge impact in the UK.
The ITV drama told the extraordinary true story of the British Post Office scandal, in which hundreds of innocent sub-postmasters and postmistresses were wrongly convicted of theft, fraud and false accounting due to a defective IT system.
Following the four-part series airing, King Charles revoked former Post Office CEO Paula Vennells' CBE, after 1.2 million signed a petition calling for it to be withdrawn.
Victim compensation is still being sought, but Mr Bates Vs The Post Office's six TV BAFTA nods will help to keep the subject in the news.
The show won the Impact accolade at last year's National Television Awards and defeated Baby Reindeer in the New Drama category.
Mr Bates Vs The Post Office's ongoing impact in the real world means it is 8/11 favourite to repeat the feat in the Limited Drama category at this year's BAFTA TV Awards on May 11.
Baby Reindeer Takes On Mr Bates Vs The Post Office
Baby Reindeer isn't too far behind at 5/4 on betting apps, but it looks likely to miss out on a Limited Drama BAFTA.
However, show creator Gadd could get some BAFTA glory in the Leading Actor category.
Mr Bates Vs The Post Office's Toby Jones clinched the Drama Performance accolade at last year's NTAs, overcoming Baby Reindeer's Jessica Gunning, but he could lose out to Gadd at this year's BAFTA TV Awards.
BAFTA TV Awards 2025 Odds: Leading Actor
Actor | Network | Odds | Probability |
Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer) | Netflix | 10/11 | 52.4% |
Toby Jones (Mr Bates Vs The Post Office) | ITV1 | 11/10 | 47.6% |
David Tennant (Rivals) | Disney+ | 5/2 | 28.6% |
Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) | Apple TV+ | 3/1 | 25% |
Gadd clinched the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie prize at last year's Emmy Awards, where he also won Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie trophy.
He also received Best Actor nods at this year's Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAGs), but was defeated by The Penguin's Colin Farrell on both occasions.
Gadd is a narrow 10/11 favourite to overcome 11/10 second favourite Jones to the Leading Actor prize at this year's BAFTA TV Awards.
But the likes of Rivals star David Tennant, who is 5/2, and Slow Horses actor Gary Oldman (3/1) shouldn't be overlooked.
BAFTA TV Awards 2025 Odds: Leading Actress
Actress | Network | Odds | Probability |
Monica Dolan (Mr Bates Vs The Post Office) | ITV1 | 4/6 | 60% |
Anna Maxwell Martin (Until I Kill You) | ITV1 | 11/8 | 42.1% |
Billie Piper (Scoop) | Netflix | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Marisa Abela (Industry) | BBC 1 | 3/1 | 25% |
Lola Petticrew (Say Nothing) | Disney+ | 4/1 | 20% |
Sharon D Clarke (Mr Loverman) | BBC 1 | 6/1 | 14.3% |
While Mr Bates Vs The Post Office may miss out in the Leading Actor category, show star Monica Dolan is 4/6 favourite to clinch the Leading Actress gong at this year's TV BAFTAs.
However, it is by no means a foregone conclusion.
Anna Maxwell Martin is 11/8 for her performance of Delia Balmer in ITV's Until I Kill You, which was based on Balmer's autobiographical book Living with a Serial Killer.
Jessica Gunning For TV BAFTAs Glory
But it may not be long until the Baby Reindeer table is celebrating again, because the show has two chances of clinching the Supporting Actress accolade.
Jessica Gunning and Nava Mau, who played Teri in the show, both have nods in the category, but the former looks set to win the prize - and she is in red-hot form.
For her portrayal of Martha, Jessica won Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries or Television Film at this year's Golden Globes, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Miniseries or Television Movie at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
She also wonrover Outstanding Supporting Actress at last year's Emmy Awards.
BAFTA TV Awards 2025 Odds: Supporting Actress
Actress | Network | Odds | Probability |
Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer) | Netflix | 4/7 | 63.6% |
Maxine Peake (Say Nothing) | Disney+ | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Katherine Parkinson (Rivals) | Disney+ | 3/1 | 25% |
Monica Dolan (Sherwood) | BBC 1 | 7/2 | 22.2% |
Sue Johnston (Truelove) | Channel 4 | 4/1 | 20% |
Nava Mau (Baby Reindeer) | Netflix | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Will she add a Supporting Actress BAFTA to that list? Most probably.
Gunning is just 4/7 to do so, while Mau is a 5/1 outsider.
Disney+ also has a double chance of victory in this category thanks to nominations for Say Nothing star Maxine Peake and Rivals' Katherine Parkinson.
Peake is 2/1 and Parkinson is 3/1, while Mr Bates Vs The Post Office star Monica Dolan is 7/2 to win for another show - Sherwood.
BAFTA TV Awards 2025 Odds: Supporting Actor
Actor | Network | Odds | Probability |
Damian Lewis (Wolf Hall: The Mirror And The Light) | BBC 1 | Evens | 50% |
Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses) | Apple TV+ | 6/4 | 40% |
Ariyon Bakare (Mr Loverman) | BBC 1 | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Christopher Chung (Slow Horses) | Apple TV+ | 5/2 | 28.6% |
McKinley Belcher III (Eric) | Netflix | 3/1 | 25% |
In the Supporting Actor category, Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light actor Damian Lewis is the Evens favourite.
Jonathan Pryce, who plays River Cartwright's grandfather David in Slow Horses, is next in the running at 6/4.
Christopher Chung also plays a starring role as Roddy Ho in the same series and is 5/2 for the supporting actor accolade, just behind Ariyon Baker (2/1) from BBC 1's Mr Loverman.
Tidy Win For Gavin And Stacey?
There has been outrage among Gavin & Stacey fans that the sitcom's epic finale was snubbed for a nomination in the Scripted Comedy category, following its emotional last-ever episode on Christmas Day.
Alma's Not Normal, Brassic, G'wed, and Ludwig received nominations instead.
Gavin & Stacey star Ruth Jones has a nod in the Female Performance in a Comedy category, but her fellow show co-creator James Corden was overlooked for his role as Smithy.
BAFTA TV Awards 2025 Odds: Memorable Moment
TV Show | Moment | Odds | Probability |
Gavin & Stacey (BBC 1) | Smithy's Wedding: Mick Stands Up | 11/10 | 63.6% |
Mr Bates Vs The Post Office (ITV1) | Jo Hamilton Phones Horizon Helpline | 5/4 | 44.4% |
Strictly Come Dancing (BBC 1) | Chris McCausland And Diane Buswell Waltz To You'll Never Walk Alone | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Bridgerton (Netflix) | Colin Admits True Feelings For Penelope In The Carriage | 3/1 | 25% |
The Traitors (BBC 1) | 'Paul Isn't My Son...But Ross Is!' | 4/1 | 20% |
Rivals (Disney+)) | Rupert Campbell-Black And Sarah Stratton Caught Playing Naked Tennis | 5/1 | 16.7% |
However, if Ruth, who plays Nessa, doesn't win then Gavin & Stacey: The Finale still has another chance of TV BAFTAs success - in the Memorable Moment category.
There weren't many dry eyes in living rooms across the country on Christmas Day when Larry Lamb's Gavin & Stacey character Mick Shipman stood up at Smithy's wedding and told him he would be making a mistake if he married Sonia (Laura Aikman).
The finale became one of the most watched scripted TV shows of the century after more than 19 million people tuned in, and the emotional scene is just 11/10 to win the Memorable Moment prize at this year's TV BAFTAs.
However, Mr Bates Vs The Post Office will provide some stiff competition, and that could relegate Gavin & Stacey to second class.
The moment where Jo Hamilton phones the Horizon helpline is 5/4 second favourite to win the BAFTA.
Last year's Strictly Come Dancing winner Chris McCausland waltzing to You'll Never Walk Alone with professional partner Dianne Buswell is 2/1 third favourite.
* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.
