California Primaries Odds: Becerra And Bass Look Solid Favourites

The US midterm elections are well under way and this week’s round of primaries is the biggest yet, not least because among the six states going to the polls is the most populous - California.

Two races stand out as particularly interesting. 

First, to succeed the ineligible Gavin Newsom as state governor. Second, a fairly tight three-way contest on betting sites for Los Angeles Mayor.

What Is A Jungle Primary?

Before getting into them, the voting system needs explaining as outsiders may not be familiar with it. 

California is one of two states, (along with Washington), which use 'jungle primaries' across the range of elections.

Elsewhere, primaries for statewide office are separated by party, with each choosing a representative to go forward to the general election. The other five states voting this week - Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota - all use this conventional system.

However in California, all candidates from all parties enter a single primary, with the top two going forward to November’s general election. Therefore, it is possible that the run-off is between two candidates from the same party.

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A Dramatic Race Has Seen Numerous Twists And Turns

Democrats are dominant across the Golden State as a whole and their best odds of retaining the governorship are understandably prohibitive at 1/8 with Ladbrokes. 

However, at moments in what has been an extremely dramatic race, it was possible to envisage their multitude of candidates splitting the vote to the extent where we could end up with an all-Republican run-off between Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco.

Initially, this was seen as a plausible target for Kamala Harris. When she didn’t throw her hat into the ring, progressive candidate Katie Porter took an early lead, only for her campaign to hit the buffers when she was caught on video being abusive to a staffer.

California senator Alex Padilla made a big market move before opting out of the race, leaving a clear run for former presidential candidate Eric Swalwell to become the mainstream Democratic challenger. Having assumed favouritism, Swalwell’s campaign then blew up over credible sexual assault allegations.

California Gubernatorial Election Odds:

Three Contenders In The Running

Swalwell’s exit left the race wide open, and two Democrats who had been previously trailing stepped forward. 

Xavier Becerra, former state attorney general and HHS Secretary under Joe Biden, is now the clear favourite. 

His main challenger on the Democratic side is Tom Steyer, a billionaire who ran against Biden in the 2020 presidential primary.

California Governor Odds:

The leading Republican will be well known to UK politicos.

Hilton was once David Cameron’s so-called 'guru', often mocked for his liberal sensitivities. 

No more. Hilton moved to California, reinvented himself as a flamethrowing Fox News pundit, and has earned the prized endorsement of Donald Trump.

Trump’s relatively late endorsement could be critical. Latest polls have him tied for second place along with Steyer, five points behind a strengthening Becerra. 

However Bianco, the other Republican, is on 12%. If some of his support heeds the Trump notice, Hilton will likely make the top two, which would make the leading Democrat an overwhelming favourite in November.

Alternatively, if Steyer and Becerra qualify to set up an all-Democrat run-off, that will be one of the most exciting general election races, especially given Steyer’s wealth and ability to flood the advertising zone.

Incumbent Bass Takes On Celebrity And Left-Wing Challengers 

The dynamics in Los Angeles are not entirely dissimilar. 

Karen Bass is seeking a second term and can boast a wide array of endorsements from the Democratic elite. She was apparently high on Biden’s shortlist for VP in 2020.

The leading Republican is Spencer Pratt - a reality TV star married to actress Heidi Montag, from The Hills. 

Whilst his candidacy has predictably captured many a headline, Pratt is up against it in an overwhelming Democratic city.

Raman Bid Has Shaken Up The Race

What might have been a simple re-election bid for Bass has, however, been confused by a third candidate. 

Nithya Raman is a city councillor, on the socialist wing of the Democratic party. Her reputation stems primarily from housing - authoring a rent cap, pushing a 'mansion tax' and opposing restrictions on homeless encampments.

Raman previously endorsed Bass and has a history of conflict with her party’s elite in the state. 

She may have designs on being LA's answer to New York’s Zohran Mamdani, but her total lack of big endorsements, (even from the left), bodes far less well than his successful campaign.

Los Angeles Mayor Odds:

A credible poll last week put Raman almost tied with Bass so it is possible she makes the run-off.

In that scenario, she might have a chance of gaining further against an incumbent who is far from popular, and would be very beatable among a less one-sided electorate.

That survey may be an outlier though, and included 10% of undecideds, which earlier polls had indicated swing towards Bass.

It is very hard to see the incumbent not reaching the run-off. If Bass faces Pratt, odds of 1/2 will look superb value, and the suspicion is she'd ultimately see off Raman either in the general as the socialist would be toxic to Pratt’s supporters.

* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.

Who will win the California gubernatorial election and the Los Angeles mayoral fight? Leave your comments in the box below!